China is calling for a truce between Russia and Ukraine

Vladimir Lukashenko: Towards a joint force with Russia in Belarus after his invasion of February 1939–the resultant attack on Kyiv

Russia massed tens of thousands of troops in Belarus before its February invasion and used Belarusian territory as a staging ground for its initial, unsuccessful assault on Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital. Moscow still has hundreds of troops in Belarus, from which it launches missiles and bombing raids, but their number is now expected to increase sharply.

“This won’t be just a thousand troops,” Mr. Lukashenko told senior military and security officials in Minsk, the Belarusian capital, after a meeting over the weekend with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia in St. Petersburg.

In rambling remarks reported by the state news agency Belta, Mr. Lukashenko said that work had already started on the formation of what he called a “joint regional group of troops” to counter “possible aggression against our country” by NATO and Ukraine.

The Belarusian strongman, who has so far resisted pressure from Moscow to send in his own troops, accused Ukraine, which shares a long border with Belarus, of planning attacks from the south, without citing evidence.

The establishment of a joint force with Russia will reinforce the view in Ukraine that Belarus is clearly a “co-aggressor” and that Mr. Lukashenko has rejected.

During his visit to St. Petersburg, Belarusian state media reported that Mr. Lukashenko had “stressed the need to take measures in case of the deployment of nuclear weapons in Poland,” a remark that some analysts interpreted as preparing the ground for the possible deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus, something that he has long said would never happen.

Heavily reliant on Moscow for money, fuel and security assistance, Mr. Lukashenko needed it the most if he wanted to survive after 28 years in power.

Xi-Biden meets the US at the Group of 20 summit in Bali, Indonesia, on the sidelines of the Bali summit

Xi is an ideological hardliner who believes in China’s return to the center of the world stage and is skeptical – some would say hostile – toward America. Biden believes the rivalry between China and the US should be seen as a fight between autocracy and democracy.

On Monday, the two leaders are set to meet each other for another honest exchange in Bali, Indonesia, on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit. But the mood in the room is unlikely to be as balmy as the surrounding location.

The Democrats were projected to keep control of the Senate in the US midterm elections, with Vice President Biden arriving in Asia after a better than expected performance by his party. Biden said he was confident the results allowed him to go into Monday’s meeting with a stronger hand. “I know I’m coming in stronger,” he told reporters.

While Beijing has yet to confirm Xi’s side of the conversation, China’s consummation of a new friendship with Moscow just before the invasion of Ukraine caused alarm in the West. And as top US and Russian officials met in Turkey on Monday, partly about the nuclear issue, the signals coming out of the Xi-Biden talks could be an important indication of restraint from Beijing to Moscow and a diplomatic win for Washington.

But at the summit in Bali, Indonesia, it was clear that while both sides want to avoid a clash now, their goals – China wants to be the preeminent Asian and potentially global power, as does the US – remain fundamentally incompatible.

A senior White House official said Thursday Biden wants to use the talks to “build a floor” for the relationship – in other words, to prevent it from free falling into open conflict. The main objective of the sit-down is not about reaching agreements or deliverables – the two leaders will not release any joint statement afterward – but about gaining a better understanding of each other’s priorities and reducing misconceptions, according to the US official.

US national security adviser Jake Sullivan reinforced the message Saturday to reporters aboard Air Force One, noting the meeting is unlikely to result in any major breakthroughs or dramatic shifts in the relationship.

There’s low hope for a reset with Washington in Beijing. Shi Yinhong, an international relations professor at Renmin University, said it would be an “enormous over-expectation” to believe the meeting can lead to any lasting and significant improvement in bilateral ties.

“The Chinese believe the US goal is to keep China down so we can contain it. Scott Kennedy, senior adviser in Chinese business and economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington said the US believes that China is trying to push the US out of Asia and weaken the alliance system.

Each side blames the other entirely for the state of the relationship and each believes they are faring better than the other in the situation, said Kennedy, who has recently returned from a weeks-long visit to China – a rare opportunity in recent years due to China’s zero-Covid border restrictions.

The Chinese and Americans think they are winning, so they are willing to pay for it. And they think the other side is very unlikely to make any significant changes,” Kennedy said. The likelihood of significant adjustments is reduced by all of that.

But experts say the very fact that the two leaders are having a face-to-face conversation is itself a positive development. When tensions run high and suspicions run deep, it’s crucial to keep dialogue open.

