The United States and South Korea staged a joint air exercise after the North’s missile launch
The North Korean Launch of High-Redshift Multi-Rattle Ballistic Missiles and the Response of the US and Japan to the South Korean Sea
SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea added to its recent barrage of weapons demonstrations by launching four ballistic missiles into the sea on Saturday, as the United States sent two supersonic bombers streaking over South Korea in a dueling display of military might that underscored rising tensions in the region.
Brian Nelson, Under Secretary for the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence said that North Korea’s nuclear weapons are threatening international security and regional stability. The United States is committed to targeting the regimes global networks that make money from destabilizing activities.
South Korean officials recently said that North Korea is ready to conduct a nuclear test. There’s a chance that the nuclear test is related to an effort to build plutonium for use on short-range missiles in South Korea.
A recent missile test by North Korea, which flew over neighboring Japan with no warning, has caused a spike in tensions on the Korean Peninsula.
On Saturday, in its 37th day of missile tests in 2022, North Korea fired at least three short-range ballistic missiles from a site south of Pyongyang, according to South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff.
On Tuesday, the US and Japan also conducted a joint response to the North Korean launch, with US Marine Corps and Japan Air Self-Defense Force fighter jets flying over the Sea of Japan, also known as the East Sea.
The state-run media Korean Central News Agency (KCNA)’s report on the launch said the Korean People’s Army (KPA) mobilized two 600 mm radial guns and fired multiple projectiles. South Korea considers multi-rocket launchers larger than 600 mm as ballistic missiles.
The steep-angle launch was supposed to avoid other countries. The flight details reported by North Korea, which roughly matched the launch information previously assessed by its neighbors, show the weapon is theoretically capable of reaching the mainland U.S. if fired at a standard trajectory.
“North Korea is going to keep conducting missile tests until the current round of modernization is done. Lewis said that a nuclear test explosion is not far away.
There is no plan in place to bring North Korea to the negotiating table or make progress on denuclearization at this time.
The USA, South Korea and Japan are responding to the missile launches with military exercises and have sparked alarm in the region.
More than 70 missiles were fired by North Korea last year, and three of them were detected by South Korea. The testing spree suggests that the country is likely going to advance its nuclear program. The Security Council could not be harsher in punishing U.N. sanctions because China and Russia blocked them.
First, it could simply be the right time after the events of the last few years, with Kim declaring victory against Covid in August, and a new US administration in place that has focused on shows of unity with South Korea.
AnkitPanda, an expert with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that Kim likely found that the technical reliability of the ICBM force was sufficiently tested and evaluated to allow for regular operational exercises.
Jeffrey Lewis, a weapons expert and professor at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, said it’s also normal for North Korea to pause testing during the stormy summer and resume once weather improved in the fall.
The North’s statement, released on the 77th birthday of its ruling Workers’ Party, is seen as an attempt to burnish Kim’s image as a strong leader at home amid pandemic-related hardships as he’s defiantly pushing to enlarge his weapons arsenal to wrest greater concessions from its rivals in future negotiations.
They want the world to know that they exist and their engineers are working around the clock to develop both nuclear weapons and delivery systems.
Carl Schuster was a former director of operations at the Joint Intelligence Center in Hawaii. Kim “launches missiles to generate attention towards himself, but also to create pressure for Japan and the United States to engage him,” he said.
Schuster said that the missile tests started in January, which was when they began to report on what Russian President Putin was up to. “Kim Jong Un is doing what he thinks he can get away with – he’s not expecting any kind of strong US reaction.”
Lankov said that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may have also boosted Kim’s confidence because “it demonstrated that if you have nuclear weapons, you can have almost impunity. And if you don’t have nuclear weapons, you’re in trouble.”
Despite the US and its allies’ quick military response this past week, experts say there’s little they can do to stop or prepare for North Korea’s weapons tests.
“The Americans sent the Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier. The South Korean missile that crashed on Wednesday was not working well, Lankov said, referring to the missiles being launched there. How are the American aircraft carriers affected around Korea? That is pretty much nothing.
Kim, the North, and the Communists: The Cold War after a Missile Test by the United States is Going Through a Democratic Reionization
The North lacks the widespread use of technology that facilitates economic and societal advances, as well as the opportunity to gather intelligence for the US and its allies.
Chris Johnstone, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that since the leader of North Korea is solely responsible for what the country does, there is a hard intelligence problem.
Russian and Chinese vetoes were the first time since 2006 that either country had prevented a sanction vote against the North for its weapons testing.
