The troops of Ukraine are in a state of war

Helicopters, missiles, and drones: Where are we coming from? How far can we go? What do we need to know?

Russia used missiles and drones to bombard Ukraine’s energy infrastructure during the last few days. But while the damage has been substantial, Ukraine claims that it has taken out around half of the missiles fired – and it expects that success rate to improve as new air defenses arrive from Germany, the US and elsewhere.

Austin said Ukrainian forces have used “technology like HIMARS” and employed it in the “right way” to “conduct attacks on things like logistical stores and command and control, that’s taking away — taken away significant capability from the Russians.”

The satellite-guided HIMARS — short for High Mobility Artillery Rocket System — currently have a range of 80 kilometers. Repeated Ukrainian pleas have not been enough to authorize a 300-kilometer Himars. (The Biden administration has worried that the longer-range system could expand the war beyond Ukraine’s frontiers and lead to an escalation of hostilities.)

“It’s not just about the equipment that you have. It’s about how you employ that equipment, how you synchronize things together to create battlefield effects that then can create opportunities,” he said.

Putin’s Failure to Win in Kiev: When Russia Fails in the Invasion of Lyman-Novakov Macedonian Republic

Every country, every life, has heard the same story from Ukraine, the epicenter of a global conflict. Russia’s aggression has already taken a toll on the globe, lowering living standards and raising international tensions.

After weeks of fighting, Russia retreated from the riverbank that has served as a natural dividing line between the Russian and Ukrainian front lines.

TheUkrainian counteroffensive has seized key areas of Russian-controlled territory, and has only worsened Putin’s problems.

In an unusually candid article published Sunday, the prominent Russian newspaper Komsomolskaya Pravda reported that in the last few days of their occupation, Russian forces in Lyman had been plagued by desertion, poor planning and the delayed arrival of reserves.

Fast-forward two years, and reading that transatlantic dynamic post-Angela Merkel, and particularly post-Russian President Vladimir Putin’s failing invasion of Ukraine, has become one of the most pressing political questions vexing the Kremlin.

The timing was bad. Putin lost Lyman just as he was publicly declaring that the Donetsk region – in which Lyman sits – was now annexed by Russia.

The soldiers who were interviewed on Sunday said they were forced to retreat because of the fighting with NATO soldiers.

At the weekend, Moscow calling said that the movement of tanks and infantry fighting vehicles in a rural location was asking for trouble. He alleged that Russian units in the area lack information because commanders have failed to integrate intelligence-gathering into battlefield decisions.

The broadcast seemed intended to convince Russians who have doubts about the war or feel anger over plans to call up as many as 300,000 civilians that any hardships they bear are to be blamed on a West that is bent on destroying Russia at all costs.

The idea of Russia fighting a broader campaign was discussed in an interview with a man whose daughter was killed in a car bomb.

Mr. Dugin, like Mr. Putin, has accused Western countries of damaging the Nord Stream gas pipelines, which ruptured after underwater explosions last month in what both European and Russian leaders have called an act of sabotage.

He said that the West had accused them of blowing up the gas pipe. The war we’re fighting with the West is on a scale and extent that must be understood by us. We need to join the fight with a mortal enemy who will use any means, including exploding gas pipes.

But Russia will keep doing this because it works. Biden and other Western leaders assure Russia that it works by directly referring to the fear of escalation, which Russia wants to stoke.

The war in Ukraine is becoming an engine that fuels a far-right push for more influence; a symbiotic relationship between Putin and his fans in the West. Just as a political action committee linked to the former Trump aide Stephen Miller is arguing against spending on Ukraine, somehow linking it to poverty and crime in the US, like-minded figures in Europe are trying to promote their views by pointing to their country’s hardships as the cost of helping Ukraine. Despite flagging support among Republicans in Europe and the US, support for Ukraine is still strong.

The Kremlin reflected the disarray of its forces on the ground, where territory was rapidly changing hands, acknowledging that it did not yet know what new borders Russia would claim in southern Ukraine. “In terms of the borders, we’re going to continue to consult with the population of these regions,” Mr. Putin’s spokesman, Dmitri S. Peskov, told reporters on Monday.