Direct communication is more important than ever in the present, given the possibility of Xirule for life, a third term with a tighter grip on power than ever, and the fact that he can rule for the rest of his life. Sullivan said that there is no one else in their system who can communicate authoritatively other than China’s leader.

Biden said after the talks that he didn’t find Xi “more confrontational or more conciliatory. I found him to be straightforward and direct. … We were very assertive with one another in regards to the situations where we disagreed and unsure of each other’s position.

“I would love to be a fly on the wall to see that conversation because I don’t think that the US or China has been very precise about what its red lines are. Kennedy of CSIS thinks that neither side has been very transparent about what the positive rewards the other side would reap from staying within those red lines.

And perhaps no American President has angered Beijing over Taiwan in recent decades more than Biden, who has said – on four separate occasions – the US will defend the island in the event of a Chinese invasion. Each time, his aids have rushed to walk back his remarks and denied any changes in the US’ “One China” policy.

Even as it confronts Russia in Ukraine, the US is seeking to dampen its latest crisis with China – over what Washington says was a Chinese spy balloon that wafted over the continental US earlier this month. This week the US warned China against supplying Russia with arms that it could use in the war in Ukraine while Wang headed to Moscow, which came closer to a linkage.

China retaliated by launching large scale military exercises around Taiwan and by suspending dialogue with the US in a number of areas, from drug dealing to climate change.

A result of weeks of intensive discussions between the two sides, Taiwan is expected to top the agenda when the two leaders sit down in the same room. barbs have already been traded in a sign of how contentious the issue is.

Biden has said he would make no “fundamental concessions” to Xi, and Sullivan has announced plans to brief Taiwan about the talks with an aim to make Taipei feel “secure and comfortable” about US support.

Biden publicly told Xi that the US was ready to reengage in climate talks – at an opportune moment for the Egypt climate summit. After the talks, a White House readout said that the two leaders “agreed to empower key senior officials to maintain communication and deepen constructive efforts” on climate change, global macroeconomic stability including debt relief, health security and global food security.”

Experts in the US and China say some progress on greater communication and access between the two countries will already be considered a positive outcome – such as restoring suspended climate and military talks.

The summit in Indonesia yielded two important outcomes, according to the US: A joint position that Russia must not use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine and an expected resumption of talks on climate between American and Chinese negotiators, a boost for the COP 27 global climate conference in Egypt.

Biden, meanwhile, reported that he stressed to Xi that Beijing also has an obligation to temper North Korea’s destabilizing missile and nuclear activity that has the Pacific region on edge.

Leon Panetta, the former White House chief of staff, defense secretary and CIA chief, expressed cautious optimism after talks on the sidelines of the G20 summit.

“If the result of this meeting is to put the relationship back on a more diplomatic plane, in which instead of beating each other up they can begin a dialogue on the kind of issues that need to be dealt with, I think this meeting could very well be pivotal,” Panetta told CNN’s John King on “Inside Politics.”

On the Cold War Cold War and the Problem of the Close Relationship Between Beijing and Moscow in the 21st Century: CNN’s World Affairs Columnist

The Chinese Foreign Ministry said the two sides should not try to change or subvert the other’s system.

So, Washington’s foreign policy has come full circle, since part of Richard Nixon’s motivation in engaging China during the 1970s Cold War deep freeze was to open strategic gaps between Beijing and Moscow.

Putin might have thought that his friendship with Xi would work out quite well. China still refuses to call the Russia military campaign an attack, even though it was aprovoked attack on its neighbor. But China has not armed Russian forces, and has at times issued veiled warnings against Russia’s threat of using nuclear weapons.

A world affairs columnist is Frida Ghitis, a former CNN producer and correspondent. She is a weekly opinion contributor to CNN, a contributing columnist to The Washington Post and a columnist for World Politics Review. The views expressed in this commentary are her own. There is more opinion on CNN.

The Ultimate Battleground for the War in Ukraine: A Momentary of Putin’s Return to Kherson and a New Hope for the United States

The idea of a global contest between democracies and autocracies seemed theoretical and intangible when Biden voiced it while running for president. It’s all too real now.

After Russian invaded the province of Kherson, the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made a triumphant return to the destroyed city.

