Russia is bruised as winter approaches, I wonder if Ukraine can land another blow

The decision to annex Ukraine is important: a dangerous tab for Vladimir Putin, the US national security adviser and the case against a nuclear attack on Ukraine

Putin announced the annexation of Ukrainian territories on Friday and declared they will become part of Russia forever. Despite the fanfare in Moscow he is rushing to claim a victory and cement slender gains, as well as run a dangerous political tab.

“It is you who will decide whether we are all going to exist. Whether Ukraine is going to exist. Every day. Every hour. The decision will be made by the Ukrainian soldiers, he said.

Hill, who has worked on national security for three US Presidents, thinks Putin may be trying to end his career. “He feels a sense of acute urgency that he was losing momentum, and he’s now trying to exit the war in the same way that he entered it. With him being the person in charge and him framing the whole terms of any kind of negotiation. “

Many Russians were untouched by the war, which began on Sept. 21 with Mr. Putin ordering the military to be sent to bolster his battered forces. Many men have been drafted who are ineligible due to factors like age or disability.

According to official data from the EU, Georgia and Kazakhstan, around 220,000 Russians have fled across their borders since the “partial mobilization” was announced. The EU said its numbers – nearly 66,000 – represented a more than 30% increase from the previous week.

CNN can’t verify the Russian numbers, but the backlash and perception that Putin is no longer reading Russia’s mood are what leads to the 40 kilometer traffic tailbacks at the border with Georgia.

Kortunov says he doesn’t know what goes on in the Kremlin but that he understands the public mood over the huge costs and loss of life in the war. Many people would want to know why we were in this mess. Why, you know, we lost so many people.”

He used the same playbook annexing Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 and now, like then, threatens potential nuclear strikes should Ukraine, backed by its Western allies, try to take the annexed territories back.

Western leaders are in a battle of brinksmanship with Putin. Last Sunday US national security adviser Jake Sullivan told NBC’s “Meet the Press” Washington would respond decisively if Russia deployed nuclear weapons against Ukraine and has made clear to Moscow the “catastrophic consequences” it would face.

Explosive earthquakes in the Danes, Germans and Norway: Putin’s role in the war on Ukraine has been criticized by the West

Both Danish and Swedish seismologists recorded explosive shockwaves from close to the seabed: the first, at around 2 a.m. local time, hitting 2.3 magnitude, then again, at around 7 p.m., registering 2.1.

After patches of sea were discovered, the Danes, Germans and Norway sent warships to protect the area.

Russia denies responsibility and says it has launched its own investigation. The former CIA chief said that Russia has the ability to cause this type of damage due to the fact that it has an underwater capabilities and that there are explosives that can be laid by the Russians.

Russian naval vessels were seen by European security officials in the area in the days prior, Western intelligence sources have said. NATO’s North Atlantic Council has described the damage as a “deliberate, reckless and irresponsible act of sabotage.”

Nord Stream 2 was never operational, and Nord Stream 1 had been throttled back by Putin as Europe raced to replenish gas reserves ahead of winter, while dialling back demands for Russian supplies and searching for replacement providers.

If this is indeed Putin’s plan, it would be his biggest strategic mistake yet. There is little Western appetite to see him stay in power – US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said as much in the summer – and even less to let down Ukraine after all its suffering.

No one knows what’s really going on in Putin’s mind. Kortunov thinks that Putin will not be willing to compromise far beyond his own terms, despite the fact that the West has offered peaceier terms. We do not know what these degrees are likely to be.

Putin is expected to pitch France and Germany first to tell them that they need to end the war, protect their territories and put pressure on the Ukrainians to do so.

Putin knows he is in a tight spot, but doesn’t seem to be aware of how small a space he has, and that is worrying, since he may be able to make good on his nuclear threats.

IZIUM, Ukraine — Russian forces in Ukraine were on the run Monday across a broad swath of the front line, as the Ukrainian military pressed its blitz offensive in the east and made gains in the south, belying President Vladimir V. Putin’s claims to have absorbed into Russia territories that his armies are steadily losing.

