The GOP has a new direction according to Haley
Noem, Cheney, Gabbard, Harris, and the Biden administration: a century after the first woman left the White House
Listings of prospective running mates often begin with people who have fallen short in running for president. That would be expected in 2024, as well, but in addition to a Haley or a Noem, Republicans could look to other woman governors, senators or prominent members of Congress — not to mention those with national reputations for past political exploits.
The next GOP nominating process is just one year away and she is just one of many well-known female officials who will have an effect on it.
Last month Noem said she is “not convinced that I need to run for president” — but she has kept the door open, and taken a succession of hardline, well-publicized stands on national issues such as abortion and immigration. Haley’s announcement may increase the pressure on Noem to decide, or announce.
Former Rep. Liz Cheney of Wyoming, once a name in the conversation for speaker of the House or the national ticket, fell from grace when she defied her Republican colleagues and co-chaired the House Select Committee on the January 6th Attack on the Capitol. Cheney was the leader of the panel that condemned Trump and she made it clear that she would do everything in her power to keep him from returning to office.
Some saw this as a way to challenge the former president in twenty four years’ time. Cheney’s future prospects were all but extinguished in the party she had long served when she lost her primary in August.
There are women who have conservative credentials who have shown interest in the nation’s highest office. A witness at the hearing on how the Biden administration was “weaponizing” federal agencies against citizens was Tulsi Gabbard, and she received a lot of attention.
Gabbard is a former major in the National Guard who fought in Iraq, served four terms as a member of Congress from Hawaii and ran for president as a Democrat in 2020.
The first woman president would achieve that office after being vice president, said many political observers. There is a possibility that that will happen at any time.
Like Hillary Clinton’s climb to the presidential nomination in 2016, Harris’ ascent to her current position represents a long step toward making women’s full political equality a reality in both parties.
For a century after the first woman declared herself a protest candidate for the White House in 1872 (before women’s right to vote was added to the Constitution in 1920), when women ran for the White House it was more to make a point than to win an office. The first woman to receive votes in primaries and at the national convention was Margaret Chase Smith, a senator from Maine, in 1964.
But in recent decades, women have been running not just to make a showing but to get on the ticket. Surely Elizabeth Dole, a senator from North Carolina, thought that was possible when she ran in the 1999-2000 cycle. Carly Fiorina, a California business executive, ran for president in 2016 but late in the primaries agreed to be Texas Sen. Ted Cruz’s prospective running mate instead.
But they could not alter the underlying dynamics or give what they lack in the presidential nominees. Supporters who thought these gender breakthroughs might galvanize women voters across party lines were disappointed.
A key complicating factor for women contemplating 2024 is the role of Trump. Haley is the first official challenger, but no one is expecting her to be the last. His failure to “clear the field” as a two-time nominee and former president has been widely noted.
Strengths: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is the name on the tips of Republicans’ tongues. He has been described as “Trump without the baggage” or “Trump with a brain.” He attended Yale University and Harvard Law School. At only 44 years old, he’s more than a generation younger than the former president. He is a well-known leader for his defiance on COVID-19 regulations, immigration and education. Several state and national polls over the past several months have shown him leading Trump, and while he has not declared his candidacy yet, people in his inner circle may believe now is the time.
In the early states, he has been showing up, but not well, in the polls. The true believers of Trump see him as disloyal yet they would rather the party not move on.
Would opposing him in the primaries automatically kill any chance of being his running mate? Taking on Biden in the early Democratic debates did not kill Harris’ chances. On the other hand, Harris did drop out before the primaries actually began and endorsed Biden early in March.
Where is the awkwardness in a candidacy for the role of the Arkansas governor, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, in the Biden State of the Union?
There is an awkwardness in all this posturing, some of which may have been at work when Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders gave the official Republican response to Biden’s State of the Union on Feb. 7. That speaking slot has often been seen as an audition for statewide politicians with national ambitions. It was used by the Senator to deliver a strong message of condemnation against the Biden administration and the Democrats in general.
She also included considerable personal information and referred to her role as the White House press secretary going to Iraq to visit troops with the president and first lady — all without ever without mentioning the name of the president she served. Conservative and Trump supporters criticized her for this.
Sanders has not broken with Trump. But she may be seeking a safe distance not unlike that sought by her father, Mike Huckabee, who once also served as Arkansas’ governor. Huckabee ran for president in 2008 and again in 2016, and while he has supported Trump he did not take a job in the Trump administration, pursuing his TBN talk show and speaking engagements.
Many recognizable Republican women might find themselves divided between thanking Trump for past help and wanting to be part of a new generation of Republican leaders.
Some of them may not have other options, such as Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, who is associated with Trump. But someone such as Elise Stefanik, the New York congresswoman who replaced Cheney as the House GOP’s third-ranking leader, might have maneuvering room in either direction.