But Putin issued his riposte in an annual address, framing the war in Ukraine as a wider existential battle against the West. After Biden vowed the US will be with Ukraine for as long as it takes, Putin’s speech underlined just how long that may be, raising the possibility of more years of war that will stretch the commitment of Western governments and populations to the cause.

The progress of democracy in recent years has been good but leaders need to show they can navigate the economic challenges of the future. They will face continued efforts by autocrats to regain the upper hand, like Russian President Putin and Chinese leader Xi in particular.

In terms of presidential stagecraft, Biden overshadowed Putin this week, with his daring overnight train journey into Kyiv and speech in the Polish capital, a location chosen for its role on NATO’s frontline. Putin’s address to the Russian parliament was a staider affair, sprinkled with his now familiar nuclear threats and conspiracy theories about the West.

Tellingly, Putin chose not to attend the G20 summit in Bali, avoiding confrontations with world leaders as he increasingly becomes a pariah on the global stage.

Russian President Vladimir V. Putin meets Wang Yi in the Kremlin – and what they have to learn from a long war in Ukraine

Biden isn’t the only leader with a strong hand. A third term for President Xi is good for China as he can now rule for as long as he wants. He doesn’t need to worry about elections, a critical press or a vociferous opposition party. He is essentially the absolute ruler of a mighty country for many years to come.

In the short term, I think China will experience chaos, rather than progress because they are poorly prepared to deal with Covid.

Also crucial in the epochal competition between the two systems is showing that democracy works, defeating efforts of autocratic countries such as China and Russia to discredit it and proving that unprovoked wars of aggression, aimed at suppressing democracy and conquering territory, will not succeed.

In this photograph, provided by Russian state media, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia is meeting with Wang Yi, China’s top foreign policy official, at the Kremlin in Moscow on Wednesday.

Both leaders will talk about bilateral relations between their countries and exchange views on regional issues. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Thursday.

Beijing’s claim to neutrality has been severely undermined by its refusal to acknowledge the nature of the conflict – it has so far avoided calling it an “invasion” – and its diplomatic and economic support for Moscow.

But more than 10 months into the grinding war, the world looks much different – and the dynamic between both partners has shifted accordingly, experts say.

But dismissing Putin’s conspiratorial claims and sense that the West is engaged in a long campaign to topple him would be a mistake. While conventional victory may be beyond Russia, Putin may be able to live with a long grinding war that inflicts devastation on more Ukrainian cities, kills more Ukrainians, ends up costing Western governments billions and gradually hikes pressures on leaders in the US and Europe to pull back.

On Thursday, Russia launched what Ukrainian officials described as one of the biggest missile barrages since the war began in February, with explosions rattling villages and cities across Ukraine, damaging civilian infrastructure and killing at least three people.

Ukrainian officials have been cautioning for days that Russia is preparing to launch an all-out assault on the power grid to close out 2022, plummeting the country into darkness as Ukrainians attempt to ring in the New Year and celebrate the Christmas holidays, which for the country’s Orthodox Christians falls on January 7.

Xi’s Rise and Fall: A Tribute to the Covid War, Not the Times of War, or How the World Has Come to an End

According to an associate professor at the National University of Singapore, China is becoming more isolated in its stance toward Russia.

Modi told Putin in the fall that this was not the time for war and that he should be moving toward peace.

While Xi hopes to improve his relationship with the west, his nationalist agenda and close relationship with Russia will likely complicate matters.

She added that trade between the two countries had increased this year due to high energy prices globally – and the two leaders could “reaffirm their vows to cooperate economically.”

However, Wu said, the protests, Covid outbreak and consequent economic toll have placed Xi in a more vulnerable position that could mean less material and public support for Russia.

This story was found in CNN’s Meanwhile in China newsletter, a three-times-a-week update about what you need to know about the country’s rise and how it impacts the world. This is the place for you to sign up.

The country is in a state of chaos with large swathes of the country facing an unprecedented Covid wave.

But the haphazard reopening also offers a glimmer of hope for many: after three years of stifling Covid restrictions and self-imposed global isolation, life in China may finally return to normal as the nation joins the rest of the world in learning to live with the virus.

In a nationally televised New Year’s Eve speech, the president stated that they have entered a new phase of Covid response. Everyone is being strong and holding on, and the light is in front of them. Let’s make an extra effort to pull through, as perseverance and solidarity mean victory.”

