Your Monday evening meeting
Xi pledged to keep the Communist Party united in the midst of war: A statement from the leader of a major strategic bloc
In order to secure a third term in office, the Communist Party congress this week, the president spoke about keeping the party united under his rule.
Xi’s desire to emerge as the de facto leader of a major strategic bloc, but one with the prestige of a statesman, creates an opportunity for the West to manage the relationship in a way that achieves President Biden’s efforts to compete vigorously while avoiding a war with China. He stated it was an objective while talking about the Chinese balloon that flew through the US earlier this month.
He warned the nation that they need to stand together behind the party to cope with a changed world he depicted as increasingly hostile. He did not mention the United States but his distrust of the world’s other great power was obvious when he told his soldiers to guard against it.
There are dangers in the midst of peace. “Get the house in good repair before rain comes, and prepare to undergo the major tests of high winds and waves, and even perilous, stormy seas.”
The importance of economic reform was promoted by the leader, but he mostly avoided the subject and focused on national security and corruption. His speech made it clearer than ever that China is moving away from the open, just and prosperous nation that many Chinese elites once thought Xi would usher in, my colleague Li Yuan writes in her New New World column.
In other news from China, the government said it was delaying indefinitely the release of economic data that had been expected to show continued lackluster performance.
The End of the World: The United States and the Aftermath of Ukraine’s February 6 Deceleration: How Cold Was the U.S.?
A professor at Arizona State University, Peter Bergen is a vice president at New America and CNN’s national security analyst. Bergen is the author of The Cost of Chaos. The views expressed in this commentary are his own. CNN has more opinion on it.
To be sure, the United States has problems aplenty, including deep political polarization, raging inflation, high inequality, a horrific Covid-19 death toll, shrinking life expectancy, frequent mass shootings, unaffordable housing in many places, and intense battles over abortion. The widespread denial of President Joe Biden’s 2020 election victory among Republicans raises serious questions about the health of the nation’s democracy. Still, in many respects, the US looks much better than much of the rest of the world.
China’s ties with the West and many of its neighbors plummeted significantly over the origins of the coronavirus, trade, territorial claims, Beijing’s human rights record and its close partnership with Russia despite the devastating war in Ukraine.
A year ago, the reverberations of the January 6 attack still loomed large. Russia was accusing the United States of “hysteria” for claiming Moscow planned to invade Ukraine. Even Ukraine was skeptical. The leaders of China and Russia appeared well prepared to take on the world. Democracy was on the defensive across the globe from South America to Asia. A historic test was about to play out.
NATO is stronger than ever with the US leading and providing significant amounts of weaponry to Ukraine. NATO is also adding the formerly non-aligned countries of Finland and Sweden to the alliance. While former President Donald Trump kept threatening to pull the US out of NATO, today the alliance has new relevance.
American weaponry such as anti-tank Javelin missiles and HIMARS that are guided by aGPS, and US technologies such as the Starlink satellite-based broadband internet communication system, have helped to turn the tide.
Those adamant denials changed later, with Iran claiming it sold weapons before the war started, but those were not being used in Ukraine. The documents show the same drones that Iran has used in the Middle East.
The Power of the People: A Brief History of Xi Jinping’s Dynamical Correlations in the Post-Covid-19 Era
The national congress of the Chinese Communist Party this week is expected to coronate President XI jin as its leader for the third time, making him the most powerful leader in the country since Mao.
Also a mirage was Xi Jinping’s brilliance. After nearly three years of draconian Covid-19 lockdowns, the country saw unprecedented protests demanding an end to Xi’s signature Zero Covid policy, with some even calling for regime change. Suddenly, Xi lifted all pandemic restrictions with seemingly no transition or preparation.
At the same time, China’s imprisonment of up to two million Uyghurs and other ethnic minorities, according to US State Department estimates, and its costly loans for its “Belt and Road” policies have not endeared it to much of the planet. Earlier this year, Pew polling found “negative views of China remain at or near historic highs in many of the 19 countries” where the organization polled.
China is watching closely, too. China’s fighting forces will be more focused on Taiwan going forward, as a result of new appointments of top military leaders from the country’s Eastern Theater Command. He told his military to focus all of its energy on fighting.
Iran is being riven by countrywide street protests that are threatening the regime as much as any protests have done in the past.
In the western hemisphere, Venezuela is also in free fall under its socialist government; almost seven million people have left the country since 2014, a quarter of the population.
China, Iran, Russia, and Venezuela share a common feature; they are autocracies – not exactly a form of government known for serving the interests of the people.
The U.S. Economy Is Never Good: The End of the Brexit Debattle for the UK, and Donald Trump is Rejoind
European countries are generally faring better than the UK but still face their own problems. The dollar has been strong against the Euro as the Fed increases interest rates, and the American economy continues to perform well. Indeed, the US has the lowest unemployment rate in five decades. The US is the world’s largest producer of both gas and oil.
Former Prime Minister Boris Johnson ran a campaign in 2019 to “Get Brexit Done,” completing the withdrawal from the EU in January 2020. The British should be freed from the European Union’s obligations.
It has been proven to be an economic debacle. Europeans were free to move to the UK for work and many jobs that would have been filled by them are not being filled. The per capita income of the UK has grown by only 3.8% since the vote, compared to the EU which has grown by 8.5%.
The UK Prime Minister proposed tax cuts for the wealthy in September, compounding the harm from Britain’s leaving the European Union. The pound fell to historic lows after the tax cut decision was reversed, but the damage had been done. She announced her resignation under pressure Thursday, on track to becoming Britain’s shortest-serving prime minister.