Two days after President Vladimir V. Putin held a grandiose ceremony to commemorate the incorporation of four Ukrainian territories into Russia, the debacle in the city — Lyman, a strategic railway hub in the eastern region of Donbas — ratcheted up pressure on a Russian leadership already facing withering criticism at home for its handling of the war and its conscription of up to 300,000 men into military service.

In an article published Sunday, the Komsomolskaya Pravda, a prominent Russian newspaper, said that in the last few days of their occupation, Russian forces in Lyman had to deal with desertion, poor planning and delayed arrival of reserves.

The Kremlin reflected the disarray of its forces on the ground, where territory was rapidly changing hands, acknowledging that it did not yet know what new borders Russia would claim in southern Ukraine. Dmitri S. Pesko, Putin’s spokesman, said on Monday that the president would continue to consult with the population of the regions on the borders.

Yanukovsky’s attack on the Ukrainian capital, Zaporizhzhia, echoed the early days of the invasion of Ukraine

A global affairs analyst is named Michael Bociurkiw. He is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and had an office for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. He is a regular contributor to CNN Opinion. The opinions expressed in this commentary are his own. CNN has more opinion.

But there was a noticeable feeling of anxiety in Kyiv on Friday, as many of its residents worried Russia might launch new attacks on the day of the anniversary.

While the bombardment was wide, it also echoed the early days of Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine, which caused a slow and painful grind in the eastern region of the country.

The strikes occurred as people headed to work and while kids were being dropped off at schools. A friend in Ukraine told me that she just got out of the bridge before it was hit.

As of midday local time, the area around my office in Odesa remained eerily quiet in between air raid sirens, with reports that three missiles and five kamikaze drones were shot down. Normally at this time of the day, nearby restaurants would be heaving with customers and chatter of plans for upcoming weddings and parties.

Monday’s attacks also came just a few hours after Zaporizhzhia, a southeastern city close to the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, was hit by multiple strikes on apartment buildings, mostly while people slept. At least 17 people were killed and several dozens injured.

In a video filmed outside his office Monday, a defiant President Volodymyr Zelensky said it appeared many of the 100 or so missile strikes across Ukraine were aimed at the country’s energy infrastructure. At least 11 important infrastructure facilities in eight regions and the capital have been damaged; some provinces are without power, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said.

In scenes reminiscent of the early days of the war when Russian forces neared the capital, some Kyiv media outlets temporarily moved their operations to underground bomb shelters. A group of people took cover in a metro station while a small group performed patriotic Ukrainian songs.

Indeed, millions of people in cities across Ukraine will be spending most of the day in bomb shelters, at the urging of officials, while businesses have been asked to shift work online as much as possible.

Just as many regions of Ukraine were starting to roar back to life, and with countless asylum seekers returning home, the attacks risk causing another blow to business confidence.

The attacks may have achieved one goal; they signaled strength to Putin’s critics, who are growing impatient with Russia’s lack of success in the air.

It seems like a penchant of dictators to hardwire newly claimed territory with expensive infrastructure projects. Putin personally opened the longest bridge in Europe by driving a truck across it. The world’s longest sea crossing bridge was built in the year 1969 to connect the former Portuguese and British territories of Macau and Hong Kong. The $20 billion, 34-mile road bridge opened after about two years of delays.

The hilarious meme that Putin threw down: how the Kremlin threatened to throw more lives on the West, or what Putin would have done if he had stopped lying

The hilarious meme lit up social media channels like a Christmas tree. Many shared their sense of jubilation via text messages.

Sitting still was never an option for Putin, who was consumed by pride and self-interest. He responded in the only way he knows how, by unleashing more death and destruction, with the force that probably comes natural to a former KGB operative.

It was also an act of selfish desperation: facing increasing criticism at home, including on state-controlled television, has placed Putin on unusually thin ice.

The new commander of Russia’s invasion was named, faced with growing setbacks. There is no sign that the Ukrainian counter-offensives will end by the end of the year, even if Gen. Sergey Surovikin could lead his forces back onto the front foot.

The fact that Washington is using telephone diplomacy to try to persuade China and India not to use more deadly weapons shows how important this is.

