Ahead of the 2024 primaries, Biden and Trump are moving in opposite directions

The Future of the Democratic Party: Trump’s reentering presidency on Capitol Hill has not been good for the party, but does it affect how Republicans will vote

A group of House and Senate Republicans recoiled on Monday at the prospect of Donald Trump reentering the presidency this week, a sign of his waning support on Capitol Hill after years of scandal and controversy.

A new CNN/SSRS poll shows that 6 in 10 Republicans and GOP-leaning independents want their party to nominate someone other than Trump in 2024. On the other side, there is a hope for a nominee other than Biden.

“I want someone who is going to unite our party,” said South Dakota Sen. Mike Rounds, refusing to say if he would back Trump. “That’s how we win elections. A person who would put the party together.

Idaho Rep. Mike Simpson added of Trump: “Let’s see who runs. I don’t believe it is good for the party. … His policies were well thought out. I don’t like all the drama with it.

The sentiment was shared up and down the line by one-time allies of the former president, a sign that he has grown increasingly unpopular on Capitol Hill.

The Donald Trump Campaign: Where are we going? Where do we go? Where will we go from here? What will we do next? How will we look to the future?

“None of us will get these jobs,” said Kevin Cramer, a Trump ally and North Dakota Republican. He is not entitled to it. I won’t be making a decision on endorsing this soon.

Others began floating rival candidates. GOP Sen. Jerry Moran said he had his eyes on fellow Kansan and ex-secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, as well as South Carolina Republican Sen. Tim Scott.

“I think we have lots of Republicans who are interested in being our nominee for president,” Moran said when asked about Trump. “And I’m interested in letting the American people make this decision. … I am interested in seeing those people rise to the top.

Ron DeSantis. The Florida governor is the best possible Trump challenger to date. He has become a household name by attacking what he calls liberal orthodoxies in government and culture. A DeSantis campaign probably won’t arrive for months, after Florida’s legislative session ends and Mr. DeSantis has new policy victories to promote.

Several Republicans on Monday blamed Trump for pushing forward lackluster candidates and obsessing about his 2020 election loss as undercutting the case they tried to make against Democrats this year.

South Dakota Sen. John Thune of South Dakota, the No. 2 Republican in the Senate, said that it’s clear that “relitigating the 2020 election is not a winning strategy.”

Looking forward is a better strategy said Sen. Capito of West Virginia. I think looking back to 2020 didn’t work out.

In private, the view was harsher. One moderate-leaning GOP lawmaker said of the presidential campaign, that it was like season seven of The Apprentice. People are fed up with it and want to stop watching it. Let’s find something else.”

“I think that President Trump and election denying was an albatross around Republican necks,” Romney said. “And frankly, I think he’s been on the mountain too long. We’ve lost three races with him. And I’d like to see someone from the bench, come up and take his place and lead our party and help lead the country.”

Texas Republican lawmaker Michael McCaul said it was his decision when asked about Trump in the future. “I think that every member will have to look and see what is out in the field.”

Even as President Joe Biden and ex-President Donald Trump move toward a rerun of the most turbulent White House race in modern history, many voters are pining for a break from the past – and the present.

Of course, it’s early. In an age of crises at home and overseas, logic, history, polls, and pre-race predictions often do not count when it comes time to vote.

But the race is on, whether voters want it or not. Early perceptions of the contenders’ strengths are important since they shape the decisions of potential rivals and donors in the early money chase. Trump is a declared candidate that could use a relaunch to get into the race, but Biden is giving a lot of signs that he will run early in the new year.

A survey done by the college after the election shows that Republicans thought Trump wouldn’t be the strongest candidate, but their percentage went up to 55 percent. There can be little doubt that’s at least partially a response to Trump-backed candidates doing poorly in swing states during the midterms.

During the 2022 midterm elections, many Democratic congressional candidates won by connecting their opponents to Mr. Trump and the “Big Lie” that the 2020 election had been stolen. A senior White House adviser, who asked for anonymity to discuss political strategy, said that since those elections ended, Mr. Biden has been hampered by having no well-defined opponent (and only Mr. Trump as a declared candidate for 2024).