The law showed that North Korea hopes to strengthen ties with China and Russia, according to a professor at the University of North Korean Studies.
The Army Tactical Missile System was fired by the United States during a joint training with South Korea on October 5.
Since the last report of a launch in March, the KCNA, the North Korean state-run media, has had no mention of missile launches.
However, Schuster and Lankov both said that given the friendly relationship between North Korea and China, Kim might wait until after China holds its high-profile Communist Party Congress later this month – if it happens at all.
The most important event on the Chinese political calendar this year is a meeting of the party elite, which will likely see Chinese leader Xi Jinping re-elected to a third term in power.
Kim “depends too much on Chinese aid to keep his country afloat,” meaning he can’t afford to “do anything to detract from the Party Congress,” said Schuster. “So although China can’t dictate to him what he must do … he will not cause them problems.”
Kim said on Thursday that his nuclear forces were prepared for war, a day after the latest missile test by the isolated country.
According to the KCNA report, Kim said the weapon is capable of being loaded with nuclear warheads and that it can hit all of South Korea with precision.
According to the KNA report, the recent drills were designed to send a strong military reaction warning to the enemies and to verify and improve the country’s fighting capabilities.
The launches of the missiles by North Korea were the first of their kind, according to the private Sejong Institute in South Korea.
The North has tested missiles from a submarine before, but this was the first public launch of a missile under an inland lake.
Kim Dong-yub, a professor at Seoul’s University of North Korean Studies, said North Korea likely aims to diversify launch sites to make it difficult for its enemies to detect its missile liftoffs in advance and conduct preemptive strikes.
North Korean authorities confirmed the reliability of the explosion of the missile’s warhead when the weapon was flying over the sea target, according to the KCNA.
North Korea released a slew of photos on the launches. One of them showed Kim and his wife Ri Sol Ju, both wearing ochre field jackets, frowning while covering their ears. Some observers say the image indicated Ri’s elevated political standing because it was likely the first time for her to observe a weapons launch with her husband.
In Friday’s statement attributed to an unidentified spokesperson, North Korea’s Foreign Ministry said the United States and South Korea had created a seriously “unstable atmosphere” in the region with their military exercises. It claimed that the United States used sanctions and military threats to convince North Korea to disarm.
Besides providing a “patriotic headline” for domestic consumption on the 77th anniversary of its ruling party, “it is making explicit the nuclear threat behind its recent missile launches,” Easley said.
The launches are framed as tests for the missiles, but rather than the units that launch them, I find noteworthy. That suggests these systems are deployed,” Lewis said on Twitter.
Joint Task Force 70/Carrier Strike Group 5 in South Korea: KCNA Report on the US Navy and High-Energy Tests of Cruise-Meason Systems
Among the key military installations in South Korea is the US Army’s Camp Humphreys, the largest US military installation outside of the United States with a population of more than 36,000 US servicemembers, civilian workers, contractors and family members.
Kim called for an “exponential increase” of the country’s nuclear arsenal, which he wanted to mass produce for use against South Korea. He needs to develop a quick nuclear counterstrike weapon that he can use to hit the mainland U.S. It was said that the North’s first military satellite will be launched “at the earliest date possible”.
Kim further emphasized that Pyongyang will thoroughly monitor enemies’ military movements and “strongly take all military countermeasures” if needed, KCNA stated.
A US Navy aircraft carrier strike group was involved in trilateral exercises with South Korean and Japanese units that ended Saturday, according to a statement from the US Navy.
“Our commitment to regional security and the defense of our allies and partners is demonstrated by our flexibility and adaptability to move this strike group to where it is needed,” said Rear Adm. Michael Donnelly, commander of Task Force 70/Carrier Strike Group 5.
A report from the Joint Staff of Japan said the security environment around Japan was getting more severe and that drills with the US Navy were increasing the ability to respond to threats.
The KCNA report claimed the cruise missiles tested Wednesday flew oval and figure-8 patterns for almost three hours above the sea before hitting their target.
The United States can’t trust its nuclear capabilities, nor does it believe its strengths are exaggerated – a warning to the international community
The details of the reports can’t be trusted according to the associate professor at the Ewha Womans University. The Kim regime is often transparent about weapons development goals, but it also exaggerates strength and capabilities.
Kim said that even if current strengths are exaggerated, North Korean missile tests show a progressing program.
A missile is launched using a rockets and travels outside of Earth’s atmosphere to space where it descends into the ground with no help from gravity.