The military conscription Mr. Putin ordered on Sept. 21 to bolster his battered forces has set off nationwide turmoil and protest, bringing the war home to many Russians who had felt untouched by it. Many men have been drafted who were supposed to be ineligible based on factors like age or disability.

Amini and David v. Goliath: The Palestinian Uprising in the London Night of Decays of Amini

A former CNN producer and correspondent named Frida Ghitis is now a world affairs columnist. She is a weekly opinion contributor to CNN, a contributing columnist to The Washington Post and a columnist for World Politics Review. The views expressed in this commentary are her own. You can look at more opinions on CNN.

On Sunday, almost by accident, two groups of demonstrators came together in London. One of them waved Ukrainian and Iranian flags. When they met, they cheered each other, and chanted, “All together we will win.”

The uprising in Iran and the war in Ukraine are not the same conflict. They are being fought at their core by individuals who decided to risk their lives to fight against dictatorships, and to push back against them.

These David v. Goliath battles show bravery that is almost unimaginable to the rest of us – and is inspiring equally courageous support in places like Afghanistan.

The death of 22-year-old Amini last month caused the spark in Iran. She died in the police custody of morality police who had arrested her for breaking rules requiring women to dress modestly.

In scenes of exhilarated defiance, Iranian women have danced around fires in the night, shedding the hijab – the headcover mandated by the regime – and tossing it into the flames.

Their peaceful uprising is not really about the hijab; it’s about cutting the shackles of oppression, which is why men have joined them in large numbers, even as the regime kills more and more protesters.

The Russian-Putin Revolution: The Rise and Fall of the Khmer Rouge Regime in the Middle East and the Horn of the Cold War

It was less than a decade ago that the Russian military entered Syria to save the Assad regime, which was overthrown by Iran.

Russian President Vladimir Putin had a plan to seize Ukraine quickly. Those plans dissolved from the first days of the Russians’ invasion with their failure to capture Kyiv.

The forces of his have planted mines in a large part of Kherson, which they have recently withdrawn from, copying the actions of the Khmer Rouge in Cambodia. Cambodian de-mining experts were called in to help with the daunting task facing Ukranian in 2022. At the same time, Russian armies have also left behind evidence of unspeakable atrocities and torture, also reminiscent of the Khmer Rouge.

The repressive regimes in Moscow and Tehran are now isolated, pariahs among much of the world, openly supported for the most part by a smattering of autocrats.

Iran already supplied Russia with hundreds of deadly drones, which were used in the attacks on Ukrainians.

Both of these regimes have a lot in common with one another in their willingness to project power abroad, and in their tactics of suppression of dissent.

Iran’s prisons are filled with regime critics and courageous journalists – including Niloofar Hamedi, first to report what happened to Mahsa Amini. journalism is a dangerous profession in Russia. So is criticizing Putin. After trying and failing to kill Navalny, Putin’s people created charges to keep him in a colony indefinitely.

For people in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, there’s more than passing interest in the admittedly low probability that the Iranian regime could fall. It would be transformative for their countries and their lives, heavily influenced by Tehran. After all, Iran’s constitution calls for spreading its Islamist revolution.

The Evil Emperor is Dead: A Case Study in a Campaign to Reclaim the Right Footprints of Russia on the Proximity of Ukraine

Appearing with extraordinary symbolism at the White House with President Joe Biden and before a joint meeting of Congress, Zelensky also bore sobering news. A long, bloody battle for freedom, democracy, and ultimately, the survival of a nation Russian President Vladimir Putin says has no right to exist – a fight for which it’s still not clear the free world has the stomach – is nowhere near over.

The abandoned armored vehicle was found by a battalion commander while he was in pursuit of retreating Russian soldiers. There were several items inside, such as a rifle, helmets, and belongings. The men were not present.

“They dropped everything: personal care, helmets,” said the commander, who uses the code name Swat. “I think it was a special unit, but they were panicking. It was raining very hard, the road was bad and they drop everything and move.”