Some party loyalists are thinking of a contender on the Republican side. While Trump benefits from a dedicated base of support and, so far, being the only official candidate in the race, his victory is far from certain. The culture war battles and policy wins that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has revved up the GOP base have been attributed to his closer age to the former President’s oldest children.

The question of his age, however, might be less important if Biden faces Trump, who is already 76. The current commander in chief might be vulnerable to a young Republican challenger who is in his 40s.

One of Trump’s biggest attributes has been that he has convinced his supporters that he is a winner. Three years ago, the majority of Republicans thought he was the best candidate to beat the Democratic nominee for president. As recently as late 2021, a plurality of Republicans did so.

It is possible that Republican politics will be at a moment of transition. How things shake out over the next few months will be crucial to Trumps future. On the one hand, more and more Republicans – prompted by the failure of many of the ex-president’s hand-picked candidates in the midterms – are saying it’s time to move on.

And Trump’s dinner with extremists with a record of antisemitism like White supremacist Nick Fuentes and rapper Kanye West at Mar-a-Lago is bolstering their arguments that his general election viability is damaged beyond repair. Trump’s so-far lackluster campaign, which looks like it was declared to make it easier for him to portray criminal probes into his conduct as persecution, isn’t convincing anyone so far.

And yet, the former president’s allies, like Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia and Jim Jordan of Ohio, will be hugely influential in the new GOP House majority. Paradoxically, the failure of Republicans to do better in November means that a thinner majority will be easier for extremists to manipulate as they seek to turn Republican control of half of the Capitol into a weapon to damage Biden and help Trump in 2024.

GOP hopefuls will see that 38% – the lowest point of three CNN polls on the topic this year – as an opening for an anti-Trump candidate. There could be a field that could splinter the opposition to the ex-president.

In the run up to the elections, the Republicans and the Democrats talked about the endorsement of Donald Trump by the President of the United States. A little over a month after the election, however, the picture looks quite different.

Perhaps the best indication of Biden’s strength is that he has no obvious potential 2024 primary opponent at this point. Now, as an incumbent, he was unlikely to ever have a slew of challengers. You could have imagined, though, that at least one major Democrat would have challenged Biden had the Democrats done poorly in the midterms.

The same cannot be said for Trump. Even after he declared his run for the presidency last month, just one senator has endorsed his bid for another term. Potential Republican challengers are not bowing out of the 2024 primary.

The reason for this is the fact that Trump’s poll numbers are weak. I’m not just talking about his polling against other Republicans. I’m talking about how Republican voters see him.

Since he defeated former President Donald J. Trump in 2020, Mr. Biden has had difficulty conjuring a useful political villain, in part because Democrats controlled the White House and both houses of Congress. For much of his first year, Mr. Biden seemed to be fighting more with his own party — specifically, Senators Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona and Joe Manchin III of West Virginia — than with Republicans.

According to the CNN survey, more Democrats than not want someone other than Biden to be the party’s nominee.

Republicans were asked if they wanted to be the party’s candidate for the presidential election in ten years, and the poll didn’t say who they wanted. 26% of respondents said that they preferred Trump. He came in behind him at 39%.

This indicates that Trump’s biggest strength at this point among Republicans is name recognition – something other Republicans will get a lot more of as the primary season heats up.

CNN reported Tuesday that a source said that Haley was expected to start her campaign in Charleston on February 15. The likes of former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo make political throat clearing noises when promoting a book on the conservative media circuit. And South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott is setting off on a listening tour focusing on faith. His first two stops will be Iowa and his own state, both where early voting is encouraged during the GOP primary contest.

Being able to build up large delegate leads in a crowded field helps Trump and he did it in the 2016 election.

In other words, if Trump can split the opposition, he can win the primary, but that’s no guarantee for the general election given that the twice-impeached former president left Washington in disgrace after trying to steal an election and fomenting a mob attack on the US Capitol.

What does Haley intend to do when she becomes US Ambassador to the United Nations? The first major candidate will face the Republican presidential nomination in the next four years

Haley was the US ambassador to the UN. The former president, who announced his bid last year, recently appeared to bless her entrance into the race, telling reporters that she had called to tell him she was considering a campaign launch and that he had said, “You should do it.”

