Turkey’s president has built power over the course of two decades

Kemal Kilicdaroglu in Turkey: The Rise and Fall of the Kurtadish-Kemaliyev

For the first time in presidential system history, 50% of the vote must be won by Erdogan. Going into Sunday’s election, Erdogan and his main opponent, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, are neck and neck in the polls.

The economic crisis in Turkey has lost support for its leader, and his government faced criticism for the slow response to the earthquakes of February.

There are now two challengers to Erdogan in the election — after a third dropped out Thursday — but Kilicdaroglu has been the more prominent opposition candidate by far. Over the years, he’s built a record of consistency. He was an accountant and has headed the country’s social security administration — once winning “Bureaucrat of the Year.” He became the head of the secular party when he served in parliament.

The Kilicdaroglu rallies draw a younger crowd, with his supporters saying he represents a needed change and that he offers a more moderate leadership.

Kilicdaroglu’s campaign in Turkey: From democracy to authoritarianism, the fate of democracy and the West to the future of Europe

If no candidate gets at least 50% of the vote, there will be a second round on May 28. Some argue that the fate of democracy is at stake in a country with 85 million people.

But Turkey’s geographic place in the world probably requires it to maintain ties open to Iran, Russia and Syria. The pressure may increase on the Syrians to leave. Anti-immigrant sentiment has grown as the economy has worsened — even though the Syrians have boosted local economies.

The United States and its NATO allies have been ignored by the Turkish leader. He purchased Russian missile systems, which caused the U.S. to suspend its plan to supply Turkey with F-35 war planes. Kurds are allies of the U.S. in the fight against Islamic State, which is why he attacked them in Syria. He blocked Sweden’s admission into NATO, over claims that the countries shelter PKK sympathizers in Turkey.

Kilicdaroglu’s campaign states he would try to smooth things over. If he wins, he says he would bring Turkey closer to the West politically, economically and culturally, and restart attempts to join the European Union that lost steam under Erdogan years ago. And he’d be expected to reassure world leaders concerned that Turkey is sliding from democracy to authoritarianism.

He was seen as an exciting reformer, champion of the working class, and also of the faithful Muslims,who had been neglected by previous secular and military-led governments. He has improved housing and government services for many – building the kind of loyalty that could still give him a win in the vote.

After a 2016 coup attempt his government jailed journalists, critics and thousands of perceived adversaries, making them even more repressive. Tens of thousands have been purged from government jobs, suspected — often without evidence — of supporting the coup attempt. He stacked the courts with his choices, and even replaced elected mayors in some cities with his loyalists.

In February, when earthquakes devastated much of southern Turkey and killed more than 50,000, people blamed the government for its slow response and corrupt and lax building code enforcement, all of which contributed to the death toll. For centralizing power around his presidency, many blamed the failures on the man himself.

How the earthquakes in Turkey affected the lives of millions of people, including the death of Suzy Hansen, the first day of February’s earthquake

He leads a group called the “The Table of Six,” which consists of six parties that compete against each other. It contains a nationalist party and a Kurdish party that are usually at odds. Kurds, who make up 20% of the population, could be important swing voters.

The consolidation of power under a strong presidency is a thing of the past, thanks to the joint platform created by the parties. New laws increase freedom of expression and individual rights, as well as greater independence for the courts, will be included in the coalition’s promises.

More power would be given to the electoral commission. That comes amid worries that Erdogan already has enough power — either in the government or among his backers in the streets — to overturn any election that he appears to lose.

The Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute believes that the defeat of the man who invented nativist politics would mean something in the world.

The scientists at the Middle East Technical University in Ankara have found that corruption and safety violations may have contributed to the higher death tolls from the earthquakes.

“It’s a parallel that almost every Turkish person made in the first days after this earthquake in February,” said journalist and writer Suzy Hansen, who lived and reported from Turkey for over a decade. “He was going to fix the economy, and he was going to eradicate corruption.”

“People are hungry in Turkey,” Hansen said. “People cannot afford meat. They can’t afford food. They can’t pay for disposable diapers. They are really struggling.”

An Erdogan-Like Change After the 2016 Turkey Military Cosmic Decay: A Comment on the “Inflationary Crisis in Turkey”

Inflation has come down since reaching a high of more than 85% in October. The Turkish lira has lost 76% of its value during Erdogan’s second term as president.

“People are angry,” Hansen said. The man had said that life is great if you watch the Turkish news, which is controlled by the president. I can’t afford onions.

According to Cagaptay, “Erdogan has demonized a number of groups from secularists to Kurds to liberals to social democrats.” “When you add them up, that makes up about half of Turkey’s population.”

This change came less than a year after a failed military coup in July 2016. More than 300 people died in the clashes between the military and Erdogan supporters during the coup attempt. Erdogan responded to the attempted overthrow of his government with mass arrests and large purges across the military, government and civil service.

“He became head of state, head of government, head of ruling party, head of the national police and head of the military as chief of staff. He became powerful as Turkey’s new sultan.