After months of static fighting and holding the line, Ukrainian soldiers are rejoicing at their smashing of Russian lines in the northeast three weeks ago, and the recapturing of swaths of territory taken by Russians earlier this year. They have almost retaken the whole of Kharkiv Province, as well as territory in each of the four regions that President Vladimir V. Putin claims to have annexed for Russia.

The Russia-Afghan War: A Tale of Two Wars in Three Decades of Russo-Japanese Successes

Peter Bergen is CNN’s national security analyst, a vice president at New America and a professor at Arizona State University. View more opinion on CNN.

With his allies expressing concern and hundreds of thousands of citizens fleeing their homes, an increasingly isolated Putin has once again taken to making speeches offering a distorted view of history.

(Indeed, his revisionist account defines his rationale for the war in Ukraine, which he asserts has historically always been part of Russia – even though Ukraine declared its independence from the Soviet Union more than three decades ago.)

According to a recently published book, “Afghan Crucible,” the Soviets intended to install a puppet government in Afghanistan as soon as possible after invading the country in 1979.

During the war against the Soviets in Afghanistan, the US was initially reluctant to escalate its support for the Afghan resistance, fearing a wider conflict with the Soviet Union. It took until 1986 for the CIA to arm the Afghans with highly effective anti-aircraft Stinger missiles, which ended the Soviets’ total air superiority, eventually forcing them to withdraw from Afghanistan three years later.

Top US officials have publicly stated that they plan to give the Ukrainians as much support as they need to give them an upper hand at the negotiating table with Russia, should it come to that. But western military equipment is not infinite, and as stockpiles of warheads dwindle, the Ukrainians have made plain to the US that it could use the cluster munitions currently gathering dust in storage.

Putin is well aware that the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 was caused by the withdrawal of the Soviet forces from Afghanistan.

Looking further back into the history books, he must also know that the Russian loss in the Russo-Japanese war in 1905 weakened the Romanov monarchy. Czar Nicholas II lead the First World War and precipitated the Russian Revolution in 1917. The Romanov families were killed by the firing squad of the Bolsheviks.

A provocative statement, perhaps – Stremousov might perhaps be mindful of the fact that troublesome leaders of Russian-backed separatist entities have a habit of dying violently – but some of this criticism is not new. Just weeks after Putin launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, one of his key domestic enforcers, Chechen strongman Ramzan Kadyrov, urged the Russian military to expand its campaign, implying that Moscow’s approach had not been brutal enough.

The first and second dissolutions of the Russian empire occurred before the First World War ended, and after the fall of the Soviet Union.

The person is Petraeus. Putin has received a failing grade to date. To get the overall strategy and fundamental decisions correct is the first and most important task of a strategic leader. Over 1,200 western companies have left Russia in the last decade because of the war, and Putin has failed abysmally at that task, which has resulted in the Russian economy being hurt by a decade or more.

“First of all, we need to stop lying,” said Andrei Kartopolov, a former colonel-general in the Russian military and a member of the pro-Kremlin United Russia party. “We brought this up many times before … But apparently it is not getting through to senior figures.

He complained about the ministry of defense hiding the truth about Ukrainian cross-border strikes in Russian regions.

The assessment said that seeking a quick advance, the Russian Army was “wasting the fresh supply of mobilized personnel on marginal gains” by attacking before massing sufficient soldiers to ensure success. The attacks have been directed at several towns and villages, including Bakhmut and Avdiivka.

Valuyki is in the Belgorod region and is near the border with Ukraine. In order to hit Russian targets across the border, Kyiv has adopted a neither-confirm-nor-deny stance.

A counterexample to Russia’s defeat of Lapin in the Great Patriotic War and the use of Nuclear Weapons by the Prime Minister, Vladimir Putin

According to Boris, an inability to grasp the experience of war is a serious problem that needs to be fixed.

Kadyrov has been a lot less shy about naming Russian commanders since Russia’s retreat from the Ukrainian city of Lyman.

Kadyrov blamed Colonel-General Lapin, of the Central Military District, for the debacle, saying that he failed to provide for his troops and moved his headquarters away from his subordinates.