The Washington establishment has failed us many times. It’s time for a new generation of leadership to rediscover fiscal responsibility, secure our border and strengthen our country, our pride and our purpose,” Haley, who is expected to deliver remarks Wednesday in Charleston at a campaign launch event, said in the video.

Yet the most fundamental question that Haley will face is whether the Republican base, which has rewarded culture warriors, extreme “Make America Great Again” rhetoric and election denialists, has any interest at all in what she plans to sell.

Her credentials look formidable in isolation but less so when considering the values of the party whose nomination she is seeking. For example, is there really a market in the GOP for a more unifying, multicultural, less strident delivery vehicle for Trump’s “America First” creed? The ex-president has a bombast, profanity, and laceration of liberal government and media that creates more than a ideological connection with his biggest fans.

After leaving the administration on good terms, she chastised her party for following the path that Trump had taken with his election denialism. But with Trump still a powerful figure in the GOP, she repositioned herself in October 2021.

The former South Carolina governor casting around for the GOP sweet spot has observers wondering how she will build enough support to win the nomination.

Haley will be the first major candidate to challenge Trump for the Republican presidential nomination in four years.

“I’ve spent time in Iowa and New Hampshire. He said at the forum in DC that this was not random. We are just trying to figure this out. He said it was an “unbelievable” decision to say you believe you should be the leader of the United States of America.

Joe Biden and Sarah Huckabees: The Phenomenology of a Good, Evil, and Behavioural President

Pompeo appears to have an even more acute positioning issue than Haley, since he was the ex-president’s effective enforcer at the State Department and while director of the CIA, and shared many of the populist, nationalist foreign policy instincts of his former boss. Almost everything that a GOP primary voter could get from Pompeo, they might be able to get from Trump, although the West Point graduate and former Kansas congressman would no doubt argue that he boasts a calmer temperament.

Arkansas Governor Sarah Huckabees gave a combative speech in response to the State of the Union Address by President Joe Biden that drew a sharp contrast with his speech.

McCarthy called Sanders “a servant-leader of true determination and conviction,” in a statement and said that she will share a “bold vision for a better America on Tuesday. Everyone, including President Biden, should listen carefully.”

The President spoke to the nation and highlighted his priorities, which gave the country a platform to hear from both the candidate for president and Biden.

He served as the White House press secretary and a steadfast supporter of the policies of the former President, as well as clashing with national reporters.

She was the first woman to be elected governor of Arkansas. Mike Huckabee was governor of the state from 1996 to 2007.

If the State of the Union address was the beginning of Joe Biden’s quest for reelection, Republicans should be worried. The President has shown that he is more proficient at likability than ever before, for all of the talk about how bad Joe has become.

“In Washington, under the leadership of Senate Republicans and Speaker Kevin McCarthy, we will hold the Biden administration accountable,” Sanders said in a nod to the new political order in the nation’s capital.

Barack Obama and the War-Torn Western Iraq: Where Did We Go? What Did We Learn from the First Lady? Where Do We Go From Here?

“During my two and a half years at the White House, I traveled on every foreign trip with the president,” she said, saying that she “will never forget” a trip that took place on December 25, 2018.

A scene where hundreds of troops who were fighting against Isis gathered in a dining hall to celebrate christmas is what we saw when we landed in war-torn western Iraq.

She said that when the president and the first lady walked into the room, the room erupted. Everyone from men and women of every race, religion, and region, to politicians and demographic, started chanting, “USA, USA, USA.”

After being sworn in as governor, Sanders signed a flurry of executive orders, with one targeting critical race theory “to prohibit indoctrination” in schools and another barring the use of the term “Latinx” in official state documents.

McConnell said in a statement, that Sarah HuckabeeSanders is the youngest governor of the nation and a powerful advocate for the popular, commonsense conservative principles that will put our country back on a better course.

He struck notes of his traditional unity message, pledging to work with the new Republican House leadership and touting his legislative accomplishments in the past year, but Biden also laid out an Average Joe America vision for 2024 full of poll-tested, middle-of-the-road issues, as well as a healthy dose of left-wing populism.

He contrasted himself with right-wing House Republicans who couldn’t help themselves, despite being told not to do so by new House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

The president didn’t call for a whole lot of new policy initiatives from the new Congress — beyond, for example, ending what he called “junk fees” in travel, entertainment and credit cards. He’s likely going to campaign on his vision for America and Republicans’, which is something that he’s already accomplished, since he showed he’s geared up for campaign mode.