And what about that bilateral US-UK trade deal that Conservative leaders said would supposedly wave a magic wand over the UK’s economic mess? Truss told reporters in September, “There (aren’t) currently any negotiations taking place with the US, and I don’t have an expectation that those are going to start in the short to medium term.” This is government speak acknowledging that the Americans have said, “How about never, is it ever good?” to the British.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/20/opinions/america-is-great-again-bergen/index.html
Xi, Putin, and the United States of America: a sit-down on the fundamental differences of the two powers in the era of Covid-19
The use of American vaccine technology by Pfizer and Moderna helped turn the tide against Covid-19 in the United States. By contrast, the Chinese and Russian vaccines have been far less effective against Covid-19.
The United States’ continuing attraction is highlighted by the treatment of immigration as a problem by Americans. Meanwhile, hundreds of thousands of Russians have fled their homeland since Putin announced a partial mobilization in the war against Ukraine, and tens of thousands have left Hong Kong after the Chinese takeover of the formerly autonomous city.
The next year, Xi paid a reciprocal visit to the US at the invitation of Biden, who hosted his Chinese counterpart for dinner at his residency after a series of meetings at the White House, State Department and the Pentagon. Biden also flew to Los Angeles to meet Xi on the last leg of his trip.
The leaders of the United States of America and Russia met face-to-face at the Group of 20 summit in Indonesia on Monday. They talked about the war in Ukraine, military tension in the Taiwan Strait and the North Korean missile tests.
Biden, meanwhile, arrived in Asia following a better-than-expected performance by his party in the US midterm elections – with the Democrats projected to keep the Senate in a major victory. Asked Sunday whether the results allowed him to go into Monday’s face-to-face with a stronger hand, Biden voiced confidence. He told reporters that he was coming in stronger.
The meeting is high-stakes and could have dire consequences. In a world reeling from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Covid-19 pandemic and the devastation of climate change, the two major powers need to work together more than ever to instill stability – instead of driving deeper tensions along geopolitical fault lines.
There is no idea whether the world’s two superpowers can work out their fundamental differences and put an end to their intensifying rivalry.
A senior White House official said Thursday Biden wants to use the talks to “build a floor” for the relationship – in other words, to prevent it from free falling into open conflict. The main objective of the sit-down is not about reaching agreements or deliverables – the two leaders will not release any joint statement afterward – but about gaining a better understanding of each other’s priorities and reducing misconceptions, according to the US official.
US national security adviser Jake Sullivan reinforced the message Saturday to reporters aboard Air Force One, noting the meeting is unlikely to result in any major breakthroughs or dramatic shifts in the relationship.
In Beijing, there is no hope for a reset with Washington. Shi Yinhong, an international relations professor at Renmin University, said it would be an “enormous over-expectation” to believe the meeting can lead to any lasting and significant improvement in bilateral ties.
The Chinese think the goal of the US is to keep China down. According to Scott Kennedy, senior adviser in Chinese business and economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the US thinks that China wants the world to be safer for authoritarian states and that it would push them out of Asia.
Each side blames the other entirely for the state of the relationship and each believes they are faring better than the other in the situation, said Kennedy, who has recently returned from a weeks-long visit to China – a rare opportunity in recent years due to China’s zero-Covid border restrictions.
“The Chinese think they’re winning, the Americans think they’re winning, and so they’re willing to bear these costs. They think the other side isn’t likely to make any major changes. All of those things reduce the likelihood of big changes.
The fact that the two leaders are having a face-to-face conversation is positive, experts say. Keeping dialogue open is crucial for reducing risks of misunderstanding and miscalculations, especially when suspicions run deep and tensions run high.
Given the possibility of rule for life and the fact that Xi has secured a third term with a tighter grip of power, direct communication is more important than ever. Sullivan said that there is no one in the system who can communicate authoritatively other than the president of China.
On Wednesday, Biden told a news conference that he wants to “lay out what each of our red lines are” when he sits down with Xi, but experts say that might not be as straightforward as it sounds.
“I would love to be a fly on the wall to see that conversation because I don’t think that the US or China has been very precise about what its red lines are. Kennedy of CSIS said that neither side has clearly explained what positive rewards the other side would reap from staying within the red lines.
Washington and Beijing agreed that they would resume climate talks after they were frozen following Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. The White House said that the leaders agreed to strengthen the communication of senior officials.
China responded by launching large scale military exercises around Taiwan that formed an effective blockade; it also halted dialogue with the US in a number of areas, from military, climate change and cross-border crime to drug trafficking.
After weeks of discussions, the two leaders are sitting in the same room and they are expected to make Taiwan their top priority. But in a sign of the contentiousness of the issue, barbs have already been traded.
Biden has said he would make no “fundamental concessions” to Xi, and Sullivan has announced plans to brief Taiwan about the talks with an aim to make Taipei feel “secure and comfortable” about US support.
But to the surprise of many, the meeting featured televised images of smiling officials, handshakes, and a commitment to reopening lines of communication on urgent global issues. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who had sparred with his Chinese counterparts at the 2021 summit in Alaska, is now expected to visit China next year.
Some progress on better communication between the US and China will be seen as a positive outcome, such as restoring suspended military talks.
The summit in Indonesia yielded two important outcomes, according to the US: A joint position that Russia must not use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine and an expected resumption of talks on climate between American and Chinese negotiators, a boost for the COP 27 global climate conference in Egypt.
Biden reported that he told the President of China that Beijing also has a responsibility to keep the Pacific region from being threatened by the destabilizing missile and nuclear activity of North Korea.