The Russian information space has deviated from the narratives favored by the Kremlin and the Russian Ministry of Defense that things are generally under control.

The Great Patriotic War, better known as the World War II, is one of the central features of Putinism. The use of punishment battalions, sent soldiers accused of cowardice or wavering against German positions as cannon fodder and the brutality of the tactics used by the Red Army to fight Hitler’s Wehrmacht are some of the methods used by Russia’s party of war.

Kadyrov, who was promoted by Putin to the rank of colonel general, has been one of the most prominent voices against the methods of the past. He said in another Telegram post that he’d give Russia extraordinary wartime power if he had his way.

“Yes, if it were my will, I would declare martial law throughout the country and use any weapon, because today we are at war with the whole NATO bloc,” Kadyrov said in a post that also seemed to echo Putin’s not-so-subtle threats that Russia might contemplate the use of nuclear weapons.

U.S. strikes on the Kerch Straight Bridge during the weekend of July 11th, 2018, in Odesa, Ukraine: retaliation by Ukraine and the Kremlin

Editor’s Note: Michael Bociurkiw (@WorldAffairsPro) is a global affairs analyst. He is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and a former spokesperson for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. He is a regular contributor to CNN Opinion. The opinions expressed in this commentary are his own. View more opinion at CNN.

Even amid irrepressible jubilation here in Ukraine in the aftermath of a massive explosion that hit the hugely strategic and symbolic Kerch Straight bridge over the weekend, fears of retaliation by the Kremlin were never far away.

Russian drones struck the southern city of Odesa on the weekend, causing 1.5 million people to go into darkness. President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine said the strikes by Russia, part of a nationwide assault on Ukraine’s energy grid, had left the region in a “very difficult” situation, warning that it would take days, not hours, to restore power to civilians.

The strikes occurred as people headed to work and while kids were being dropped off at schools. A friend in Kyiv texted me that she had just exited a bridge span 10 minutes before it was struck.

The area around my office remained quiet as of midday, with reports of missiles and drones being shot down. (Normally at this time of the day, nearby restaurants would be heaving with customers, and chatter of plans for upcoming weddings and parties).

Monday’s attacks also came just a few hours after Zaporizhzhia, a southeastern city close to the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, was hit by multiple strikes on apartment buildings, mostly while people slept. At least 17 people have been killed and many more injured.

“The enemy keeps resorting to its missile terror against the peaceful citizens of Ukraine,” Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces, said on Telegram, adding that the Russians had launched air and sea-based cruise missiles, as well as anti-aircraft guided missiles such as the S-300 at energy infrastructure facilities. He stated that 11 Iranian Shahed drones were shot down by the Ukrainian military.

In scenes reminiscent of the early days of the war when Russian forces neared the capital, some Kyiv media outlets temporarily moved their operations to underground bomb shelters. A group of people in a metro station take cover from a small group that is singing patriotic Ukrainian songs.

Indeed, millions of people in cities across Ukraine will be spending most of the day in bomb shelters, at the urging of officials, while businesses have been asked to shift work online as much as possible.

As many regions of Ukraine were starting to roar back to life, the attacks on them could cause another blow to business confidence.

It cannot be overstated that the bridge linking mainland Russia and Crimea is symbolism for Putin. It is thought that the attack was a blow to an aging autocrat whose ability to tolerate shame and humiliation can be seen as an added blow.

Hardwiring newly claimed territory with expensive, record-breaking infrastructure projects seems to be a penchant of dictators. Putin opened Europe’s longest bridge by driving a truck across it. That same year, one of the first things Chinese President Xi Jinping did after Beijing reclaimed Macau and Hong Kong was to connect the former Portuguese and British territories with the world’s longest sea crossing bridge. The $20 billion, 34-mile road bridge opened after about two years of delays.

The Ukrainian response to the December 11 explosion in Kyiv: a first step towards the 21st anniversary of Russian invasion of Crimea

The reaction among Ukrainians to the explosion was instantaneous: humorous memes lit up social media channels like a Christmas tree. Many shared their sense of jubilation via text messages.

The world would see the message. Putin does not intend to be humiliated. He will not admit defeat. He is prepared to wreak carnage on civilians in response to his battlefield reversals.