The willingness and ability to spar with Republicans and portray them not as normal, but extreme is likely to make Democrats comfortable.

Medicare and Social Security was the best example of this. He deftly riled up House Republicans, accusing some of wanting to cut the popular entitlements. He was careful in that section to note that “some Republicans want Medicare and Social Security to sunset every five years.”

Republicans say that Mr. Biden lied about their intentions. Many, including House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, say they are not willing to consider any proposals to cut funding for Medicare and Social Security to pay for desired reductions in the nation’s debt and deficit. When Mr. Biden suggested the opposite Tuesday night, Republicans erupted in boos.

Any secrets that existed before the exchange were taken off by the exchange. Republicans shouted and heckled, accusing Biden of being a “liar” and others saying “It’s your fault!” when Biden decried fentanyl deaths.

McCarthy, who took 15 rounds to win his speakership because of far-right rejection and his small majority, could clearly be seen shushing his conference at least three times. It’s precisely the look Biden and Democrats wanted to put on display for what will likely be the largest TV audience the president will speak to this year ahead of his expected 2024 reelection announcement.

Americans love an underdog story, especially when mixed with a dose of nationalism. That’s especially true today with right- and left-wing populism clearly the hot ticket in politics. The little guy is against the people in power in the populism of both Biden and Donald Trump. They’re very mad and aren’t going to take it anymore.

Biden went after corporate stock buybacks, oil and gas company profits, Big Pharma, “wealthy tax cheats” and billionaires (hello, Sen. Bernie Sanders).

It was a heavy dose of left-wing populism with policies that are actually quite popular. He said that he will require all construction materials used in federal infrastructure projects to be made in America.

What is the U.S. doing to make America strong, and what is he doing for us, and why does it matter when you aren’t

“I will make no apologies that we are investing to make America strong,” Biden said. “Investing in American innovation, in industries that will define the future, and that China’s government is intent on dominating.”

But there wasn’t much beyond about 200 words of the more than 7,000-word speech devoted to what’s become inarguably one of America’s top geopolitical threats.

On Ukraine, Biden noted the presence of Ukraine’s ambassador and touted what the U.S. has done for the country over the past year of its war with Russia.

There wasn’t much on either country beyond that. That clearly shows Biden’s reelection campaign is going to be focused on domestic, bread-and-butter issues.

“After years of Democrat attacks on law enforcement and calls to ‘Defunding the Police’ violent criminals are free, and law-abiding family live in fear,” she said.

“It’s up to us,” Biden said while talking about the case of Tyre Nichols, who was beaten during a traffic stop by Memphis police and later died. Parents were at Biden’s house. GOP members could be admonished by the mother of Nichols.

Biden said it’s up to all of us. “We all want the same thing — neighborhoods free of violence, law enforcement who earn the community’s trust, our children to come home safely, equal protection under the law. That’s the covenant we have with each other in America. And we know police officers put their lives on the line every day, and we ask them to do too much.”

Biden received bipartisan standing applause, and the way he spoke about it was different from Republicans’ portrayal of him as beholden to the extreme left.

The president and Republicans will play a game on Tuesday night, which will give Americans a more in-depth look at what the president is talking about, says an adviser to Mr. Biden.

She said that having the House Republican caucus behaving in the way they are will give the president an easy contrast. “What the House Republican caucus is doing for him is giving him a way to draw a contrast between what he is for — what he’s trying to get done, and who he’s trying to get it done for — with the House Republicans.”

Bringing Down Debt: Reply to the Corrupt Ideas of Patrick T. Brown at The Ethics and Public Policy Center in Washington, DC

Times reporters cover politics. We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. Times staff members can vote, but they can’t endorse or campaign for candidates. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or donating money to any political candidate or election cause.

But Republicans so far have not said how they propose to reduce spending by a large enough amount to achieve their debt reduction goals. And there have been several notable Republicans who have proposed ideas like making all laws expire after five years unless lawmakers renew them — an idea that Mr. Biden says means Social Security and Medicare would go away automatically if such a vote failed.