Leon Panetta – a former White House chief of staff, defense secretary and CIA chief who dealt with US-China relations for decades – expressed cautious optimism after the talks on the sidelines of the G20 summit.
Panetta believes that the meeting could be a turning point in the relationship, as it could allow both sides to start talking about issues they need to deal with.
Xi-Biden meeting in Beijing: the first face-to-face exchange between the two sides since Putin’s victory over Ukraine
“Neither side should try to remold the other in one’s own image or seek to change or even subvert the other’s system,” the Chinese Foreign Ministry said.
It involves keeping Russia out of the Ukraine region, as well as trying to keep Moscow and Beijing away from China and trying to stop them from forging stronger ties with Iran.
The alliance of autocracies would have made a lot of gains if Putin had won the war with Ukraine. Moscow has slowed its progress due to its stumbling. The deputy Secretary of State pointed out that Russia could become a problem for Beijing.
The first face-to-face exchange between the two since Biden became president took place today. It took place after both leaders had just strengthened their respective political positions at home, analysts say.
Speaking after the three-hour meeting, Biden described it as an “open and candid” discussion, saying he planned to manage the China relationship “responsibly.”
Yu warns that Monday’s meeting is just a small step towards improving relations, since it won’t resolve any substantive grievances both sides have had against each other.
The State Department said that Secretary of State Antony Blinken will also visit China in person sometime early next year to follow up on the Xi-Biden meeting.
Taiwan and the Beijing Nuclear Arms Control Challenges for the U.S.-Taiwan System: a Meeting between China and Xi
The US imposed trade restrictions on certain Semiconductor Technology last month, which are intended to hurt critical technology areas that are important to China.
The world is large enough for China and the US to prosper together, as was shown in the meeting between Biden and Xi.
On Taiwan, despite intense media speculation over Beijing’s intention, Biden said he did “not think there’s any imminent attempt on the part of China to invade Taiwan.”
But the president objected to Beijing’s “coercive and increasingly aggressive” Chinese actions in the waters around Taiwan, according to the White House readout, adding such behaviors “undermine peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and in the broader region, and jeopardize global prosperity.”
Beijing has not condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine or referred to it as such. The US and NATO are blamed for the conflict by the Kremlin.
The paper states that Beijing wanted talks to begin as soon as possible, and that nuclear weapons were off limits. Just this week Putin said he was suspending a nuclear arms control treaty with Washington.
The Chinese foreign minister said last year that he wanted the U.S. not to impede the country’s growth and that he needed the US to respect China’s claims.
Meanwhile, the U.S. has upped ties with Taiwan, with lawmakers including Pelosi visiting the island since August. Congress is considering drawing on the U.S. weapons stockpile to arm the island at American expense. Biden stressed in the press conference after meeting Xi that U.S. policy on Taiwan remains unchanged.
The stock markets of mainland China and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index surged nearly 4% on Tuesday with a boost in the wake of a disappointing G20
And while Biden came in to the G20 with a stronger position due to the narrow Democratic victory in the battle to control the Senate, he is up for reelection in two years himself.
The meeting could lay the groundwork for better ties between the world’s richest countries. There was a big jump in the stock markets in mainland China and Hong Kong on Tuesday.
Neil Thomas, senior analyst for China and Northeast Asia at Eurasia Group, said the goal of the meeting was to “build a floor” under declining relations between Beijing and Washington.
Ken Cheung, chief Asian foreign exchange strategist at Mizuho Bank, said the meeting was a positive sign that the two sides were keen to find common ground.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng
(HSI) Index rallied nearly 4% on Tuesday, on track to record a third straight day of gains. The index has increased since last Thursday because of Chinas latest policy shift towards gradual reopening of borders and a rescue package for the property sector.
The Chinese technology shares that had been battered by the regulation at home led markets higher on Tuesday. Alibaba shares shot up by 11% in Hong Kong, followed by Tencent, which was up 10%.
The reiteration of the US position on Taiwan and the One China policy by Biden was a plus. Also, they said, wasXi speaking out against the use of nuclear weapons by Russia.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/15/business/us-china-g20-meeting-stronger-ties-intl-hnk/index.html
Preliminary Xi-France Meets Macron in an In-person Diplomacy on Tuesday, the Day of the G20 Summit
“This was far more progress than we, or indeed most commentators had expected, and dominates what may otherwise turn out to have been a fairly irrelevant G20 summit,” the ING analysts said.
Leaders of the two countries last met when Albanese’s predecessor, Scott Morrison, had brief informal discussions with Xi at the G20 in Japan in 2019. Six years have passed since leaders of the two sides met face to face at the G20 meeting in the Chinese city of Hangzhou.
On Monday, the Chinese leader pushed back at a central premise of Biden’s foreign policy – the global clash between democracy and autocracy, and the willingness of Western countries to view relations with Beijing through this prism.
In a sign of Xi’s busy schedule, the Chinese leader and French President Emmanuel Macron squeezed in a meeting early on Tuesday, before both leaders showed up at the opening of the G20 summit.
“Xi stressed China’s position on the Ukraine crisis is clear and consistent, advocating a ceasefire, a stop to war and peace talks,” a readout of the bilat from Chinese state media CCTV said.
France, like other European countries, has hardened its position on China in recent years, increasingly viewing the country as a competitor and security concern.
For the majority of the pandemic Xi limited his diplomatic activities to virtual summits and video conferences, choosing to stay within China, rather than travel overseas.
The meeting of the Australian Prime Minister with the Chinese leader on Tuesday is likely to be the most significant in-person diplomacy by him that day.
The two countries have been locked in a bruising trade dispute and diplomatic freeze since early 2020, when China slapped tariffs on Australia following its call for an investigation into the origins of the coronavirus.