It was also an act of selfish desperation: facing increasing criticism at home, including on state-controlled television, has placed Putin on unusually thin ice.

Faced with growing setbacks, the Kremlin appointed a new overall commander of Russia’s invasion. But there is little sign that Gen. Sergey Surovikin can lead his forces back onto the front foot before the end of the year, given the pace and cost of the Ukrainian counter-offensives.

Since China and India currently have some leverage over Putin, Washington and other allies must use urgent phone diplomacy to urge them to resist the urge to use more deadly weapons.

Sanctions have not been enough to shake Russia’s determination to restore its empire at the cost of peaceful neighboring states. Instead of continuing to set up more targets for Russia to knock down, the US and Ukraine’s other Western backers should change the terms of the conflict. The international community must do more than simply tolerate Russia’s naked aggression and the savagery with which it is pursuing its war of colonial reconquest. More direct intervention needs to be done.

Furthermore, high tech defense systems are needed to protect Kyiv and crucial energy infrastructure around the country. With winter just around the corner, the need to protect heating systems is urgent.

Zelensky’s Security Assistance to Ukraine: A Challenge for the US, but a Testable Battlefield for the Cold War in Ukraine

Turkey and Gulf states which receive many Russian tourists need to be pressured to come on board in order for the west to further isolate Russia with trade and travel restrictions.

When Zelensky comes to the White House he is expected to be greeted by Biden who is expected to announce a new $1.8 billion in security assistance for Ukraine. The aid is expected to go up thanks to the system that is included in the package, according to a US official.

Petraeus said something. I think the Biden Administration has led NATO and the western world in providing huge quantities of weapons and other supplies in response to the Russian invasion. Guided the effort to impose economic, financial and personal sanctions on Russia. (And I offer this, noting that I am not a member of a political party and was very critical of the decision to withdraw from Afghanistan and the way the withdrawal was conducted.)

Asked whether the attacks of the past 24 hours would change the calculus on what the US would consider offering Ukraine, a senior administration official said they had no announcements to make on that front, but that the US will continue to help provide Ukraine with short- and long-range air defense systems, as it has in the past.

The UK defense secretary said the Challenger 2s should be provided to the Ukrainians this summer while the German minister said the Leopard 2s would reach Ukraine by March. And on January 26, Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh said that deliveries of the Abrams tanks will take “months.”

Russia launched a number of missiles at targets across Ukraine on Monday, according to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Kuleba said that the claims were nonsense, because Putin was desperate because of battlefield defeats and was trying to change the pace of war in his favor. Russia had planned a massive missile attack on Ukraine, according to a statement from the Ukrainian defense intelligence agency.

Less than a year into his term as president of Ukraine, Volodomyr Zelensky’s skills as negotiator were put to the test in his first face-to-face meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Kirby suggested Washington was in touch with the government in Kyiv almost every day and that Washington was looking favorably on Ukrainian requests. “We do the best we can in subsequent packages to meet those needs,” he told CNN’s Kate Bolduan.

“It’s clear that he’s feeling the pressure both at home and overseas, and how he reacts to that only he can say,” Kirby told CNN’s Kate Bolduan on “Erin Burnett OutFront.”

Last week, Biden delivered a stark warning about the dangers of Putin’s nuclear threats, invoking the prospect of “Armageddon.” But multiple US officials have said the comment was not based on any new intelligence about Putin’s intentions or changes in Russia’s nuclear posture.

The attack on Ukrain on Monday amounted to another terror to provoke panic, to scare the mother of three,” Olena Gnes told CNN

The attacks took away a sense of equilibrium that city dwellers have been able to restore after spending months fighting in subways as air raid shelters.

The targets on Monday also had little military value and were used to reflect Putin’s need to find new targets because of his inability to destroy enemy equipment on the battlefield.

The bombing of power stations appeared to be a hint of how much misery the Russian President could cause in the cold winter as his forces retreat in the face of Ukrainian troops.