The nuclear warhead needed for a missile designed to hit the mainland United States is smaller than for a cruise missile.
A large number of warplanes flew in and out of the country after North Korea fired at least 30 missiles this week, including an intercontinental missile on Thursday that caused an alert in northern Japan.
He said that policymakers should not allow domestic politics, the war in Ukraine and other challenges to stop them from increasing international coordination on military deterrence and economic sanctions.
There is precedent for the United States to finesse the situation. Washington didn’t brandish their nuclear weapons as long as Israel, India and Pakistan had them.
Although Israel has never acknowledged its nuclear power, it is still the greatest secret in the world. It is not open to flaunting its capability which made it much easier for Arab neighbors like Egypt to not pursue their own nuclear programs. The United States turned a blind eye to India until it conducted a round of tests in 1998. Washington pragmatically set aside its concerns over those tests to enable cooperation in other areas.
South Korea’s response to the protests against the North Korea deployment: It isn’t a threat to the Sino-American conflict
Had the Trump administration taken this approach three years ago, we might be in a very different place today. No, North Korea would not be disarmed by now. But we could be exploring other steps to reduce tension, might have secured commitments of good behavior from Pyongyang and perhaps even some gesture toward disarmament in exchange for sanctions relief and economic assistance. This isn’t ideal, but vastly preferable to having weapons in North Korea.
Animosities between the rival Koreas have further deepened since early last week, when South Korea accused North Korea of flying drones across their heavily fortified border for the first time in five years and responded by sending its own drones toward the North.
South Korea also on Friday scrambled about 80 military aircraft after tracking about 180 flights by North Korean warplanes inside North Korean territory. The South’s military said that North Korean warplanes were detected in various areas inland and along the country’s eastern and western coast, but did not come very close to the Koreas’ border. It was not yet clear how many North Korean planes were involved in the flight trails that were spotted by the South Korean military.
The South Korean military confirmed to CNN that an artillery exercise had taken place 10 kilometers (6 miles) from the border but said it did not violate an agreement with the North regulating such exercises. Seoul claims instead that Pyongyang violated the agreement earlier Friday by firing 170 rounds of artillery into the sea off its west coast.
The ministry said the sanctions will have the effect of blocking illegal fund transactions and remind the domestic and international community of the risks.
When the Thaad system was installed, residents of this village got national attention as they protested against it. Villagers here — and many South Koreans elsewhere — were concerned that it could place South Korea on the front lines of a potential Sino-American conflict.
As Beijing and Washington clash over issues such as Taiwan, global supply chains and the South China Sea, anxieties have been on the rise. There are a lot of anti-American banners on one side of the road that goes from the village to the American military base. Yankees, go home! Thaad, go home!” They want it.
During a recent early-morning rally, Ms. Do and 20 other protesters sat on plastic chairs on a two-lane asphalt road, shouting: “We don’t need Thaad! We need peace! An hour later, police officers removed them — carrying them in their chairs — so the road could be cleared for trucks and water and fuel tanks going up the hill to the Thaad base.
U.S. and South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff Revisited in Light of the North Korean Missile Fall into the Sea of Japan
Washington has provided security for Seoul since the Korean War. But after South Korea established diplomatic ties with Beijing in 1992, China quickly replaced the United States as the country’s biggest trading partner, helping to fuel a thriving, export-driven economy. About 30 percent of South Korean exports go to China or Hong Kong — almost equaling the country’s trade with the United States, Japan and Europe combined.
The US military said it was aware of the North Korean launch, which “does not pose an immediate threat to US personnel or territory, or to our allies,” according to a statement from the US Indo-Pacific Command.
Later Sunday, the U.S. sent B-1B bombers streaking over the Korean Peninsula to train with South Korean and U.S. fighter jets, according to South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff. It said Sunday’s training reaffirmed Washington’s “iron-clad” security commitment to South Korea.
Speaking to reporters on Thursday, the head of the UN’s nuclear watchdog said “everybody is holding its breath about” a potential North Korean nuclear test, which could provide further “confirmation of a program which is moving full steam ahead in a way that is incredibly concerning.”
“We are following this very, very closely. We hope it doesn’t happen but indications unfortunately go in another direction,” said IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi.
Some residents went to South Korea and Japan because of the projectiles that triggered alert, and because they wanted to be near other people.
Japan’s Defense Ministry said officials were still analyzing the data but estimated both missiles were fired at around 7:00 a.m. local time on Monday and fell into the Sea of Japan “to the east of the Korean Peninsula, outside Japan’s exclusive economic zone,” its statement said.