When Putin and Xi Metred in Canberra: A Conversation with Australian Policy Expert and Former CNN World Affairs Editor, Frida Ghitis
The lack of dialogue at the top level was pointed to by the fact that Albanese announced his meeting with Xi alone.
He said that it is not in Australia’s interest to not have a discussion with its trading partners.
“Core Chinese objectives such as its South China Sea, Taiwan and South Pacific policies are fundamentally at odds with Australia’s core interests,” said Australian policy expert John Lee, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute think tank in Washington and former national security adviser to the Australian government.
A world affairs columnist, Frida Ghitis is a former CNN producer and correspondent. She is a weekly opinion contributor to CNN, a contributing columnist to The Washington Post and a columnist for World Politics Review. The views expressed in this commentary are of her own. View more opinion on CNN.
The democratic process in the US will likely be disappointing to the autocrats who want to prove that democracy is inferior to their autocratic systems, as they like to claim. The midterms brought the American President to the table with a stronger hand to play.
As Biden and Xi were meeting, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made an emotional, triumphant return to the devastated, now liberated city of Kherson, the one provincial capital that Russian invaders had conquered.
Putin and Xi, the world’s leading autocrats, looked ascendant, unstoppable even. Western democracies appeared uncertain due to the protests against Covid-19 restrictions. Putin was preparing for triumph in Ukraine. Xi was hosting the Olympics, basking in attention, and preparing to solidify his control of China.
Putin’s adventure turned to disaster as the Ukrainians defended their country with unexpected tenacity and as Biden rallied allies in a muscular push to support Ukraine.
Putin avoided confrontations with the world’s leaders as he became a pariah on the global stage.
Putin’s meeting with Wang Yi: Relations between the two countries during the first four months of the Xi-Yinping war and their outlook for the future
To be sure, Biden is not the only leader with a strong hand. China’s leader Xi can now rule for as long as he likes after securing a third term. He does not need to worry about the elections, a critical press, or an opposition party. He is essentially the absolute ruler of a mighty country for many years to come.
It is important for the two systems to show that democracy can be defeated, and that unprovoked wars of aggression in favor of one system will not succeed.
Russian state media provided a photo of the meeting between Putin and Wang Yi, China’s top foreign policy official.
Bilateral relations between their countries and their views on regional issues are some of the topics the two leaders will discuss. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Thursday.
Mr. Putin told Mr. Wang that he was looking forward to welcoming “my friend” Xi Jinping, the Chinese leader, to Russia soon, but indicated that the meeting had yet to be confirmed. Mr. Wang said that China wanted to deepen their relationship with Russia.
The world looks different more than a year into the war, and that’s because of the dynamic between the partners.
In one of the biggest missile barrages since the beginning of the war, Russia launched missiles at eastern Ukrainian cities and villages, killing three people and damaging infrastructure.
The country’s Orthodox Christians are celebrating the Christmas holidays on January 23, which is also the day that the power grid will close, and Ukrainian officials are concerned that Russia might plunge the country into darkness.
The Rise of China: How the Covid Outbreaks Has Already Dragged the Edge on the World, and Why the Rest of the World Ignores It
China, too, is growing more isolated in its stance toward Russia, said Alfred Wu, associate professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore.
Modi told Putin that he was not ready for war and urged him to move toward peace.
“Now with domestic issues out of the way, Xi is in a better position to work on Russia,” said Stimson Center’s Sun, referring to his consolidation of power in October.
She said that trade between the two countries had grown this year due to high energy prices, and the leaders could reestablish their vows to cooperate economically.
The protests, Covid outbreak and ensuing economic toll have placed Xi in a vulnerable position, which may mean less material and public support for Russia.
Editor’s Note: A version of this story appeared in CNN’s Meanwhile in China newsletter, a three-times-a-week update exploring what you need to know about the country’s rise and how it impacts the world. This is the place to sign up.
The aftermath of China’s bungled exit from zero- Covid, which threatens to kill hundreds of thousands of people and undermine the credibility of the communist party, is the most urgent and daunting task facing the country in the new year.
After being isolated for three years from the rest of the world, life in China might finally return to normal as the nation learns to live with the virus, thanks to the haphazard reopening.
In his nationally televised New Years Eve speech, Xi said that the Covid response has now entered a new phase where tough challenges remain. Everyone is holding on, and there is light in front of them. Perseverance and solidarity mean victory, and so let’s make more effort to pull through.
The sudden lifting of restrictions last month led to an explosion of cases, with little preparation in place to deal with the surging numbers of patients and deaths.
Hospitals are overwhelmed, doctors and nurses have run out of time, and crematoriums are not able to keep up with the number of bodies.
And experts warn the worst is yet to come. While some major metropolises like Beijing may have seen the peak of the outbreak, less-developed cities and the vast rural hinterland are still bracing for more infections.
The outlook is bad. Some studies estimate the death toll could be in excess of a million, if China fails to roll out booster shots and antiviral drugs fast enough.
The government has launched a booster campaign for the elderly, but many remain reluctant to take it due to concerns about side effects. Fighting vaccine hesitancy will require significant time and effort, when the country’s medical workers are already stretched thin.
The Long-Term Growth of China During the December 26 Epidemic: The Implications for the Future of the Chinese Economy and Foreign Trade
The economies reliant on Chinese demand will be helped if China’s growth picks up. There will be more international travel and production. But rising demand will also drive up prices of energy and raw materials, putting upward pressure on global inflation.