The Ethics and Public Policy Center is based in Washington, DC and Patrick T. Brown is a fellow there. He is also a former senior policy adviser to Congress’ Joint Economic Committee. Follow him on Twitter. His own views are reflected in this piece. View more opinion on CNN.

Do we really need an old president? Addressing the 1918 influenza epidemic with a new politician whose campaigning is against an older leader, Julin Castro

The 1918 flu outbreak claimed millions of lives and impacted daily life in a similar way as the recent coronaviruses epidemic. It disappeared in popular culture as soon as it ended. Americans were ready to turn the page on war and pestilence and let loose in the roaring ’20s.

The same dynamic is what one senses today. With the economy beginning to return to normal after the H1N1 epidemic, many Americans are ready for a politics that will focus on new challenges, rather than the old battles over mask mandates and election integrity.

In his speech the President highlighted his administrations commitment to rebuilding America’s supply chain and spurring innovation. But no amount of rhetoric could disguise the fact that our political system could be on a collision course to offer up the rematch no one is asking for.

It is still early. It would be a disservice to the nation to have a presidential election in 2024 that features an up-and-coming politician fighting for their political career rather than an older leader fighting for theirs.

Republicans who want to take the battle to “woke” institutions and push back against the left’s excesses know that the DeSantis model can produce results at the state level.

An explicit age-based argument can backfire if there is a younger candidate trying to push a more seasoned candidate aside. The hard way is found in the case of former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Julin Castro, who learned that attack lines focused on the memory or hearing of an older candidate may not play well. Even if the campaign was against an older opponent, the politician would have to make sure not to sound disrespectful towards the older Americans they are trying to win over.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/09/opinions/biden-trump-america-deserves-more-brown/index.html

Generations in the News: How Donald Trump and Mitt Romney Served in the First Color TV Broadcast, NATO, Israel, and the People’s Republic

The first color TV broadcast, NATO, the founding of the People’s Republic of China and Israel, and other events were all legacies of the incumbent President and his predecessors, with less than 5% of Americans knowing about them from history books.

There is a wisdom in age and valuable perspective in having seen the long sweep of history. Both the president and the former president should understand that there is a need for change but not ageism as they recognize the demands of the job and need for new voices and ideas.

Both Trump and Biden fulfilled their stated primary objectives as President –Trump, to draw attention to the plight of the “forgotten men and women of our country” and to raise questions about the logic of globalization that turned a blind eye to the rise of China, and Biden, to seek a return to something closer to normalcy after the four chaotic years that preceded him.

Whether that’s a younger Democratic nominee more effectively tapping into discontent over the Dobbs decision’s impact on abortion rights, or a Republican candidate speaking, as a parent of young children, about the need to better protect kids online, a passing of the generational torch will allow for a much-needed shift of focus to fresh challenges.

Editor’s Note: Bill McGowan is the founder and CEO of Clarity Media Group, a global communications coaching firm based in New York. He is the author of “Pitch Perfect: How to Say It Right the First Time, Every Time.” Juliana Silva is a strategic communications adviser at Clarity. The views expressed in this commentary are not necessarily those of the authors. View more opinion articles on CNN.

The State of the Union: How a Repulsive President of the U.S. Repented from the 2016 Insights into his 2020 Campaign

The State of the Union jousting between Biden and the Republican caucus perfectly sums up the contrasting styles between the President and his adversaries. The Republicans, with their outrage-driven heckling, are doubling down on their image as brass-knuckled street fighters. They haven’t learned anything from 2020 that Biden thrives when portrayed as an amiable counterpuncher.

That disarming tactic was again on full display during his State of the Union address when he sarcastically told Republicans who voted against the infrastructure bill he signed into law in 2021, yet claimed credit for the jobs it’s bringing to their home districts, “see you at the groundbreaking.”

The question heading into the State of the Union address was: Would Biden’s empathy and decency stand out as much without his chaotic and mean-spirited adversary there to accentuate the stark contrast?

The answer, it seemed, was yes – in part thanks to a new breed of House Republicans more than willing to create chaos in the absence of former President Donald Trump himself.

The President swatted the attacks away and even managed to turn the tables on his critics. Of course, if those GOP rabblerousers had carefully watched videos of his 2020 presidential debates, they would have known that ruffling Biden’s feathers is pretty tough to do. You don’t spend decades in Washington, DC, and still sport a thin skin.

