Russia’s peace talks with the Ukranian are unlikely in the near future

Vladimir Putin during the Ukrainian War: State of the Art and a Demonstration of the Will to Save the United States from a Cold War

Clinton said no one is asking for a blank check. “I believe that the Ukrainians have proven that they are a really good investment for the United States. They don’t want us to fight their war. They’re fighting it themselves. They want us to use the means to actually win, not only to defend themselves.

The speech connected the struggle of the Ukrainian people to our own revolution, so we can celebrate Christmas in their homes, and to make us aware of the families in their countries that are on the front lines, since we want to be warm in our homes.

She hoped that they would send more than one. She noted there’s “been some reluctance in the past” by the US and NATO to provide advanced equipment, but added “We’ve seen with our own eyes how effective Ukrainian military is.”

Clinton met Putin when she was secretary of state and said he was not likely to get any better as the war went on.

“I think around now, what [Putin] is considering is how to throw more bodies, and that’s what they will be – bodies of Russian conscripts – into the fight in Ukraine,” Clinton said.

And the US is in agreement. White House spokesman John Kirby told reporters last week that Putin has “shown absolutely zero indication that he’s willing to negotiate” an end to the war, according to Reuters. He said that everything he is doing on the ground and the air speaks to a man who wants to visit violence upon the Ukrainian people.

His comment came in the midst of Russia bombarding Ukrainian energy grid with rockets and missiles, and after ten months of Putin trying to diminish the sovereignty of the country.

The reduction of military aid to Kyiv could be a result of a hypothetical deal. If Putin came back from a costly war with no significant territorial gains, his reputation at home would be severely damaged.

On Sunday, when he seemed to be indicating willingness to negotiations, the Russian leader refused to mention that Ukraine was a relevant party and continued to state that Moscow is defending itself with a special military operation.

As has often been the case throughout the conflict, the vaguely conciliatory tone from Putin was quickly contradicted by a heavy-handed message from one of his key officials.

Alexander Rodriguez, an economic adviser to President Zelensky, told CNN Tuesday that Putin was trying to buy time in the conflict.

“The blitzkrieg has gone terribly wrong for them and they know that, so they need more time to regroup and rebuild their troops,” Rodnyansky said, adding that it was also Kremlin’s strategy to dissuade the world from sending more military aid to Ukraine. We have to not fall into that trap.

Through the first ten months of war, NATO has stayed largely united in supporting Ukraine’s resistance, with Western nations dispatching billions of dollars worth of weapons and other aid to Kyiv.

Putting a dent in that support remains a key aim for Putin, whose position would be strengthened if foreign leaders leaned on Zelensky to consider a deal with Russia.

The ground war in eastern and southern Ukraine has been defined by a series of counter-attacks that have pushed back Russia’s forces and given Western optimism that it can win.

Predictions for the New Year and beyond: the role of the United Nations, the Security Council and the United States as a mediator of a war in the Cold War

But Zelensky and his officials have said throughout that they will continue to sound out the possibility of negotiations, without raising any hopes that they would achieve a truce.

“Every war ends in a diplomatic way,” Kuleba told the AP on Monday. “Every war ends as a result of the actions taken on the battlefield and at the negotiating table.”

The Foreign Minister said the UN would be the most natural broker for those talks. The best place to hold the summit will be the UN, because this is not about making a favor to a certain country. “This is really about bringing everyone on board.”

The steps include a path to nuclear safety, food security, and a final peace treaty with Moscow. He also urged G20 leaders to use all their power to “make Russia abandon nuclear threats” and implement a price cap on energy imported from Moscow.

A decisive swing on the battlefield in the New Year could force a change in the calculus, but both sides are dug into what will many observers believe could become a long and grinding conflict.

Zelensky was in the US for the first time in ten months to show his intent to keep his allies focused on the conflict.

Zelensky said during the press conference that as president he would not compromise on sovereignty, freedom and territorial integrity in order to get a just peace.

“It can succeed in the battlefield with our help, and the help of our European allies and others, so that if and when President Zelensky is ready to talk to the Russians, he will be able to succeed as well, because he will have won on the battlefield.”

At the time, Putin insisted his forces were embarking on a “special military operation” — a term suggesting a limited campaign that would be over in a matter of weeks.

War against Ukraine has left Russia isolated and struggling with more turbulent air: Repressions, prosecutions, censorship, and the public’s reputation

The invasion has grown into the biggest land war in Europe since World War II, forcing millions of Ukrainians from their homes, decimating the Ukrainian economy and killing thousands of civilians.

Yet the war has also fundamentally upended Russian life — rupturing a post-Soviet period in which the country pursued, if not always democratic reforms, then at least financial integration and dialogue with the West.

Draconian laws passed since February have outlawed criticism of the military or leadership. A leading independent monitoring group says that over 20,000 people have been arrested for demonstrating against the war.

Lengthy prison sentences have been meted out to high profile opposition voices on charges of “discrediting” the Russian army by questioning its conduct or strategy.