“In the short run, I believe China’s economy is likely to experience chaos rather than progress for a simple reason: China is poorly prepared to deal with Covid,” said Bo Zhuang, senior sovereign analyst at Loomis, Sayles & Company, an investment firm based in Boston.
The economy is likely to recover after March. In a recent research report, HSBC economists projected a 0.5% contraction in the first quarter, but 5% growth for 2023.
Despite all this uncertainty, Chinese citizens are celebrating the partial reopening of the border after the end of quarantine for international arrivals and the resumption of outbound travel.
Though some residents voiced concern online about the rapid loosening of restrictions during the outbreak, many more are eagerly planning trips abroad – travel websites recorded massive spikes in traffic within minutes of the announcement on December 26.
Several Chinese nationals told CNN they had been unable to return to their homes for a long time due to the lengthy hospital stay. That stretch meant major life moments missed and spent apart: graduations, weddings, childbirths, deaths.
Some countries have offered a warm welcome back, with foreign embassies and tourism departments posting invitations to Chinese travelers on Chinese social media sites. Travelers from China are required to pass tests in many countries, with others being more cautious.
Several health experts have criticized the targeted travel restrictions as being scientifically ineffective and alarmist with the risk of inciting further racism and xenophobia, despite the fact that officials from these countries pointed to the risk of new variants emerging from China.
As China emerges from its self-imposed isolation, all eyes are on whether it will be able to repair its reputation and relations that soured during the pandemic.
The Challenges of Democracy and Autocracy: The Implications for the Future of the World’s First Republic and the Legacy of the Cold War
The lack of top-level face-to-face diplomacy certainly didn’t help, neither did the freeze on in-person exchanges among policy advisers, business groups and the wider public.
The United States, along with France, the Netherlands and Italy are all expected to visit Beijing this year, as communication lines are back open.
In the new year, tensions may again flare over Taiwan, technological containment, as well as China’s support for Russia – which Xi underlined during a virtual meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on December 30.
“Despite an international situation full of instability and uncertainty,China is ready to work together with Belarusians to promote the healthy and stable development of ties between the two countries at a high level,” Xi was stated to be telling Lukashenko.
If China begins supplying the arsenal for Putin’s army, all current thinking about the course of the war could be upended. Mr. Zelensky is concerned about other countries as well.
The question was an open one. At the time, many believed that autocracy would not only win, but would prove to be the better system. How many believe that today?
How many believe Russia, China or Iran offer a better model than an open society with all its foibles and challenges? How many believe the US would be better off with a more autocratic president?
The very public display of its fatal flaws have diminished the appeal of autocracy in the past year, but the contest between democracy and autocracy is far from over. When leaders can’t be told they are wrong, they will make mistakes. Even if the ruler leads the nation toward a cliff, the ruler’s power and ruthlessness will keep no one from challenging his wisdom.
The autocracy brothers wanted the world to think their system was superior, a message that would preemptively quiet any doubts at home. For 16 consecutive years, according to the non-partisan democracy monitor Freedom House, democracy was losing ground. About 20% of the world’s population lives in what the organization called a “Free countries”, according to their research.
In the year 2022, global strongmen struggled and self-assured “geniuses” like Musk, who seemed to side with autocrats, revealed their own flaws.
Some of the credit goes to Putin, whose imperialist ploy to conquer neighboring Ukraine struck like a thunderbolt. No longer was freedom a vague ideal. The battle for democracy was no longer a metaphor. This was a real war with missiles, carnage and death.
The invasion strengthened NATO in a way not seen since the 1960’s. Sweden and the Finns wanted to join in order to keep their neutrality.
What will the Iranian “Woman, Life, Freedom” tell us about the “Democracy in Iran”? — Can the rest of the world respond?
The theocracy in Iran did not sit well with women. More violence was committed by the regime, killing hundreds, according to human rights organizations.
No one would have guessed that the activists of “Woman, Life, Freedom” would defy the regime and its brutality. How far will they go? How far will the regime go to snuff them out? Will the rest of the world respond?
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/06/opinions/democracy-china-russia-2023-ghitis/index.html
Donald Trump is a Damp-Squib: The Case Against Counterregime in the Age of Digital Democracy? When Donald Trump and Xi met
Donald Trump has started a new presidential campaign. It was a lead balloon, called a damp squib by the British. He’s becoming an increasingly isolated, rather pathetic figure after many of his top choices failed in the midterm elections and election deniers fared badly. Even his calls for Republicans to unite behind Kevin McCarthy as the new House Speaker seemed to do little to quell the rebellion this week. The struggle over the speakership was messy, but democracy was on display. Trump’s legal troubles seem endless.
The doppelganger of Trump in Brazil lost his reelection bid. Like Trump, he refused to admit defeat or attend the inauguration of the man who defeated him, President Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva. Instead, a grim Bolsonaro decamped to Florida.
After Boris Johnson lost the UK’s prime ministership and Liz Truss was humiliated, non-populist centrist, Rishi Sunak, became prime minister. When Johnson led his country out of the EU, populists across Europe wanted to follow in his footsteps. We don’t hear that anymore. French President Emmanuel Macron defeated his populist opponent, Marine Le Pen who, like other European populists, had to run from her record of closeness to Putin.
In February of last year, Putin stood alongside the Chinese President in a show of strength. Putin was still denying plans to invade Ukraine, which he would do just after the end of the Beijing Winter Olympics.
In addition to fortifying NATO and strengthening alliances, which President Joe Biden’s administration has accomplished with great success, the US must aim to forestall the creation of a credible, unified force of aggressive antidemocratic regimes.
The rule of the strongest works when you can’t win, which is how Russia’s plans started to fall apart, and why China had to rethink its commitment.