The puzzling question is why are political opponents like Greene creating the same stark contrast in personality that plays right into the President’s hands? It’s a mistake that could cost them in 2024. According to a psychology of voting study voters tend to vote more Democratic when they are given a choice of angel vs. villain.

By keeping the hostility factor high, the GOP is also paving the way for Biden to reuse in 2024 one of his stickiest and most effective campaign messages from 2020: that the election is nothing short of a battle for the “soul of the nation.” Thanks to the new breed of attention-seeking, far-right Republicans, Biden gets to go back to that Regardless of whether he is his opponent or not.

But Biden has made a career out of being underestimated. The State of the Union’s political skill as delivered made one loud statement as the election season approaches: underestimate me at your own peril.

A Conversation with Haley about the Black Lives of Charleston, South Carolina, and a Democratic Congressional Candidate in the Electoral College

The town was divided by the railroad tracks. I was a proud daughter of Indian immigrants. Not Black, not White. I was not the same as everyone else. My mom told me that my job was not to focus on the differences but the similarities. And my parents reminded me and my siblings every day how blessed we were to live in America,” Haley said.

She was first elected to the South Carolina House in 2004, having been president of the National Association of Women Business Owners. She became the first female governor in the nation when she was elected in 2010, and the youngest when she took office in 2011. She resigned in the middle of her second term to become Trump’s ambassador to the UN – a role she served in until the end of 2018.

Haley highlighted her record as the governor of South Carolina and her leadership in the state after nine people were slain at a historically Black church in Charleston in 2015. The Confederate flag should be removed from the grounds of the Statehouse, said Haley after the shooting.

Haley said that people look at America and see vulnerability. The left believes there is an opportunity to change history. China and Russia are on the march. They all think we can be bullied, kicked around. You should know this about me: I don’t put up with bullies and when you kick back it hurts them more if you’re wearing heels.”

Trump was inaccurately referencing a statement Haley made in April 2021 when she said she “would not run if President Trump ran,” a sentiment she later walked back as she called for a new generation of leadership.

As Trump has vented about Haley’s run, some advisers have reminded him how it could benefit him if he faces multiple Republican challenges in the race.

South Carolina Rep. Nancy Mace, who was endorsed by Haley when Trump supported her Republican opponent, told CNN Tuesday she was also worried about the size of the primary field.

“I have concerns if there are too many people on the ballot by the time it gets to South Carolina that it lessens the chances of anyone else coming out in this thing,” Mace said.

The Biddens Physical Drone: Mike Pompeo, a Repentant to the 2016 Midterm Reionization Reaction Controversy

Mike Pence. The former vice president has stumped for midterm candidates, toured early-voting states to sign a memoir and poached staff members from rivals. But his popularity with Republican voters has fallen since he refused to try to block the 2020 election, and he is reluctant to criticize Mr. Trump. There is no hurry for Mr. Pence to make a decision.

Mike Pompeo. Mr. Pompeo has an imposing résumé: congressman, C.I.A. director, secretary of state. He was allowed to tour and try out the president’s message. A home-state paper, The Kansas City Star, said the book reads “like a guy at a bar trying to show his toughness.” Mr. Pompeo has said that he would decide on a bid “in the next handful of months.”

Other people who are Republicans. Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina, former Gov. Larry Hogan of Maryland and Gov. Chris Sununu of New Hampshire are seen as weighing 2024 bids. The possible field is rounded out by Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, Gov. Glenn Youngkin of Virginia and Liz Cheney, who lost her House seat after helping lead the Capitol riot inquiry.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/16/us/politics/bidens-physical-doctor.html

The White House should follow up with the public: He’s tired, but he keeps doing what he can, and when he does

The memo from the doctor was released to the public on Thursday and the White House press secretaries said the president always says to watch him. “And if you watch him, you’ll see that he has a grueling schedule, and he keeps up with that.”

Dr. O’Connor said the stiffness is the result of “significant spinal arthritis, mild post-fracture foot arthritis and a mild sensory peripheral neuropathy of the feet,” for which the president undergoes physical therapy to regain more flexibility.