The sudden lifting of restrictions last month led to an explosion of cases, with little preparation in place to deal with the surging numbers of patients and deaths.

Hospitals are overwhelmed, doctors are stretched to the limit, cremations are struggling to keep up, and the country’s frail health system is scrambling to cope.

And experts warn the worst is yet to come. While some major metropolises like Beijing may have seen the peak of the outbreak, less-developed cities and the vast rural hinterland are still bracing for more infections.

Hundreds of millions of Chinese will return to their hometowns during the upcoming Lunar New Year, bringing the tHe virus to the rural areas where vaccination rates are less and medical resources less available.

The government has launched a booster campaign for the elderly, but many remain reluctant to take it due to concerns about side effects. When medical workers are already stretched thin, vaccine hesitancy will require time and effort.

Emergence of China in the First Three Months of the Inflationary Season: The Implications for China’s Reputation and Relations

A boost in Chinese growth will provide a boost to the rest of the world. There will be more international travel and production. But rising demand will also drive up prices of energy and raw materials, putting upward pressure on global inflation.

The economy is expected to improve after March according to other experts. HSBC economists predicted that the first quarter would have a contraction but that growth would come in the following years.

Despite all this uncertainty, Chinese citizens are celebrating the partial reopening of the border after the end of quarantine for international arrivals and the resumption of outbound travel.

The rapid liberalization of restrictions on travel within the area caused some residents to feel concerned online, but now many are planning overseas. Travel websites recorded massive spikes in traffic after the announcement of the easing of restrictions.

Several Chinese nationals overseas told CNN they had been unable or unwilling to return home for the last few years while the lengthy quarantine was still in place. That stretch meant major life moments missed and spent apart: graduations, weddings, childbirths, deaths.

The foreign embassies and tourism departments of some countries are inviting Chinese travelers back to their country by posting invitations on social media. New testing requirements for travelers from China are among the reasons that some countries are more cautious.

Officials from these countries have pointed to the risk of new variants emerging from China’s outbreak – though numerous health experts have criticized the targeted travel restrictions as scientifically ineffective and alarmist, with the risk of inciting further racism and xenophobia.

As China emerges from its self-imposed isolation, all eyes are on whether it will be able to repair its reputation and relations that soured during the pandemic.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/02/china/china-2023-lookahead-intl-hnk-mic/index.html

The Rise and Fall of Autocracy in the 2022 Non-Peripheral Era: A Tale of Three Generations

The lack of top-level face-to-face diplomacy certainly didn’t help, neither did the freeze on in-person exchanges among policy advisers, business groups and the wider public.

Communication lines are back open and more high-level exchanges are in the pipeline – with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, French President Emmanuel Macron, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte and Italy’s newly elected Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni all expected to visit Beijing this year.

In the new year, tensions may again flare over Taiwan, technological containment, as well as China’s support for Russia – which Xi underlined during a virtual meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on December 30.

Both leaders expressed a message of unity, with Xi saying the two countries should “strengthen strategic coordination” and “inject more stability into the world,” according to Chinese state media Xinhua.

China is willing to work with Russia to fight Hegemonism and power politics, and to oppose “lateralism”, said the president. Putin invited Xi to Moscow in the spring of 2023.

It was an open question. At the time, many people believed that autocracy would be the better system. How many believe that today?

Russia, China or Iran are seen as a better model than an open society with all its challenges. How many believe the US would be better off with a more autocratic president?

The public display of its fatal flaws has caused autocracy’s appeal to diminish in the past year. Mistakes are made when you can’t tell leaders they’re wrong. Even if the ruler leads his people toward a cliff, it will not be challenged because of his powerful and ruthless nature.

The autocracy brothers wanted the world to think their system was superior, a message that would preemptively quiet any doubts at home. For 16 consecutive years, according to the non-partisan democracy monitor Freedom House, democracy was losing ground. According to the organization, only 20% of the world’s population lived in “Free countries”.

In 2022, while these global strongmen struggled, self-assured “geniuses” like Elon Musk – who more than once appeared to side with autocrats – revealed their own shortcomings, and oppressed populations fed up with decades of tyranny demanded change.

The imperialist ploy to conquer neighboring Ukraine struck like a thunderbolt, thanks to Putin. No longer was freedom a vague ideal. The battle for democracy wasn’t a metaphor anymore. The war was real with missiles and carnage.

