How much longer will it take to vote for Blue no matter who?

The Understatement of Voter Identity: Why White Whites Voted for Donald Trump and Why They Don’t Against Republican Party Candidate Candidates

It wasn’t because of an increase in Republican votes that Trump won the election. Whites with relatively moderate racial resentment scores gave Trump the most support compared to prior Republican candidates. The distribution of racial resentment in the population explains the surprising finding.

A coalition of racial minorities, especially Blacks, are sympathetic to the challenges faced by minority groups in America. There is a link between race and education, and between more educated whites and less educated whites.

According to exit polls the white working class voted for Donald Trump over Joe Biden, because they did not have a four year college degree. In the 2022 election, white working-class voters backed Republican House candidates by almost the identical margin, 66-32.

A strongly related word is an understatement. On a 17-point scale ranking the strength of Republican primary voters’ white identity from lowest to highest, support for Trump grew consistently at each step — from 2 percent at the bottom to 81 percent at the highest level.

The Democratic Party Is Not Stable: Demographic Critics of the Progressive Left and the Importance of Blackness in the Presidency

There is a group of people that believe that the Democratic coalition is more vulnerable than Wronski suggests. Ryan Enos, a political scientist at Harvard, emailed to say, “If you’re a Democrat, you might worry that the coalition is not stable.”

It is my belief that much of the political rhetoric written by college-educated liberal democrats is focused on social signaling to improve their psychological and social standing with other college educated liberal democrats and not policy that would reduce racial gaps in economic well-being, civil rights protections, and other quality

Paul Begala, a Democratic strategist, is an explicit critic of the left wing of the party. “It is plain to me that the Democrats’ greatest challenge is the progressive left,” Begala wrote in an email:

Only 12 percent of Democrats and Democratic leaning independents are members of the Progressive Left. This group is extremely liberal in every policy domain and has the highest amount of White non-Hispanic in the coalition. The other groups are more like half White non-Hispanic.

Black voters are both the most loyal Democrats and the most sensible, practical, strategic, and moderate voters. President Biden moved the South Carolina primary ahead of overwhelmingly white Iowa and New Hampshire to keep African-American voters engaged in the presidential race.

This disproportionally white wing of the party, as I have previously discussed, provided crucial support for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ayanna Pressley when they ran for Congress in 2018, putting them over the top in their first primary victories over powerful Democratic incumbents.

Many White liberals live in enclaves of affluence, sheltered from the economic and personal insecurity of the low-income communities. Liberals in the sixties cared a lot about poverty or economic security issues, but not as much about identity issues around gender and race.

It was found that a popular narrative about how Trump won office was incorrect. Hillary Clinton argued that Trump supporters could be placed in a “basket of deplorables.” In the race for the presidency, election-night pundits and some academics have claimed that Trump won due to his appealing to white Americans’ racist attitudes. We show that this conventional wisdom isn’t complete. Trump’s supporters were less xenophobic than prior Republican candidates’, less sexist, had lower animus to minority groups, and lower levels of racial resentment. The voters of Trump were more tolerant and understanding than the voters of prior Republican candidates.

There are of course many complexities in characterizing changes in aggregate election outcomes over time. Several pieces of research into the 2016 election, including our book, “Identity Crisis,” and this interesting paper by Grimmer, Marble and Tanigawa-Lau, find that people’s vote choices in that election were more strongly related to their views on “identity-inflected issues” than they had been in prior elections. That is why our book argues that these issues are central to how we interpret the outcome in 2016.

I asked the three people for their assessment of the paper. They affirmed the crucial role of racial resentment, in a one-paragraph response.

The Grimmer paper, Engelhardt continued, “encourages us to take a step back and focus on the big picture for understanding elections: where do most votes come from and are these patterns consistent across elections?” According to Engelhardt, along these lines.

to highlight the fact that, if we don’t account for a group’s size in the population (e.g., how many racially resentful people there are) and how many of them actually turn out to vote, we could incorrectly infer that certain groups have become more or less supportive of particular parties over time. I fully agree with this point and really do think it’s extremely important for people to understand.

Alexander George Theodoridis is a political scientist at the University of Massachusetts-Amherst. “It is a nice reminder for scholars and, especially, the media, that it is important to think carefully about base rates.”

The Flying Color of Donald Trump: Comments on a Political Scientist’s Critical Distasteful Analysis of the 2004 U.S. Presidential Campaign

Republican partisanship passed with flying colors after Donald Trump was elected as President of the United States. The election was close, and the majority of G.O.P. voters chose to sit it out or vote for a democrat due to the distastefulness of the candidacy of Trump.

Sean Westwood, a political scientist at Dartmouth, was explicitly supportive of the Grimmer-Marble-Tanigawa-Lau methodology. Writing by email, Westwood argued:

It is an interesting academic exercise to predict who will win the vote within a specific group, but it is more fundamental to elections to understand how many voters candidates will gain from each group. The limitation in Sides-Vavreck-Mason-Jardina is that they find a strong relationship between racial attitudes and Trump support, but while predictive of individual vote choice these results lead to relatively few total votes for Trump.

Westwood said that, while Trump found support from both racist and moderates, it was clear that this was not a path to future victory.