“And the region where the North Korean missile fell,” he adds, “has many fishing boats catching squid,” suggesting that it could put South Koreans’ livelihoods at risk, and “pose existential threat to South Korea, if need be.”
The South Korean Joint Chief of Staff said the participation of the B-1Bs in the drill demonstrates the allies’ readiness to respond to North Korean provocations.
South Korea scrambled about 80 fighter jets after detecting a large number of North Korean warplanes during a four-hour period Friday, the country’s military said, in a further escalation of regional tensions.
North Korea has given up on its military power: a UN resolution of the Security Council report on missile launches, including a 600mm multiple-launch rocket system
“We’ve said before these kinds of activities are destabilizing to the region potentially. So we call on them to cease that type of activity and to begin to engage in serious dialogue,” Austin said.
The Security Council is expected to talk about the missile launches from North Korea on Friday. The US, UK, France, Albania, Ireland and Norway had all called for an open meeting.
In an interview on CNN on Wednesday, US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield condemned North Korea’s actions, saying Pyongyang had broken multiple Security Council resolutions.
Thomas-Greenfield said that the UN would put pressure on China and Russia to improve sanctions. She said that the sanctions would be on the President’s mind and declined to say if he would raise them with China’s president.
The displays of military power by the US are hated by North Korea. The North has continued to describe the B-1B as a “nuclear strategic bomber” although the plane was switched to conventional weaponry in the mid-1990s.
The allies decided to extend the training to Saturday in response to a number of North Korean missile launches, including an ICBM, which prompted the suspension of trains in northern Japan.
It followed that early Sunday with another test. North Korea said both Saturday’s and Sunday’s tests were of a 600mm multiple-launch rocket (MRL) system. Most multiple-rocket launch systems in service around the world are around 300mm in size.
The 600mm MRL was first introduced three years ago, and production has been increased since late October of 2022 for deployment, Kim said in his speech to the plenary session on Saturday, according to KCNA. He said that 30 more 600mm MRL will be sent to the military.
Pyongyang’s Security Forces and the Defense Acquisition Program Administration’s North-Kelunko System: Implications for the US and Korea
Its recent missile launches were not very impressive. A professor at Ewha University says that the volume of tests from various locations show that North Korea could launch different types of attack from a number of directions.
“Its recent missile launches were not technically impressive. At unusual times and from various locations, high volume of tests demonstrate that North Korea has the ability to launch different types of attack from many directions.
Over the course of the next decade, the Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA) will spend more than $2.7 billion to strengthen the mission capabilities and survivability of its fleet of F-15K fighters, jets that would play a key role in any strikes on North Korea.
The US extended deterrence force deployed to the Korean Peninsula immediately demonstrated the combined defense capability of the two countries, the statement said.
According to US Forces Korea, the new unit will coordinate space operations and services within the region.
Ankit Panda, a nuclear policy expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told CNN in mid-December that Pyongyang has emerged as a missile power.
The reference to a new ICBM appears to concern a solid-propellant system which could be tested soon. He said the launch of a satellite could happen in April, which coincides with a key state anniversary.
“Kim’s comments from the party meeting reads like an ambitious — but perhaps achievable — New Year’s resolution list,” said Soo Kim, a security analyst at the California-based RAND Corporation. “It’s ambitious in that Kim consciously chose to spell out what he hopes to accomplish as we head into 2023, but it also suggests a dose of confidence on Kim’s part.”
South Korea’s president told military officers that the security situation was still very grave in a video conference. “Our military must resolutely punish any provocation by the enemy with a firm determination that we dare to risk fighting a battle.”
“It was during his 2018 New Year’s speech that (Kim) first ordered the mass production of warheads and ballistic missiles, and he’s doubling down on that quantitative expansion goal in the coming year,” said Ankit Panda, an expert with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
The details were similar to North Korea’s Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile test flight in November, which experts said demonstrated potential to reach the U.S. mainland if fired on a normal trajectory.
No damage has been reported after the missile landed within Japan’s exclusive economic zone, about 125 miles west of Oshima island. Hokkaido’s main island is off the western coast of Oshima.
While the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command said the launch did not pose an immediate threat to U.S. personnel, territory, or its allies, the White House National Security Council said it needlessly raises tensions and risks destabilizing the security situation in the region.
Despite limited resources, a continued expansion of his country’s military capabilities has been underscored by the unprecedented number of missiles.
