There is a wild card in the outlook for the upcoming season in the Atlantic
The Atlantic Hurricane Season is Looking Rather Like It Has Been Last Until El Nio: Preparing for the Next-Generation Atlantic Hurricanes
After a few years of heightened risk, the Atlantic hurricane season is shaping up to be average. It was thanks to an unusual weather pattern called La Nia, which ended this month, and the opposite of it, El Nio, which is expected to develop soon. The caveat is that there’s more uncertainty in this year’s seasonal forecast than normal because of unusually warm temperatures in the Atlantic.
The ocean water in the area where hurricanes form is expected to stay warm throughout the entire season, which runs through November. That’s part of a global trend of rising ocean temperatures due to climate change, although scientists are still trying to understand what is driving this year’s record-breaking ocean heat.
Officials warned of the need to be prepared even with a near-normal season. It only takes a single storm to destroy a community, said Rick Spinrad, administrator of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration. “If one of those named storms is hitting your home or your community, it’s very serious.”
Making a plan for how to evacuate, getting ready for power outages and caring for elderly family members and people with disabilities are some of the things you have to think about.
A Strange Mixture of Forces brewing in the Atlantic during the 2000-2020 Season of the NOAA and NOAA Storm Seasons. The Typhoon Mawar Case in Guam
Between 12 and 17 storms are projected to grow strong enough for a name, with wind speeds at least 39 miles per hour. Of those named storms, five to nine are expected to intensify into hurricanes. NOAA also anticipates up to four major hurricanes this year. There was an average of over fourteen named storms, seven hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes per season between 1991 and 2020.
According to the forecast by the National oceanic and Atmospheric administration, the upcoming Atlantic storm season will be “near-normal”.
More intense storms have developed in the Atlantic as a result of La Nia. Climate patterns such as La Nia and El Nio can affect the weather around the world. In the Atlantic, La Niña tends to reduce vertical wind shear that otherwise might have prevented a tropical storm from intensifying.
Similar to NOAA, another seasonal forecast in April from Colorado State University predicted a “slightly below-average” season. It also emphasized the outsize uncertainty in this season’s forecast based on the strange mix of forces brewing in the Atlantic this year.
Typhoon Mawar just dealt a heavy blow to Guam, a US territory in the Pacific where the storm season starts a little earlier. Mawar became the strongest storm to hit the territory in two decades when it made landfall on Wednesday evening.
There is a quite disturbing scene out there in Guam. We are looking out the door, and it looks like the jungle used to be. It looks like a scene from the movie Twister, with trees just thrashed apart … The National Weather Service forecaster said this morning that most of Guam is dealing with a major mess that is going to take weeks to clean up.
Super Typhoon Mawar: Bringing Down the Grenadine’s Throat with the Continuum, And Its Predictions
The storm shows how important preparation is for the upcoming Atlantic season. “As we are seeing the impacts of super Typhoon Mawar, what we are seeing is that these types of events are increasing and intensifying more rapidly,” she said at the press conference today. “Regardless of the number of named storms that are out there, regardless of the time of year with whether we’re in the peak of hurricane season or not, it just takes one.”