NATO was strengthened in a way that hadn’t been seen in decades by the invasion. Even Sweden and Italy, countries that had cared for their neutrality, wanted to join.

Human Rights Defenders of the Theocracy: Syria as a Landmine of Women’s Propagation in the Cold War

In Iran, women rose up against the theocracy, fed up with its repressive rules. The regime responded with violence that killed hundreds, according to human rights organizations.

No one expected the activists of the organization to stand up for themselves and their beliefs. How far will they go? How far will the regime go to snuff them out? How will the rest of the world respond?

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/06/opinions/democracy-china-russia-2023-ghitis/index.html

Is Donald Trump In or Out With Putin? The Anomalies of the Trump Dilemma: Where the Dwarfs Are

Former President Donald Trump launched a new presidential campaign. It was what the British called a “damp squib,” a lead balloon. He’s becoming an increasingly isolated, rather pathetic figure after many of his top choices failed in the midterm elections and election deniers fared badly. The rebellion this week seemed to follow his calls for Republicans to unite behind Kevin McCarthy. And while the struggle over the speakership may have seemed dysfunctional, it was democracy, in all its messy wrangling, on display. Trumps legal troubles seem endless.

In Brazil, Trump’s doppelganger, Jair Bolsonaro, lost his bid for reelection. He refused to acknowledge defeat or attend the inauguration of the man who defeated him, President Lula da Silva. Instead, a grim Bolsonaro decamped to Florida.

Boris Johnson, a populist demagogue, lost the UK premier’s office and was replaced by a centrist named Rishi Sunak. Back when Johnson was in charge of the European Union, populists wanted their own versions of the country’s exit. We don’t hear that anymore. Like other European populists, Marine Le Pen had to run away from her support for Putin because of her close relationship to the Russian leader.

In addition to fortifying NATO and strengthening alliances, which President Joe Biden’s administration has accomplished with great success, the US must aim to forestall the creation of a credible, unified force of aggressive antidemocratic regimes.

But the rule of the strongest doesn’t work when you can’t win, which is how Russia’s plans started to unravel, and China had to rethink its commitment.

Is Xi in or out with Putin? Xi seems to want it both ways. He wants to improve his relationship with a country that invaded its neighbor but he wants to be seen as a responsible global leader.

According to US intelligence, Russia has bought artillery shells from North Korea, another notorious dictatorship, which denies its involvement in a war whose morality is beyond the pale.

Iran claimed that its weapons were not used in the war, changing its previous denials. Now, newly-declassified documents show the drones in Ukraine are identical to those Iran has used in the Middle East.

Russia and Iran both have repressive regimes and have turned them into pariahs to much of the world.

This week, Iran’s president visited China for the first time in 20 years. The trip, at Xi’s invitation, ostensibly aims to implement an agreement for a 25-year strategic cooperation pact the two reached at a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in 2021.

Such suspicions are compounded by claims by US officials that Beijing is considering stepping up its partnership with Moscow by supplying Russia’s military with “lethal support.”

Clearly, there’s an internal contradiction in Xi’s dual goals. If you want to elevate your standing to that of a respected global leader, it’s hard to create an alliance of rule-breaking autocrats and assorted dictators, and then expect other countries to join enthusiastically.

Beijing is pushing harder for a negotiated end to the war in Ukraine as it enters its second year. It has repeatedly suggested it would be willing to broker any cease-fire negotiations, a proposal Ukrainians are wary of because of China’s close ties with Moscow.

Wang said that Beijing would continue to work for peace even if it was possible to get rid of all countries.

Yet China is also wary of alienating European countries further with its notable lack of condemnation of Russia’s war. China attempted to tread a fine line in the paper.

The European Commission president told CNN that there was more proof that China wasn’t working with Russia.

The US has warned Beijing against providing lethal support, since the Russians consistently have been asking the Chinese for weapons. The Secretary of State of the US discussed this topic with his Chinese counterpart in the German city of Munich this weekend.

It will be the first visit to Russia from a Chinese official in that role since the war began, according to the foreign ministry.

US officials tell CNN that there are signs that China wants to provide military assistance to Russia without being caught, and that there are disturbing trends in China’s support for Russia’s military.