Is Putin in or out of friendship with Xi? It seems as though Xi would like it both ways. He wants to have a good relationship with a country that invaded its neighbor and is trying to present himself as an alternative to the democratic Western model for other countries.
Russia has bought some shell from North Korea, a dictatorship which denies its involvement in a war that is morally questionable.
Russia and Iran have both been made pariahs due to their repressive regimes and now Tehran is being courted by both Moscow and Beijing.
Raisi is the first Iranian president to visit China in 20 years. The trip is intended to implement the 25-year strategic cooperation agreement that the two countries reached at the meeting of the Sino-Sino organization.
The Beijing-Tehran ties have raised alarms among both Democrats and Republicans in Congress, who fear China’s support could help Tehran evade sanctions related to its nuclear and conventional weapons programs, support for terrorism and human rights abuses.
There is an internal contradiction in his dual goals. If you want to elevate your standing to that of a respected global leader, it’s hard to create an alliance of rule-breaking autocrats and assorted dictators, and then expect other countries to join enthusiastically.
China is urged to resume peace talks in the policy document. It said that dialogue and negotiation are the only viable solution to the Ukrainian problem, but did not provide any details.
Territorial and sovereignty integrity of all countries will be respected in China’s proposal, Wang said, adding that Beijing will continue to work for peace.
At the Munich Security Conference on Saturday, Wang addressed a room of European officials as “dear friends” and touted China’s commitment to peace, while apparently attempting to drive a wedge between Europe and the US.
CNN asked European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Saturday whether she believed, after hearing Wang’s speech, that China is listening to Europe’s message to not support Russia. She said the opposite has been seen so far.
In September 2022, Putin conceded Beijing had “questions and concerns” over the invasion, in what appeared to be a veiled admission of diverging views on the war.
Wang Yi – who was promoted as Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s top foreign policy adviser last month – is due to arrive in Moscow this week as part of his eight-day Europe tour, a trip that brings into focus China’s attempted diplomatic balancing act since Russia tanks rolled into Ukraine a year ago.
China’s War with the Intel: How We Are Trying to End Warfare and What We Can Do about It, and Why We Need It
According to CNN, US officials were worried enough with the intel that they gave it to allies and partners. The issue was raised and warned against in a meeting with Wang on the sidelines of the conference.
“The Secretary was quite blunt in warning about the implications and consequences of China providing material support to Russia or assisting Russia with systematic sanctions evasion,” a senior State Department official told reporters.
This warfare can’t continue. We need to think about what efforts we can make to bring this warfare to an end,” Wang said at the conference.
Multiple sourcesfamiliar with US and European intelligence told CNN that it included items like helmets and flak jackets. Russia has requested lethal weapons systems for use on the battlefield in Ukranian, but China has refrained because it does not want to be seen as a pariah on the world stage.
A serious problem for us and in our relationship is what we worry about because we know they’re considering lethal support.
The vague mention of the proposal made some in the West suspicious of any support China might give to its northern neighbor.
On his way to Russia, China’s top diplomat traveled in the opposite direction as US President Joe Biden touched down in Ukraine to meet with his counterpart.
The optics of the two trips – taking place just days before the one-year anniversary of the brutal war on Friday – underscores the sharpening of geopolitical fault lines between the world’s two superpowers.
“We do not add fuel to the fire, and we’re against reaping benefits from this crisis,” Wang said in a thinly veiled dig at the US, echoing the propaganda messaging that regularly made China’s nightly prime-time news program – that the US is intentionally prolonging the war because its arms manufacturers are earning fat profits from weapon sales.
Putin, Wang Yi, and the Challenge of the Dialogue Between the EU and the USA: Addressing the Euro-Puzzle Problem with the Kremlin
He urged European officials to think about how they should contribute to peace in Europe.
“Who is calling for dialogue and peace? The person is giving out knives and encouraging confrontation. The international community can see clearly,” the spokesperson said.
Beijing avoided taking actions which could lead to secondary sanctions in order to protect the economy from its costly zero- Covid policy.
Though Beijing claimed impartiality in the conflict and no advance knowledge of Russia’s intent, it has refused to condemn Moscow and parroted Kremlin lines blaming NATO for provoking the conflict.
“If the case is that China can talk to Putin and try and mediation some of the troubles with Russia, at least some leaders in the region might listen to that idea,” he said.
President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia met with Wang Yi, China’s top foreign policy official, at the Kremlin on Wednesday, working to keep China in Russia’s corner amid a flurry of diplomacy across Europe by Beijing.
Mr. Putin pointed out that China-Russia trade volume could reach $200billion this year, compared with $185 billion last year.
“Everything is moving forward, developing, we are reaching new frontiers,” Mr. Putin said. We are talking about economic issues.
Not one to shy away from questions, nor to call out allies, he nevertheless tread carefully when talking about China.
Victoria Nuland, the State Department under Secretary of Political Affairs, said that she was awaiting to see what the Chinese had put on the table.
Beijing as a Responsible Negotiator for the Security and Security of Europe: China’s Position Paper at the Security Conference in Germany
Russia can use a ceasefire to further reinforce their position in Ukranian, so they can restart attacks on Ukrainian territory when they wish, at a time of their choosing”
Wang Yi, a top diplomat from China, discussed the position paper at the security conference in Germany last week in an attempt to cast Beijing as a responsible negotiator for peace in Europe.
No one benefits from conflict and war. All parties must stay rational and exercise restraint, avoid fanning the flames and aggravating tensions, and prevent the crisis from deteriorating further or even spiraling out of control,” the paper said.