The most important thing for the West at this time is to show unity and resolve because a man who probes for weakness tends to exploit divisions. Western governments need to realize that rhetoric and sanctions have little impact on Putin. If they have to send military experts closer to the battlefield to help integrate high tech weapons, then they need to still continue to provide urgent training.

The country requires high tech defense systems to protect vital energy infrastructures. With the winter around the corner, it’s important to protect heating systems.

The Ukrainian War of Independence, and the Kremlin’s Unprecedented Progress – Observations at the Chatham House

Turkey and the Gulf states which receive lots of Russian tourists need to be pressured into joining the West in isolating Russia with trade and travel restrictions.

Not for the first time, the war is about to go into a new phase. “This is now the third, fourth, possibly fifth different war that we’ve been observing,” said Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow at Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia Programme.

Despite the fact that the war has favored Ukraine, American and Ukrainian officials say the fighting is likely to continue for months more. There are a number of variables that could affect the trajectory of the conflict, such as the amount of fighting that takes place in December, the extent to which President Putin will escalate the conflict, and whether Europe’s unity can be maintained this winter.

The stakes of the war have been raised once more as winter approaches. “There’s no doubt Russia would like to keep it up,” Giles said. The Ukrainian successes of recent weeks have sent a direct message to the Kremlin. Giles said that they were able to do things that took them by surprise.

Monday’s attacks, and further strikes throughout the week, were evidence of Russian President Vladimir Putin lashing out after a series of setbacks in the war that have put him under pressure domestically.

Ukrainian Counter-offensives at the Winter Soldiers’ Corner: Why Do Ukrainians and Western Countries Need to Collapse before Christmas?

In the south Kherson region, Ukrainian troops hoisted a country’s flag over a building last month. Ukrainian officials say that they’ve liberated hundreds of settlements since their counter-offensive began.

The Ukrainian military intelligence agency said that Kherson was under the control of the country and that units of the armed forces were entering the city.

The counter-offensives have put the war back in focus and disproved a suggestion that the Ukrainian army did not have the power to take the fight to Russia.

The Russians are playing for the whistle and hoping to avoid a collapse in their frontline before the winter sets in.

“If they can get to Christmas with the frontline looking roughly as it is, that’s a huge success for the Russians given how botched this has been since February.”

Ukrainian troops are focused primarily on pushing Russian forces eastwards, having crossed the Oskil River in late September, with Moscow likely preparing to defend the cities of Starobilsk and Svatove in the Luhansk region, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Landing a major blow in Donbas would send another powerful signal, and Ukraine will be eager to improve on its gains before temperatures plummet on the battlefield, and the full impact of rising energy prices is felt around Europe.

Giles said that there are so many reasons why things can be done quickly in Ukraine. The winter energy crisis in Europe, and energy infrastructure and power being destroyed in Ukraine is always going to be a test of resilience for Ukrainians and the Western backers of the country.

Several European countries, which relied heavily on Russian energy, are staring down a crisis due to lack of progress on the battlefield, which could endanger public support.

Ukraine’s national electricity company, Ukrenergo, says it has stabilized the power supply to Kyiv and central regions of Ukraine after much of the country’s electricity supply was disrupted by Russian missile attacks on Monday and Tuesday. The Ukrainian Prime Minister has warned that there is a lot of work to be done to fix damaged equipment, and asked Ukrainians to cut energy usage during peak hours.

Western analysts believe that Moscow may not have the capacity to keep up with Russia’s aerial bombardments, even though estimating the military reserves of either army is a murky endeavor.

Jeremy Fleming, UK’s spy chief, said in a speech that Russian commanders on the ground knew their supplies were running out.

Russia may be able to disrupt the counter-offensives of the Ukrainians with its limited supply of precision weapons.

Justin Bronk, a military expert with the London-based Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), agreed with that assessment, telling CNN that, “Ukrainian interception success rates against Russian cruise missiles have risen significantly since the start of the invasion in February.”

The Russian government does not have enough precision weapons to sustain a high-tempo missile assault like that, which is why the occasional bombardment of missiles is reserved for shows of extreme outrage.

The effect of an intervention in terms of pure manpower would be limited; Russia has a small army, which would not make much of a difference. But it would threaten another assault on Ukraine’s northern flank below the Belarusian border.