The repressions extend elsewhere: organizations and individuals are added weekly to a growing list of “foreign agents” and “non-desirable” organizations intended to damage their reputation among the Russian public.

The human rights organization was forced to stop its activities because of alleged violations of the foreign agents law.

The war in Ukraine has led to vastly expanded Russia’s already restrictive anti-gay laws, according to the state.

For now, repressions remain targeted. Some of the laws are not enforced. If the moment comes, most believe that the measures are meant to crush wider dissent.

Leading independent media outlets and a handful of vibrant, online investigative startups were forced to shut down or relocate abroad when confronted with new “fake news” laws that criminalized contradicting the official government line.

internet users can be restricted as well. In March, American social media giants were banned. Since the beginning of the conflict, more than 100,000 websites have been blocked by the internet regulator.

Russia still has access to Telegram and other technical workarounds. State media propaganda is blanketing the air favored by older Russians.

Source: https://www.npr.org/2022/12/31/1145981036/war-against-ukraine-has-left-russia-isolated-and-struggling-with-more-tumult-ahe

Russia’s Cold War and Its Implications for the Russian Economy, Foreign Trade and Foreign Trade Abundances in the 21st Century

Thousands of perceived government opponents — many of them political activists, civil society workers and journalists — left in the war’s early days amid concerns of persecution.

Yet Putin’s order to mobilize 300,000 additional troops in September prompted the largest outflow: Hundreds of thousands of Russian men fled to border states including Kazakhstan, Mongolia and Georgia in an attempt to avoid the draft.

It was a good way to rid Russia of traitors and spies, argued Putin. Russian officials have suggested stripping those who left the country of their passports. Russia can thrive without many of its best and brightest.

Meanwhile, some countries that have absorbed the Russian exodus predict their economies will grow, even as the swelling presence of Russians remains a sensitive issue to former Soviet republics in particular.

Helped by Russian price controls, the ruble regained value. New names and Russian ownership ultimately led to the rejuvenation of McDonald’s and other brands. By year’s end, the government reported the economy had declined by 2.5%, far less than most economists predicted.

The West is trying to restrict the amount countries pay for Russian oil and limit seaborne oil imports. There are signs the efforts are already cutting into profits.

President Putin wants Europe to pull back on its support for Ukraine in order to make up for rising energy prices in the EU, a move that will lead to sanctions. He announced a five-month ban on oil exports to countries that abide by the price cap, a move likely to make the pain more acute in Europe.

The economic damage has already put an end to Putin’s reputation for providing stability which was a key basis for his support among Russians who remember the chaotic years that followed the collapse of the USSR.

There is no noticeable change in the government’s tone when it comes to Russia’s military campaign. Russia’s Defense ministry gives daily briefings about its successes on the ground. Putin assures everyone that everything is going according to plan.

The length of the war suggests Russia underestimated the willingness of the Ukrainians to resist.

Russian troops were unable to take over the cities of Kiev and Kharkiv. Kherson was abandoned during a Ukrainian counteroffensive in November. Since retreating, the Russian forces have been shelling the city.

Moscow’s problems have been underscored by the annexation of four territories of Ukraine, which it has not been able to establish full control over.

The true number of Russian losses – officially at just under 6,000 men – remains a highly taboo subject at home. Those figures are much higher according to Western estimates.

A series of explosions, including along a key bridge connecting Russia to Crimea, which it annexed in 2014, have put into question Russia’s ability to defend its own strategic infrastructure.

Indeed, Russia’s invasion has — thus far — backfired in its primary aims: NATO looks set to expand towards Russia’s borders, with the addition of long-neutral states Finland and Sweden.

It would not have been appropriate for the Allies of Central Asia to criticize the actions of Russia because of their concern for their own sovereignty. China and India have bought discounted Russian oil, but they have not supported Russia’s military campaign.

The State of the Nation Address is Unwelcome to Putin: On the epoch of war in the Balkans, in the West, in Ukraine

A state of the nation address, originally scheduled for April, was repeatedly delayed and won’t happen until next year. The yearly “direct line” in which Putin fields questions from ordinary Russians was canceled.

The annual December big press conference was tabled until 2023, so that the Russian leader could handle questions from the pro-Kremlin media.

The Kremlin has given no reason for the delays. After 10 months of war, the Russian leader has run out of good news to share.

The debate over Biden’s visit will be unwelcome to Putin, who will on Tuesday make a major speech to the Federal Assembly in which he will discuss the ongoing invasion.

Biden got security guarantees in advance and went to Kyiv, according to the statement. “And of course, there were mutual incantations about the victory that would come with new weapons and a courageous people. The West is very familiar with the city of Kyiv, delivering its weapons and money frequently. The military-industrial complex of NATO countries have been able to earn money and steal weapons for terrorists around the world.

Russian army veteran and former Federal Security Service (FSB) officer Igor Girkin meanwhile suggested that Biden could have visited the frontlines in eastern Ukraine and escaped unharmed.