The sanctions imposed on Russia by the US and other Western countries appear to be criticized. “Unilateral sanctions and maximum pressure cannot solve the issue; they only create new problems,” it said. “Relevant countries should stop abusing unilateral sanctions and ‘long-arm jurisdiction’ against other countries, so as to do their share in deescalating the Ukraine crisis.”
But the Chinese position paper also took several digs at the West for its approach to the war. It says unilateral sanctions only create more problems, and it called for the abandonment of a so-called “cold war mentality”.
“The security of a region should not be achieved by strengthening or expanding military blocs. It said that the legitimate security interests and concerns of all nations must be taken seriously and addressed properly, in line with a view shared by Moscow.
The paper was swiftly criticized by American officials, with US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan saying the war “could end tomorrow if Russia stopped attacking Ukraine and withdrew its forces.”
In Beijing, the ambassador of the European Union to China, Jorge Toledo, told reporters at a briefing that China’s position paper was not a peace proposal, adding that the EU is “studying the paper closely,” according to Reuters.
Zhanna Leshchynska, the Chargé d’Affaires to China told a news conference in Beijing that China should do everything in its power to stop the fighting in the country and urge Russia to leave.
Beijing-Russia relations after the Ukrainian crisis: a 12-point point position paper on the prospects for a peaceful resolution of the crisis, and a brief interview with Vladimir Putin
“This requires us to identify changes more voluntarily and respond to the changes more actively to further strengthen our comprehensive strategic partnership,” Wang said.
“Dialogue and negotiation are the only viable solution to the Ukraine crisis,” the 12-point position paper stated. “All efforts conducive to the peaceful settlement of the crisis must be encouraged and supported.”
Wang told Putin that the China-Russia relationship stood the test of the world’s drastic changes and became mature and tenacious.
“There isn’t much leverage involved. The document lays out broad, general principles, but no real reason why you might want to cease and desist, right? There’s no big appeal that you’re getting something. “If you don’t comply, it’s not a big cost,” said Ian, an associate professor at the National University of Singapore.
If the support of Ukraine’s allies were maintained, Zelensky said he was confident the Russian invasion would be defeated within a year.
If you go to Moscow, you’ll have a chance to sit down with President Putin and get a view of the war that he started, and the fact he could possibly finish it today. You ought to pick up the phone at the very least, and talk to President Zelensky and get the Ukrainian perspective here,” he said.
Mr. Zelensky first ignored the question of Beijing possibly providing Moscow with lethal weapons. When it was raised a second time, he said he wanted to ensure China did not arm Russia.
Mr Zelensky told the reporter that the question he had translated wasn’t about geography or geopolitics but was more about basic principles.
Russian Prime Minister Zelensky has a conflict with Israel. Israel and Ukraine are strong allies, but what can they tell us about the most difficult moments of the war?
Is China willing to accept that innocents shouldn’t be killed? That a nuclear power plant should not be occupied? Is it true that respect for the nation’s sovereignty means an invaders should leave?
He spoke in English to stress his openness to direct talks with China. “We have so many common issues, we have to speak between us with no one else.”
Iran is already giving attack drones to Russia and the West warned Moscow that it was also trying to acquire missiles. It was in this context that Mr. Zelensky was asked about Israel. Israel and Ukraine share a common enemy, he was asked, so why are they not stronger allies?
He understood Israel’s long history with Russia but wanted it to take a stronger stance against it since the start of the war.
There were hard questions about possible internal disputes in his government. A journalist from the Asian country of Azerbaijan wanted a picture with the Ukrainian leader for his son. (Mr. Zelensky obliged.)
The Ukrainian leader saw atrocities committed by the Russian soldiers for the first time and it was the most difficult moment of the war for him. It was terrible, he said.
Over more than two and half hours, questions about how and when Ukraine could win the war, were the most frequent — even if that answer would only be determined on the battlefield.
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/02/24/world/russia-ukraine-zelensky-news/new-york-times-reporters-reflect-on-the-moments-from-the-war-that-are-seared-in-their-minds
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko meets Xi Jinping in a strategic partnership with greater economic entropy than the United States
Mr. Zelensky dismissed the idea of negotiations with Moscow, saying that at this moment they would make no sense. Russia should stop the destruction and killing before talks can happen, he said.
Belarus’ President Alexander Lukashenko is scheduled to hold talks with Chinese officials in Beijing from Tuesday to Thursday at the invitation of Chinese leader Xi Jinping, China’s Foreign Ministry announced Sunday.
His trip comes after the two leaders agreed to upgrade their countries’ ties to an “all-weather comprehensive strategic partnership” during a September meeting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Uzbekistan, which Putin also attended.
Lukashenko wants to bolster economic ties with China because of the damaged ties with the West and the interest indiversifying the economy of Russia.
The US and its European allies imposed sanctions on the small nation after Lukashenko allowed Russian troops to invade Ukrainian territory.
A decade after the creation of the Belt and Road initiative, trade between the two countries more than tripled, reaching $5 billion last year.
China would oppose external interference in the affairs of Belarus and defend its borders, according to a commitment made by the Chinese Foreign Minister in a call with his Belarusian counterpart on Friday.
A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said on Monday that Lukashenko’s visit would be an opportunity to forge further cooperation between the two countries.
According to Chinese state media, Lukashenko was welcomed with a 21-gun salute in Tiananmen Square, where he reviewed honor guard troops with Xi, who later declared the China-Belarus friendship “unbreakable.”
The United States has been dismissive of China’s policy paper, although the leaders of Ukraine and France responded more positively and said they wanted to discuss it with Xi.