According to CNN, US officials were worried enough with the intelligence that they shared it with their allies. The US said that in a meeting on the sidelines of the conference, Wang was warned of the consequences of the issue as well as where it was coming from.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken raised the issue when he met with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, on Saturday on the sidelines of the conference, officials said.

A senior State Department official told reporters that the Secretary warned about the consequences of China assisting Russia with systematic sanctions evasion.

What can we do to end this war? Chinese and European diplomats in Ukraine have come to terms with a bitter blow from the U.S.

This warfare cannot continue to rage on. At the conference Wang said, we need to think about what we can do to bring this warfare to an end.

That equipment has included items like flak jackets and helmets, multiple sources familiar with US and European intelligence told CNN. But China has stopped short of the more robust military assistance, like lethal weapons systems for use on the battlefield in Ukraine, that Russia has requested because it has not wanted to be seen as a pariah on the world stage, officials said.

“The concern that we have now is based on information we have that they’re considering providing lethal support. And we’ve made very clear to them that that would cause a serious problem for us and in our relationship,” he added.

As US President Joe Biden landed in Ukraine to meet with Volodymyr Zelensky, China’s top diplomat went the other way on his way to Russia.

The optics of the two trips – taking place just days before the one-year anniversary of the brutal war on Friday – underscores the sharpening of geopolitical fault lines between the world’s two superpowers.

The propaganda message that was often used during China’s nightly prime-time news program was that the US is prolonging the war because they don’t add fuel to the fire.

The war in Ukraine may not end in a hurry due to a number of reasons, including the rivalry with the US.

He asked European officials to think about what a framework would be to bring lasting peace to Europe.

Beijing’s response to the Russian-US war on the evelopment of cooperation in the Cold War and its impact on the relations between Russia and the US

The US supplies a steady stream of weapons to the battlefield while the Chinese do not. The US side is not capable of lecturing China or even coercing pressure on relations with Russian, a ministry spokesman said at a news conference.

“Who is calling for dialogue and peace? And who is handing out knives and encouraging confrontation? It is possible for the international community to see clearly.

Beijing had been careful in avoiding actions that could lead to secondary sanctions, which would cause a devastating blow to an economy hampered by three years of zero- Covid policy.

And while Beijing’s pro-Russian rhetoric appears to have softened in recent months, its support for Moscow – when measured by its annual trade, diplomatic engagements and schedule of joint military exercises – has bolstered over the past year.

Chinese officials have often calibrated their narrative to different audiences. Wang may have made a lot of appealing pledges during his European tour, but whether they will be converted into a consistent message to be delivered to Putin when they meet at the Kremlin this week is a question.

The West received a huge boost in its support for the resistance to Russia by Biden when he visited the Ukrainian capital on Monday, and his speech in Warsaw a day later that repudiated Putin.

A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said Monday that the upcoming visit by Lukashenko would give the two countries a chance to move forward.

Vladimir Putin versus Ukraine: a case for a diplomatic solution to the foreign policy problems of the Ukrainian conflict in the US and the West

And this new and complicated foreign policy picture is not just a problem for American diplomats. As the US and Western countries deplete their weapons stock to help Ukraine, there are questions as to whether current defense spending is sufficient. Key Republicans are accusing Biden of snubbing voters facing economic problems and other problems, even as he is trying to position Democrats as protectors of working Americans in the race for the White House.

Biden said that the Ukrainian people would love their country and that President Putin would fail on his lust for land and power.

That could be the case. There was no prospect of the war ending in the near future according to Putin. In telling Russians the conflict was critical to their own nation’s existence and part of an effort by the West to attack Russia, he set the stage for months more bloodshed and narrowed even further already distant avenues for some kind of face-saving exit if Russia does not prevail.

Putin is living in an alternate reality to Western ears. Biden disagreed with his claims of Western imperialism, saying he spoke for the people of Russia. Neither the United States nor Europe wants to control or destroy Russia. The West was not planning to attack Russia, as Putin said today.

The Russian leader will likely be watching rising opposition to Biden’s involvement in the war among conservatives in the US. On the day that Biden stood with the Ukrainians in Kyiv, Ron DeSantis implied that the fate of the country wouldn’t be a priority if he were elected president.