“Wouldn’t be surprised if the grandfather (he is not good for anything but simple provocations anyway) is brought to Bakhmut as well… AND NOTHING WILL HAPPEN TO HIM,” Girkin said.

Girkin is among a number of hardline military bloggers – some of whom have hundreds of thousands of followers and provide analysis of the conflict for large swaths of the Russian population – who have repeatedly criticized what they consider a “soft” approach on the battlefield by Putin’s generals.

Medvedev, who currently serves as deputy head of Russia’s Security Council, is known for making belligerent pronouncements in an apparent bid to shore up his nationalist credentials.

The guests of foreign countries that are invited to the event will not be invited, the Kremlin’s spokesman told reporters Monday.

A year after launching the largest land war in Europe since World War II with a failed assault on centralUkraine, Putin is again expected to embark on a renewed offensive.

China’s Strategic Strategy for Cooperating with the United States and Russia: An Observation from the Putin-Kuleba Meeting

Mr. Putin told Mr. Wang that he was looking forward to welcoming “my friend” Xi Jinping, the Chinese leader, to Russia soon, but indicated that the meeting had yet to be confirmed. Mr. Wang responded that deepening the relationship with Russia remained a priority for China.

US officials warned that China could support Russia with weapons. There was no mention of weapons or the situation in Ukraine in the televised part of the meeting.

Mr. Putin is looking to shore up alliances as the Ukraine war approaches its first anniversary and the early stages of Russia’s new offensive to swallow up territory appear to be sputtering. As Mr. Putin and Mr. Wang met, President Biden was gathering with NATO members from the alliance’s eastern flank in Warsaw in a display of unity.

Throughout his visit to Europe and Russia, Mr. Wang’s public comments have reflected China’s fraught efforts to maintain Beijing’s close strategic alignment with Moscow.

Mr. Putin said that his country’s trade with China could reach $200 billion by the year’s end, compared with $188 billion last year.

Mr. Putin said everything is moving forward and we are reaching new frontiers. “And above all, we are talking, of course, about economic issues.”

“On the Ukraine issue, China has always stood on the side of peace and dialogue, and has always insisted on pressing for peace and negotiation,” Mr. Wang said in a meeting with Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, on Saturday, when they were both in Munich for an annual security conference, according to China’s official summary of the meeting.

India’s Growth as the Fifth-Billion-Sized Economy in the Next-Generation G-20 Summit: Predictions for the First Two-Day Meeting

Climate change, food security and debt relief are priorities for the Global South and India wants to steer the agenda for the G-20 summit.

Three of India’s neighbors — Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Bangladesh — are seeking urgent loans from the International Monetary Fund, as developing countries in particular struggle with rising global fuel and food prices.

The US, Russia, and China will all be at the two-day meeting in New Delhi.

Last July, Lavrov walked out of a previous G-20 foreign ministers’ meeting in Indonesia, after Western delegates denounced the Ukraine war. Last April, at another G-20 meeting, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and representatives from other Western nations walked out when Russia spoke.

Last year, India’s economy became the fifth-largest in the world, surpassing that of its former colonial occupier, Britain. India is expected to surpass China as the world’s most populous country in the near future. (Some say it’s happened already.) Its growth this year is expected to be the strongest among the world’s big economies.

G-20 Forum in Mumbai: Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on the World’s Most Admired Economic Think Tank, with a View from the Indian Economy

Last year Indonesia held the presidency of the G-20, and Brazil will do the same next year. Modi’s government wants to credit it to a domestic audience as a personal achievement for him as he seeks a second term next year.

Across India, billboards with Modi’s face and the G-20 logo have gone up. In recent weeks, highway flyovers in Mumbai and New Delhi have been festooned with flower boxes. Lampposts got a fresh coat of paint.

One reason India wants to keep its agenda away from Ukraine is that it has maintained relations with Russia despite the war. Modi has called for a cease-fire but has so far refused to condemn Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion. Russia sells oil and weapons to India.

But at a similar G-20 finance ministers’ meeting last week, Yellen accused Russian officials in attendance of being “complicit” in atrocities in Ukraine and in the resulting damage to the global economy.

That meeting, held Feb. 22-25 near the southern Indian city of Bengaluru, ended without a final joint communique being issued. And analysts have cast doubt on whether this week’s foreign ministers’ meeting might end any differently.

Ever since Russia’s invasion in Ukraine, it has become rare for major international conferences to invite Russian officials. So, when an Indian think tank welcomed Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to speak, it made for some awkward exchanges.

A group of academics, business executives and diplomats from the Group of 20 economies gathered in India this week for a conference to talk about their views on the world.

Lavrov’s criticism of the western world had a “double standard” in his critique of the war on Iraq, Afghanistan and the United States

In one exchange, Lavrov received applause for accusing the western world of having a double standard because of its criticism of the Russia’s invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan. In another, the reaction was less positive.

It influenced the policy of Russia. “We wouldn’t rely on any partners in the west if you described the change in a blunt way”, he said.