Chang Young-keun, a missile expert at Korea Aerospace University in South Korea, said that North Korea appeared to have launched an upgraded version of the Hwasong-15 ICBM. Chang said the information provided by North Korea showed the missile will likely have a longer potential range than the standard Hwasong-15.
South Korea and the U.S. will also hold a one-day tabletop exercise next week at the Pentagon to sharpen a response to a potential use of nuclear weapons by North Korea.
A new national security strategy has been adopted by Japan, that includes preemptive strikes and cruise missiles to counter growing threats from North Korea, China and Russia.
The launch of the Hwasong-15 ICBM was hastily organized without prior notice by Kim, according to the Korean Central News Agency.
The Hwasong-15 launch demonstrated the North’s “powerful physical nuclear deterrent” and its efforts to “turn its capacity of fatal nuclear counterattack on the hostile forces” into an extremely strong one that cannot be countered, KCNA said.
“I warn that we will watch every movement of the enemy and take corresponding and very powerful and overwhelming counteraction against its every move hostile to us,” she said.
South Korea’s nuclear capabilities after the launch of the Air Force Strategic Bomber on the Korean Peninsula – and their views on Japanese colonial-era mobilization
The foreign ministers of South Korea and Japan, meeting on the sidelines of a security conference in Germany on Saturday, agreed to boost a trilateral cooperation involving the United States and exchanged in-depth views on the issue of Japan’s colonial-era mobilization of forced Korean laborers — a key sticking point in efforts to improve their ties, according to Seoul’s Foreign Ministry.
South Korean and U.S. Air Force planes accompanied the deployment of a US Air Force B-1B strategic bomber on the Korean Peninsula.
Japan’s Defense Ministry recorded that the first missile was launched at around 6:59am local time and flew about 400 km (248 miles) at a maximum altitude of about 100 km (62 miles). The second missile was fired at a maximum altitude of around 50 km.
The coast guard of Japan advised vessels to keep an eye out for further information. The coast guard was also told to report fallen objects to the agency.
Kim Yo Jong, the sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and one of the country’s top officials, released a statement Monday around the time of the suspected missile launch.
Kim said in the statement, which was posted on KCNA, that North Korea has “satisfactory technology and capabilities” for missile reentry and now all that remains is “to focus on increasing the number of forces.”
Kim said that instead of worrying about other people’s technologies it would be better to think more about ways to defend yourself.
She also said that if North Korea deemed the presence of US forces in the region as a threat, they would take “corresponding measures,” and added, “the frequency of using the Pacific Ocean as our shooting range depends on the nature of the US military’s actions.”
Several recent public surveys “definitely showed that we should re-arm ourselves. In nuclear capability terms, (the surveys say) we should go farther,” Han told CNN anchor and business editor-at-large Richard Quest during a sit-down in Seoul.
One such poll, released last February, found that 71% of more than 1,300 respondents in the country were in favor of South Korea developing its own nuclear weapons – a once-unthinkable idea that has become increasingly mainstream in the past decade, with rising tensions in the Korean Peninsula and dwindling confidence in South Korea toward US protection.
“We have built up a quite adequate level of our deterrence capabilities in close cooperation with the United States,” he said, adding that the government had “put a lot of emphasis” on strengthening its deterrence since President Yoon Suk Yeol took power last year.
And despite Han voicing opposition to such a plan, he too emphasized South Korea’s preparedness in confronting its nuclear-armed neighbor – as well as its openness for further talks, under certain conditions.
Han said that China was no longer the country it used to be because of the economic reforms that took root in the past decades.
“China is a huge and important global player,” he said. I think many countries would like to see China become more compliant with global rules.
China’s military, aggressive foreign policy and several disputed territorial claims have not gone unnoticed in Korea, where attitudes towards Beijing are fast souring.
The agency that imposed sanctions on the Chilsong Trading Corporation and Korea Paekho Trading Corporation, for being agencies or controlled entities of the Government of North Korea, was the Treasury.
The Government of North Korea uses trading companies like Chilsong to earn foreign currency, collect intelligence, and provide cover status for intelligence operatives, making them subordinate to the Government.
“And so the result of these actions by North Korea is simply to even further solidify the work that we do together, the alliance that we share, and our commitment to the defense of our partners and allies,” Blinken said.
“The European Union previously designated Chilsong, Paekho, Pak, and Hwang for engaging in sanctions evasion and being responsible for supporting the DPRK’s unlawful nuclear and ballistic missile programs,” he said.
The Foreign Ministers of Japan, South Korea and Blinken all spoke out against that missile test on the day of it.