The reopening of the northern front would be a new challenge for the country. He said it would give Russia a new route into the Kharkiv oblast if Putin prioritized the effort to grab that territory.

By flipping the narrative of the conflict over the past two months, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has achieved one of his own key objectives: showing Ukraine’s Western allies that their military aid can help Kyiv win the war.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Tuesday that more systems are needed for Ukrainian defense if they are to stop missile attacks.

Many incoming missiles were shot down this week by the Ukrainian air defense systems, which were provided by NATO Allies.

Ukraine “badly needed” modern systems such as the IRIS-T that arrived this week from Germany and the NASAMS expected from the United States , Bronk said.

Giles’s convoy in Kiev as a medic warns against Russian attacks in the upcoming Ukrainian military campaign: The attack on the Kharkiv building

“There are many things Russia can do to make the war personal, not just for people of Ukraine but around Europe, to try to force pressure on governments to remove their support for Ukraine,” Giles said.

They join an army already degraded in quality and capability. As much of the prewar military force of Russia in Ukraine was wounded or killed and its best equipment was destroyed or captured, the composition of the force has changed over the course of the war. The Russian military leadership is not likely to know what will happen when faced with cold, exhausting combat conditions or rumors of Ukrainian assaults. Recent experience suggests these troops might abandon their positions and equipment in panic, as demoralized forces did in the Kharkiv region in September.

In that case, Mr. Putin could lash out more broadly against Ukraine. If missile supplies hold out, and if Russia can target the Ukrainian leadership directly, the attacks of the past week could be expanded across the country.

There is a loud boom of outgoing missiles from the critical eastern Ukrainian town, as Ukrainian soldiers try to wrest back positions from Russian forces.

Our guide is Ukrainian military medic, who goes by her nom-de-guerre “Katrusya.” In tinted sunglasses and fatigues, she slings our convoy into the centre of the city at breakneck speed.

We were taken to see a building that was just been hit. Our car didn’t stop as another shell hit nearby. We scrambled for cover as more artillery rained and whizzed down nearby for around 20 minutes.

Bakhmut, Ukraine: the battleground of a Kremlin approved private military group in the recent months of separatist repression

A handful of residents are still on on the streets of Bakhmut. There are no windows in the buildings, the streets are filled with craters, and industrial garbage bins have splintered into small pools of trash.

Those who remain seem to live in a parallel universe. They’re out on their bikes, running errands and elderly women drag their shopping trolleys behind them, though which shops are open seems a mystery.

Zelensky said that the motivation he has to keep the city is different to Russia’s. We understand what Russia wants to achieve. Russia needs at least some victory – a small victory – even by ruining everything in Bakhmut, just killing every civilian there,” Zelensky said.

The intense fighting has killed a lot of people here. I am unable to give you the number, but it’s a lot, there are a lot of injured from both sides.

The struggle for Bakhmut has grown more ferocious in recent days. Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelensky has called the fighting in the city “the most difficult”.

Though Bakhmut does not hold significant strategic value in itself, its road connections to Kramatorsk and Sloviansk – two densely populated, industrial urban hubs to the northwest – mean those cities be next in Russia’s crosshairs if they are able to take control.

The scenes in Bakhmut though are different to those across the rest of the country, where Ukraine has largely been able to repel and even gain territory in recent weeks as Russian forces retreated at the end of September.

Russian forces have made small, steady gains thanks to the help of a group that is considered to be a Kremlin approved private military company.

Katrusya says she’s come up against Wagner fighters, and despite their international notoriety, they seem more like a hodgepodge of soldiers for hire, she says.

They are a lot of fun. Most of the professional fighters accidentally fighting in this war for money or the ability to get out of jail were trained to do that, but a few of them are very well-trained.

In September, a video was released that appeared to show PriGozhin recruiting people from Russian jails for the group, offering a promise of clemency in return for serving in the war in Ukraine.

She admits that the price for Ukraine will be very high. We will lose our best, the most motivated and trained but we will still win and the land is ours. We will win absolutely.”