Ukrainian protests in Kiev: the new strategic arms reduction treaty and its implications for the future of the world’s most enlarged nuclear arsenals
Lukashenko has been president of the former Soviet republic since 1994, and won a sixth term in 2020 in a election widely viewed as fraudulent. The result of the election and Lukashenko’s retention of power triggered months of street protests which the regime met with brutality.
One commander claimed that the Ukrainian forces are mostly holding their positions, but at a high price.
On the ground, on the ground. Ukrainian officials said there were Russian attacks on the central Poltava region and in the eastern Luhansk region. The General Staff said several civilians were wounded in Russian rocket attacks in the northern region of Kharkiv. There was a lot of shelling along the frontline that runs north-south.
Russian deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabko told Russian state media that the United States was given an official note from Russia on Tuesday suspending its participation in the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty. According to RIA, the note stated that Russia will obey the treaty’s central provisions. The treaty that regulates the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals was jeopardized when Putin signed a law suspending Russia’s participation. The US is still in compliance with the treaty, but that could change depending on how Russia chooses to proceed, according to Ned Price.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-03-1-23/h_d4c447144619de3dfc7e5d0963315bd8
The Sino-Russian Asymmetry in World War II: Beijing, Putin, and the Crimes of the Invasion of Cambodia During the July 21 Reionization
There were no Serbian nationals among the group’s fighters in the area after the last one left, according to the head of the group. The comments come after Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić accused Wagner of trying to recruit Serbs to fight in Ukraine.
But in many Western capitals the optics of the visit will look very different – two autocrats who have long described themselves as firm friends shaking hands and banqueting while a conflagration in Europe rages.
And it comes just days after China scored a major diplomatic victory by brokering a surprise rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, helping the two archrivals restore diplomatic ties.
Hours after the announcement of China’s trip on Friday, the International Criminal Court issued an Arrest warrant for Putin, accused of war crimes over the deportation of Ukrainian children.
The top leader of China is about to eat with a war criminal who has been accused of killing tens of thousands of people around the world in his brutal invasion of Cambodia.
At a time when the military is running out of supplies and the economy is hurting under Western sanctions, the US and Europe have shown their support for the increasingly isolated Putin.
Beijing’s lopsided position is also apparent in its diplomatic engagements with Moscow and Ukraine – an asymmetry further highlighted by Xi’s visit to Russia.
In a signed article published in Russian state media Monday, Xi framed his upcoming visit as “a journey of friendship, cooperation and peace,” vowing to open “a new chapter” of bilateral relations.
The People’s Daily, the Chinese Communist Party’s official mouthpiece, published a letter the same day from Putin filled with praise for “Comrade Xi” and his view that Western powers will one day come for China.
The timing of the meeting is no coincidence as it will allow the Chinese leader to take advantage of Beijing’s recent diplomatic triumph in the Middle East to shape the war in Ukraine, he said.
The war is going to be a lot taller. Hart said, ” the key question is whether or not Xi tries to use his leverage to shape Russia’s behavior in the war going forward.”
Beijing has been offering Moscow much-needed economic and diplomatic assistance during the invasion despite its claims of neutrality.
The Russian defense military said that Russia, China and Iran had completed three-way naval drills in the Arabian Sea, a message of defiance to the Western alliance.
Although the plan was welcomed in Moscow and Kyiv, it was widely criticized for lacking substance and failing to recognize Russia’s violation of Ukraine sovereignty.
The framework offered by Beijing would be a one-sided reflection of the Russian perspective, according to John Kirby.
Moscow and Kyiv are not ready to make the concessions that are needed to bring the war to an end, that is something Beijing cannot fundamentally change.
Beijing is not the real problem solver in the High-Stakes Warfare: China’s comments on a visit to Moscow
The Biden administration said that it is closely following the visit of the Chinese President to Moscow and is worried about any calls for a ceasefire at this time.
He said that the US would reject any calls for a ceasefire from the high-stakes meeting and that it would not be in China’s best interest to provide arms to Ukrainians.
These two countries have not had a lot of trust with one another, but they are both trying to push back on the West.
“It was a convenient excuse for him to go in advance of Xi’s visit to show that he’s still the commander-in-chief, that he’s still in charge, and that his military still has occupied territory inside Ukraine. He said there was no doubt he could see how badly the military was doing where fighting was happening.
China’s leader Xi Jinping lands in Moscow on Monday to show support for Russian leader Vladimir Putin and probe possible steps toward peace in Ukraine.
“He can cast his visit to Moscow in the context of some grand international diplomacy, [yet] he doesn’t actually have to achieve much to accomplish this goal,” said Paul Haenle, a China expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a former director on the National Security Council under presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama.
Rana Mitter, a professor of Chinese history and politics at the University of Oxford, says China may hope the Moscow trip will help persuade some in Europe “to take a more America-skeptic position on questions of security and economic cooperation.”
“The mood has been set. The framework has been set. It is thought that China may be the peacemaker that goes where other countries can’t. But the actual solution still looks in some ways much, much more vague, much more fluid,” said Mitter.
The Chinese are not really aiming to be “the real problem solver here,” according to Yun Sun, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center in Washington, D.C.
Haenle, of the Carnegie Endowment, says during the Six Party Talks on North Korea’s nuclear program, in which he took part, Beijing excelled at bringing negotiators to the table. He said that Chinese officials never pressed any of the parties to move the ball.
He said that they were trying to find a way to solve the North Korean issue while the Chinese were looking for a process to manage the issue.
Haenle: “I’m afraid we won’t see them play a role in the end of the Ukraine conflict,” he added
“Whether they’ll play an active role in ending the Ukraine conflict, I think, is probably something that we will not see here in the near term,” Haenle said.