“The fear of Russia going into NATO countries and all that, and steamrolling, that has not even come close to happening,” DeSantis said on Fox. I think they have shown they’re a top military power.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/21/politics/president-biden-vladmir-putin-china-ukraine/index.html

The US-Russia Economic Connection after Biden’s Russia-US War: Prospects for the Continuum Cold War, Russia’s Influence on the Development of the Fourth Cold War

The estrangement between the US and Russia is almost finished, as shown by Biden’s trip.

Putin, for example, announced Tuesday that Russia would suspend participation in the New START nuclear treaty with the United States. It was not clear what practical impact this would have since Moscow has stopped fully implementing the deal.

Russia lacks the resources to start a nuclear arms race with Washington due to its struggling economy and intense pressure on conventional forces. The failure of the last building block of a post-Cold War thaw between Russia and the US shows the lack of communication between the rivals.

If the war in Ukraine continues, there will be no return to normal between Washington and Moscow even after the Biden administration accuses Russia of crimes against humanity.

One reason why the US was willing to talk with Russia even though things were not normal was because the top two nuclear powers are not talking.

US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield said on CNN Sunday that such a step would cross a US red line but did not specify what consequences would be.

The long-dragging conflict could lead to a division between Europe and the US, furthering Chinas foreign policy goals. It could cause more political dissent in Washington, which could make it harder for Biden to fulfill his foreign policy goals.

In his opening remarks, Mr. Putin highlighted the economic aspect of the China-Russia relationship, predicting that the countries’ annual trade volume could reach $200 billion as early as this year, compared with $185 billion last year.

Mr. Putin said that they are reaching new frontiers. We are talking about economic issues.

The fighting in Ukraine did not use the words war or invasion in Mr. Wang’s published comments. Mr. Wang may be more hesitant to expose any differences between China and Russia.

The Biden administration on Friday will be putting “constraints” on Chinese companies believed to be “active in evading sanctions” related to the war in Ukraine, a top US State Department official said Thursday.

More on US sanctions: She noted that the US had recently sanctioned a Chinese company called Spacety “which was providing geo-location support to the Wagner group in Bakhmut.”

The upcoming sanctions will not only impose restrictions on more Russian banks that have been evading sanctions, but also the people who are making money from Russia’s oil trade.

China’s Cold War with the West: a Critical Look at a Beijing Conference Briefing on the Ukraine Crisis in November 2001, Geneva, Switzerland, and Brussels

Nuland didn’t indicate how the Chinese will present the plan. China will make a presentation at a UN Security Council meeting tomorrow. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is going to be at the meeting.

China is attempting to have it both ways. China is trying to broadcast and disguise itself in this veneer of neutrality, even as it deepens its engagement with Russia in key ways – politically, diplomatically, economically, and potentially in the security realm as well,” State Department spokesperson Ned Price said Wednesday.

The Chinese position paper made a number of digs about the approach of the west to the war. It advocated for the abandonment of the “cold war mentality”, which it said was caused by the creation of more problems.

“Conflict and war benefit no one. The paper says that all parties must stay rational, exercise restraint and avoid fanning the flames in an effort to prevent the crisis from getting out of control.

It also appears to criticize the wide-ranging economic sanctions imposed by the US and other Western countries on Russia. “Unilateral sanctions and maximum pressure cannot solve the issue; they only create new problems,” it said. There must be a stop to the abuses of long-arm jurisdiction against other countries so that they can do their share in deescalating the Ukraine crisis.

Much of the language used in the document appears targeted at the West. In a thinly veiled criticism of the United States, the paper said, “Cold War mentality” should be abandoned.

“The security of a region should not be achieved by strengthening or expanding military blocs. It said that the legitimate security interests of all countries must be taken seriously and that the issues must be addressed properly.

The paper was swiftly criticized by American officials, with US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan saying the war “could end tomorrow if Russia stopped attacking Ukraine and withdrew its forces.”

“China should do everything in its power to stop the war and restore peace in Ukraine and urge Russia to withdraw its troops,” Ukraine’s Chargé d’Affaires to China Zhanna Leshchynska said at the same briefing in Beijing.

The Chinese Embassy in Kiev to apologise for the actions of the U.S. and China in the aftermath of the Ukraine crisis

Wang said that this requires them to identify changes more voluntary and respond to them in a more active way.

The paper stated that negotiation is the only viable solution to the Ukraine crisis. Efforts to reach a peaceful settlement of the crisis must be supported.

China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, was sent to Moscow earlier this week to meet the Russian president and other officials to try and find a solution to the crisis.