The Ukrainian Army can hold on to the line if NATO doesn’t intervene, but a full victory is almost impossible. If the Ukrainians can advance any better against Russians even at a small cost of 50 to 70 men, they would be in a better position to do so in the whole area between Russia and the east. What has been a meat grinder in one direction is likely to be a meat grinder in the other.

BLAHODATNE, Ukraine — Ukraine’s troops entered the key city of Kherson on Friday, its military said, as jubilant residents waved Ukrainian flags after a major Russian retreat.

The Ukrainian government shared videos on social media showing people watching the arrival of a contingent of Ukrainian troops after Russia said it had withdrawn its forces from the Dnipro River.

The Ukrainian government would gain an argument that it should press on with its military operations even though it has Russian forces on the run and not return to the bargaining table, if it regained control of Kherson.

Even as its soldiers fled, the Kremlin said that it still considered Kherson — which President Vladimir V. Putin illegally annexed in September — to be a part of Russia.

As he spoke, the soldiers continued to move through towns and villages, and were warmly greeted by residents who had been through nine months of occupation.

A Ukrainian drone survey of the Bakhmut ruins during the December 2010 Russian-American War II. No Russian troops or equipment in the area of Kherson

Oleh Voitsehovsky, the commander of a Ukrainian drone reconnaissance unit, said he had seen no Russian troops or equipment in his zone along the front less than four miles north of Kherson city.

“The Russians left all the villages,” he said. We looked at lots of villages with our drones, but did not see a single car. We don’t see how they are leaving. They retreat quietly, at night.”

Residents of Kherson reached by telephone on Friday morning said the final hours of the Russian occupation were chaotic and confusing.

In a series of text messages, Serhiy said that conditions in the city had deteriorated overnight, and that his last name should not be published for security reasons.

The fire department was not able to respond to the blaze at night in the center. There was no phone signal, no electricity, no heating, and no water.

Russian soldiers may have been left behind to engage the Ukrainians in street battles or sabotage operations, Ukrainian officials have warned.

The report claimed that Russian forces were setting up defensive positions on the east bank of the Dnipro and that Ukrainian troops were getting ready to cross the river.

The head of Russia’s Wagner private military company has attempted to explain his group’s failure to capture the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, which has for months been the scene of intense fighting.

During a New Year’s visit with fighters on the front line, Yevgeny Prigozhin said that there was “a fortress in every house” in Bakhmut, and that “only clowns that sit around and try to predict these things.”

“They say, ‘the combined forces have advanced into Artyomovsk and broken the defense,’” he said, referring to Bakhmut by its Soviet name. The name was changed back to Bakhmut in 2016.

What Does It Mean To Break Through the Defense? A Question from Artyomovsk: “What is it going to cost us if we break the borders of Poland?”

“Then they say: ‘What does it mean to “break through the defense?”’ ‘Breaking through the defense’ means breaking through the defense of one house this morning, then you have to go break the defense of the next house, right?” he said.

“Therefore the question is: “Who is going to take Artyomovsk? Which combined forces? It’ll be the Wagner combined forces,” he said. “And who else? Who else is there besides the one that is Wagner PMC?

Responding to a question from CNN’s Christiane Amanpour at a press conference in the capital city, Zelensky said: “Victory will be inevitable. I’m certain there will be a victory.

The former Russian President and chair of the Security Council in Russia said on Friday that they wanted to push the borders of threats to the country as far as possible even if these are the borders of Poland.

Zelensky and the fallen heroes of Kyiv: a great honor for the Ukrainian people, as well as the United Nations Security Council

Zelensky used the first anniversary of the war to urge international assistance for his country. He visited wounded service members before holding a press conference.

The leader of the Ukranian military spoke to them earlier on Friday. He told them that they were who would decide the future of the country.

Ukraine’s international allies showed their solidarity on Friday, with landmarks around the world lit up in colors of the Ukrainian flag, and new weapons and funding announcements.

A $2 billion security package was announced by the U.S., which includes new funding for contracts, such as the mine-clearing equipment and secure communications equipment.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken called on the international community not to let Putin’s crimes “become our new normal,” at the United Nations Security Council.

Germany said it would send a further four Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, increasing its original commitment from 14 tanks to 18. Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson also pledged to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.

