If Erdogan extends his 20-year rule, Turkey’s election will decide

The Second-Role of Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan During the 2008 Presidential Elections: “Make Turkey Muslim and Great Again”

In the second-round of Turkey’s presidential elections, which will be held on July 24, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is seen as the favorite to win a new five-year term after coming just short of an easy victory in the first round.

As they rushed to appeal to Turkey’s hardline nationalists, the candidates have hardened their tone against refugees and Kurds.

Kilicdaroglu made a desperate attempt to reach nationalist voters in the first place, but he would not hold peace talks with Kurds if he is elected.

That message has clearly reached both Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu. Erdogan has launched a campaign to build housing for 1 million Syrians who are returning to northern Syria.

“Coming from home … I didn’t see many Turks on the road,” she says. “Syrians, Afghans, Arabs, that’s all. She says that no one speaks Turkish and that they speak in foreign languages. This won’t get better, it will get worse.

Turkey hosts the world’s largest refugee population, with close to 4 million people fleeing Syria and other countries. But Turkey has joined European nations in pulling back the welcome mat.

Akyol says the underlying message from Turkey’s leader is more like: “All good, pious Muslims should vote for [Erdogan] because he’s their savior, he’s reviving the glory of the Ottoman Empire — he’s making Turkey Muslim and great again.”

The economy likely won’t be the deciding factor in Turkey’s elections, according to Mustafa Akyol, an analyst at the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank in Washington, D.C.

But despite the hard times facing Turkish families, Erdogan has continued to draw support from his base — which includes religious Muslim, conservative and working-class people who felt largely ignored under previous governments.

If Erdogan is re-elected, Osman worries that the economy will fall apart before he serves out his term. He says the economic policy of the president is not sustainable.

Turkey’s official annual inflation climbed to a whopping 85% last October, before easing to just below 44% in April, although independent economists estimate the actual rate is much higher.

Some economists say this was largely due to Erdogan’s pushing the Turkish central bank to repeatedly lower interest rates to spur economic growth, despite warnings that could depress the currency and send inflation soaring.

Like many people in Turkey, Osman keeps a close eye on the value of the Turkish lira, and lately the news has been depressing. When Erdogan began as prime minister, the conversion rate was roughly 1.50 liras to the U.S. dollar. The lira dropped to a new low of 20 liras to the dollar.

A narrowly won referendum in Turkey scrapped the country’s parliamentary system of governance in favor of a powerful office that was formerly a ceremonial role. He was the president for the first time in the executive presidency in the election that followed.

Osman is standing outside of a currency exchange and he says Erdogan has had time in power. Osman doesn’t want his name to be known because he is worried about being retaliated against for speaking to the foreign media about the election.

The world is closely watching, as the candidates’ opposing visions for Turkey — an important NATO member — could have implications for security, immigration and other areas of global interest.

Kilicdaroglu, 74, was backed by a coalition of parties ranging from secularists, Islamists and nationalists, and put up the strongest opposition Erdogan and his ruling party have seen in years. He promised to restore Turkey’s governing system back to the original parliamentary democracy, instead of the executive presidency it became after a constitutional referendum in 2017.

Turkish voters head to the polls for the second time in two weeks on Sunday, in one of the most consequential presidential races in the republic’s history.

Turkey’s independence campaign in the aftermath of the May 14 vote: Erdogan’s anti-AK leader vs. his anti-government ambitions

Turkey vetoed Sweden’s bid to join the alliance and purchased Russian missile-defense systems, which prompted the United States to oust Turkey from a U.S.-led fighter-jet project. But Erdogan’s government also helped broker a crucial deal that allowed Ukrainian grain shipments and averted a global food crisis.

Strong voter turnout is expected again Sunday, reflecting voters’ continued dedication to elections in a country where freedom of expression and assembly are not allowed.

The two men had wildly different visions for Turkey. Erdogan, 69, led a divisive campaign in which he presented himself as the leader who would make Turkey a global power, pushing his trademark religious nationalist rhetoric, and accusing his opponent of being linked with terrorists and a pawn of Western nations.

In a bid to woo voters hit hard by inflation, he has increased wages and pensions and subsidized electricity and gas bills, while showcasing Turkey’s homegrown defense industry and infrastructure projects. He made a promise to rebuild areas that were hit by an earthquake and construct 319,000 homes within a year. He is seen as a source of stability by many.

“Kilicdaroglu’s party has some unresolved historic baggage with many voters, and he struggled with presenting himself as an alternative to Erdogan, who’s seen as a much more charismatic leader,” Coskun said.

The AAK party and its allies retained a majority in parliament after the legislative election that took place on May 14. Parliamentary elections will not be repeated Sunday.

Following the May 14 vote, international observers also pointed to the criminalization of dissemination of false information and online censorship as evidence that Erdogan had an “unjustified advantage.” The elections show the strength of Turkey’s democracy, according to observers.

“When Kilicdaroglu Wins [Erdogan] Will Not Reverse His Course”: Arabic Sensitor Selim Koru

At several campaign rallies, Erdogan referred to the mountains in Iraq where the leadership of the PKK was based as where Kilicdaroglu received his orders.

The election was being held as the country marked the 100th anniversary of its establishment as a republic, following the collapse of the Ottoman Empire.

The win cements his third term in power and signifies the endurance of his one-man executive rule, despite mounting grievances against him in Turkey, including his unorthodox economic policies, poor response to a devastating earthquake and diminishing democratic freedoms.

“There’s absolutely no reason to think that [Erdogan] would reverse course or soften his approach,” said political analyst Selim Koru, both on domestic issues and international affairs.