There’s not a lot of leverage involved. The document lays out broad, general principles, but no real reason why you might want to cease and desist, right? There isn’t a big appeal for you to get something. Ian Chong said there’s no cost if you don’t comply.

It is not apparent that Beijing has made a final decision, but there are still negotiations between Russia and China pertaining to the price and scope of the equipment.

Beijing is hesitant about providing lethal equipment that may be traced back to China because of the risk of international blowback, and it still prefers the provision of any equipment to Russia to be non-attributable.

At a critical moment it could provide a significant boost to Russian capabilities. The head of the Russian mercenary group, known as the “Wagner”, published photos of several dozen dead fighters and blamed the Russians for their deaths because they could not supply them with enough weapons.

China’s stance on Ukraine as promoting peace talks: a Chinese press conference in the heart of Kiev, Ukraine, on March 23

Wang Yi, the Chinese counterpart, believes that China’s position on Ukraine can be seen as promoting peace talks.

The lines between public and private entities in China are not very significant, according to sources.

In a news conference in the heart of the Ukrainian capital, the President said that he was confident his country could win the war and expressed hope that China would not provide lethal military.

Asked about reports that Beijing was considering providing Moscow with lethal weapons, Mr. Zelensky initially ignored the question. He said that his priority was to make sure China did not arm Russia when he was raised again.

Mr. Zelensky talked to the reporter directly, telling her that the question was not about geography or geopolitics but about basic principles.

Does China believe that innocents should not be killed? That a nuclear power plant should not be occupied? The invader should leave the nation if they respect the rights of the nation.

New York Times Reporters Reflect on Moments from the War that Are Seared in Their Minds: Israel’s Relations with Russia and Ukraine

“I am already starting public diplomatic relations here,” he said, before switching to English to stress his openness to direct talks with China. “We have so many common issues, we have to speak between us with no one else.”

Russia is getting attack drones from Iran and the West warned Moscow it was trying to acquire missiles. This is where Mr. Zelensky was asked about Israel. Israel and Ukraine share a common enemy, he was asked, so why are they not stronger allies?

He said that he understood Israel’s relationship with Russia but that he wanted Israel to take a tougher stance against it since it started the war.

There were questions about the internal disagreements in his government. A journalist from Azeri wanted a selfies with the Ukrainian leader for his son. Mr. Zelensky obliged.

The Ukrainian leader said he saw the first atrocities committed by Russian soldiers in Bucha, when the war began. “It was horrible,” he said.

Even if the answer to how and whenUkraine could win the war was determined on the battlefield, the questions about it were plentiful over more than two and half hours.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/02/24/world/russia-ukraine-zelensky-news/new-york-times-reporters-reflect-on-the-moments-from-the-war-that-are-seared-in-their-minds

Belarus’ Ambassador Alexander Lukashenko meets China in a planned all-weather strategic partnership on a possible route to a peaceful solution to the Ukraine crisis

Mr. Zelensky dismissed the idea of negotiations with Moscow, saying that at this moment they would make no sense. He said Russia must stop destruction and killing before any talks could take place.

Belarus’ President Alexander Lukashenko is scheduled to hold talks with Chinese officials in Beijing from Tuesday to Thursday at the invitation of Chinese leader Xi Jinping, China’s Foreign Ministry announced Sunday.

His trip comes after the two leaders agreed to upgrade their countries’ ties to an “all-weather comprehensive strategic partnership” during a September meeting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Uzbekistan, which Putin also attended.

In an interview with Chinese state news agency Xinhua released ahead of his visit, Lukashenko is cited as saying the position paper was a testimony to China’s peaceful foreign policy and a new and original step that would have a far-reaching impact.

The conflict in Ukraine will loom over discussions of the economic ties between the two countries that are expected this week.

Belarus has been targeted by sweeping sanctions from the US and its allies in response to Moscow’s aggression after Lukashenko allowed Russian troops to invade Ukraine through the 1,000-kilometer (621-mile) Ukrainian-Belarusian border north of Kyiv.

A decade ago, the Belt and Road initiative was launched by China, and trade between the two countries last year increased to over $5 billion.

In a Friday call between China’s Foreign Minister and his counterpart in Belarus, Qin Gang promised to oppose external interference in the country’s internal affairs and to impose illegal sanctions on it.