There also exists the possibility that a resurgent Trump might look beyond current officeholders for an outsider with no second thoughts as his running mate, someone with mediagenic appeal who is willing to embrace his “stolen election” obsession about 2020 with fervor to match his own.
Kari Lake, a former local TV anchor in Phoenix, has shown that kind of devotion to her insistence she was elected governor of Arizona in 2022 — a race she lost. Lake will be in Iowa this weekend, where Republicans will start their first caucus a year from now.
If it weren’t for the odd voting system Alaskans adopted in the year before she was defeated, she would be their congressman right now.
Gray Not so long ago, the Republican National Committee was predicting continued electoral doom unless the party expanded beyond its mostly white base. So Marco Rubio threw himself into the failed Gang of Eight immigration bill; Paul Ryan went on a listening tour of poor urban communities; and Haley had the Confederate flag removed from the State Capitol grounds. For a time, Trump seemed to upend any hope that these savvy rising stars had of one day reaching the White House. Haley’s candidacy will test that assumption, and that’s why she matters. Did Trump stamp out the ambitions of her generation for good, putting an end to the dream of a friendlier, more moderate Republican Party? Or did he merely put those ambitions on hold?
Stephens If the subtext of a DeSantis candidacy is that he is Trump shorn of the former president’s personal flaws, the subtext of Haley’s is that she is the Republican Party shorn of the former president. A woman, a minority, an immigrant background, a self-made person: Without having to say a word, she embodies everything Trump’s vision of America isn’t. She would be less vulnerable to attacks of Republican bigotry by the Democrats.
The immigrant story is a good one, her decision to get rid of the Confederate flag showed common decency. On the other hand, there was an awful lot of complicity and silence when she served under Trump.
The Role of the Right Under President Biden and the Early GOP: Tim Scott, Chris Sununu, and a Key Early-Primordial State
If President Biden chooses to run for reelection he’s likely to face a crowded field of Republicans, who will have a number of options to choose from.
He has a certain charm but he lacks discipline. Some have cast doubt on his retail-politicking ability. While his conservative record may play well with many on the right, it’s the very thing that may be his biggest weakness in a general election. The ultra-right-wing House Freedom Caucus was critical of then-House Speaker Paul Ryan’s budget as it did not make enough cuts. Part of what he supported was a budget that slashed benefits to Social Security and Medicare. He will have to contend with anti-abortion activists who believe the abortion ban didn’t go far enough. He’s not experienced as a national candidate. He made Biden his foe, but how he will handle the Republican rivals isn’t clear at this point.
Weaknesses: He’s not well known, is very young for a presidential candidate, doesn’t start with a solid base of support and will likely have trouble breaking through as a serious major candidate.
Weaknesses: Haley, who is not well known nationally, decided to put Social Security and Medicaid on the chopping block shortly after announcing her bid.
Under Trump, Mike had high-profile jobs including secretary of state and CIA director that increased his international credibility. This will give him a good starting point for a presidential campaign, not just being a congressman from Kansas. He’s serious and conservative, and his jobs under Trump give him some ability to criticize both Trump and Biden on foreign affairs. He’s close to Charles Koch.
Strengths: New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu will try to carve out a moderate, anti-Trump lane. He has tried to say that his party needs to move on from Trump and that DeSantis’ style of governance is too authoritarian. He’s popular in his home state, and his home state just so happens to be a key early-primary state.
Tim Scott is black and from South Carolina, which is a key early GOP primary state. While he’s conservative, his diverse background and upbringing bring a different perspective to the white-dominated Republican Party. The only Black Republican senator can have a commanding presence and has a more optimistic outlook than Trump or DeSantis. He started to reach out to a national donor base by accumulating millions of dollars.
Weaknesses: It’s not clear the model he won on can be replicated nationally and in a presidential-election year. He was able to do what he did in Biden’s first year as president, and traditionally, the candidate of the opposite party as the president has an advantage in Virginia gubernatorial races. He’s not well known in the US and his business and financial dealings would be subject to intense scrutiny.
Weaknesses: Coming from such a small state is a difficult jumping-off point for a presidential candidate. South Dakota has a small number of people living in it. It wouldn’t even be in the country’s top 40 counties if we looked at it another way. Noem is a new faces on a national stage, with a crowded field of people from larger states, she is the most likely choice for vice president.
Weaknesses: Hutchinson’s opposition to Trump will make it difficult to win over a significant portion of Trump’s base. He is on the older side for a presidential candidate, which is a disadvantage for someone who is not well known nationally.
Strengths: Liz Cheney, Wyoming’s former congresswoman and the daughter of a former vice president, is well known and prosecutes the case against Trump well, making her potentially formidable on a debate stage.
The former national security adviser of Donald Trump had a prominent career serving four Republican presidents. He’s also likely fairly well known to Fox News viewers, as he regularly appeared on the network. His expertise in foreign policy makes him eager to take on Trump on the subject, because he was so displeased with him after leaving Trump’s administration.