During a meeting with G7 leaders and Zelensky, the Japanese Prime Minister said he would introduce new sanctions against Russia.

While air-raid sirens are a daily fixture in Kyiv, there hasn’t been a major attack on the city in a few weeks, which means that whenever the alarms are activated, people are left gauging the level of risk.

Two former students of her school lost their lives fighting in the war and she went to lay flowers in honor of them at the Monastery.

In the cold morning in the Ukrainian capital, Pahitsky decided to pay her respects to the fallen heroes as student president of her school.

They have photographs on the main street. It’s a great honor. They died as heroes. So it’s very important for us. And it would have been for them,” she said.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/24/europe/kyiv-war-anniversary-intl-cmd/index.html

First visit of the Indian Embassy to the White House: The Indian Ambassador to Ukraine, Alexander Lukashenko, and U.S. President Putin

Olexander was an IT worker before the war but now is a member of the Navy of the armed forces of Ukraine.

“I would prefer to describe what I don’t feel now, I don’t feel a fear, but [I] feel confidence in my abilities,” he told CNN. “One year ago … I felt fear, I was stressed, psychologically it unsettled me. But currently there is no fear at all.”

The greatest blunder President Vladimir Putin may have made so far in Ukraine is giving the West the impression that Russia could lose the war. The early Russian strike on Kyiv stumbled and failed. The Russian behemoth seemed not nearly as formidable as it had been made out to be. The war took on a new look of face-off between Russians and Ukrainians.

Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, visits the White House Friday for talks with President Biden, following her trip to Canada.

The diplomats from the U.S. and Russian government met for the first time in years, walking together with other foreign ministers of the Group of 20 nations in India.

In Beijing, Alexander Lukashenko met with China’s president and they declared their nations’ friendship to be unbreakable. Lukashenko, a close Kremlin ally, endorsed China’s proposal to end the war in Ukraine.

Bringing the center right party to the front line: NPR’s coverage of the recent elections in the Republic of Moldavian Republic (Russia)

After the election, the center right party of the Prime Minister will remain in office, and Kallas will be in it for the long haul.

Here, you can find past recaps. For context and more in-depth stories, you can find more of NPR’s coverage here. You can listen and subscribe to the NPR State ofUkraine radio show for the latest news.

We understand that there is a chance for them to go further after Bakhmut. He told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer in an interview that they could go to Kramatorsk and then go to other towns in the eastern part of Ukranian. Our guys are there for that.

Zelensky claimed that the military brass were unified in keeping the city out of Russian hands, after weeks of attacks left it on the verge of falling to Moscow.

He said if Russia could put a flag on top of Bakhmut it would be able to mobilize their society and create a powerful army.

A growing risk that Ukrainian troops could get cut off and a rising number of casualties have prompted some commanders and lower level officers to question the worth of holding Bakhmut.

Over 4,000 people remain in the city, with 38 of them children, according to the country’s Vice Prime Minister. “We have special evacuation teams, who help, and armored vehicles. But people often stay in basements, leaving no information about their whereabouts,” she said in a televised address. “This makes evacuation much more difficult.”

NATO intelligence meanwhile estimates that for every Ukrainian soldier killed defending Bakhmut, Russian forces have lost at least five, a military official with the alliance told CNN on Monday. The official cautioned the 5-to-1 ratio was an informed estimate based on intelligence.

The adviser to the Ukrainian Presidency, Mykhailo Podolyak, told CNN on Monday that buying time to replenish forces was one goal of the defense of Bakhmut.

Zelensky persuaded the US, the UK, Germany and a group of other European nations to increase their military aid to Ukraine, which is now racing to integrate Western weapons systems into its operations.

Zelensky said that the video showed the Russians’ attitude towards POWs. They don’t have any laws of war or international law or any conventions. The people don’t respect anything. They don’t fight like soldiers,” he said.

According to the clip, the man identified by the army on Tuesday is named Tymofii Mykolayovych Shadura and he says “Slava Ukraini” before being executed.

“For us, it’s war for our freedom, for democracy, for our values. For them, it is terrorism. And they post this video…. This is the face of this war. This is the face of the Russian Federation,” he added.