Kirby was also unable to say whether Putin was definitively shifting his strategy from a losing battlefield war to a campaign to pummel civilian morale and inflict devastating damage on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, though he suggested it was a trend developing in recent days and had already been in the works.

It was something they had been planning for a while. Now that’s not to say that the explosion on the Crimea bridge might have accelerated some of their planning,” Kirby said.

According to the French President, the rush-hour attacks inUkraine could be the beginning of a new pivot in the conflict.

He was telling me where he was going to go in the winter. He is going to try to force the Ukrainian population to compromise, to give up territory, by going after this infrastructure,” Vindman said on CNN’s “New Day.”

Two strategic Russian air bases more than 300 miles from the Ukrainian border were attacked by drones on Monday. Russia blamed Ukraine, but it didn’t say who was responsible.

“So imagine if we had modern equipment, we probably could raise the number of those drones and missiles downed and not kill innocent civilians or wound and injure Ukrainians,” Zhovkva said.

It’s hard to imagine any other country being permitted by the world to wage the kind of campaign Russia has in Ukraine (and in Syria before it); still less with an overt agenda of exterminating the Ukrainian people.

The lesson of this horrible war is that everything Putin has done to fracture a nation he doesn’t believe has the right to exist has only strengthened and unified it.

Olena Gnes is a mother of three who is documenting the war on YouTube and told Anderson Cooper that she was angry at the return of fear and violence to the lives of Ukrainians.

“This is just another terror to provoke maybe panic, to scare you guys in other countries or to show to his own people that he is still a bloody tyrant, he is still powerful and look what fireworks we can arrange,” she said.

Russian presence in Kiev during the February 28 invasion: Moscow’s military machine is running low compared to the UK, analysts and state media are complaining about the Ukraine

Russia built up its army in Belarus before invading the country in February and used the country as a base for its initial assault on the Ukrainian capital. Moscow has several hundred troops in the country, from which it launches missiles and bombing raids. They are expected to increase sharply.

Mr. Lukashenko told military and security officials in the capital of his country that it will be more than a thousand troops.

In a statement reported by Belta, Mr. Lukashenko said that work had started on forming a “joint regional group of troops” to fight NATO and Ukraine.

Some assistance may be on the way. An announcement by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko that Belarus and Russia will “deploy a joint regional group of troops” raised fears of deepened military cooperation between the close allies and that Belarusian troops could formally join Russia in its invasion. Observers say that some level of involvement could be in store for Belarus after it complained of threats from the Ukrainians.

Heavily reliant on Moscow for everything from money and fuel to security assistance, Mr. Lukashenko has been in power for 28 years and needs the assistance a lot to survive.

MOSCOW — For months, Russia’s state media has insisted that the country was hitting only military targets in Ukraine, leaving out the suffering that the invasion has brought to millions of civilians.

On Monday, state television not only reported on the suffering, but also flaunted it. There was a long-range forecast of months of freezing temperatures and empty store shelves, as well as a video showing smoke and carnage in central Kyiv.

The head of the UK’s largest spy agency said that Moscow was running low on military weapons and was struggling to keep a lid on desperation at many levels inside Russian society.

Because of the declaration for mobilize, it is running short of troops. I think the answer is pretty clear. Russia and Russia’s commanders are worried about the state of their military machine,” Fleming said Tuesday.

Russia launched a wave of deadly strikes on Ukrainian cities on Monday, killing at least 19 people and damaging critical infrastructure.

Monday’s attacks, and further strikes throughout the week, were evidence of Russian President Vladimir Putin lashing out after a series of setbacks in the war that have put him under pressure domestically.

“Any talk of nuclear weapons is very dangerous, and we need to be very careful about how we’re discussing that,” Fleming said when asked about Putin.

“I would hope that we would see indicators if they started to go down that path. But let’s be really clear about that, if they are considering that, that would be a catastrophe in the way that many people have talked about,” he added.

In a speech on Tuesday, Fleming will say Russians are counting the costs of the invasion of Ukraine and Putin “has misjudged the situation.”

“With little effective internal challenge, his decision-making has proved flawed. It’s a high stakes strategy that is leading to strategic errors in judgement. Fleming will say that their gains are being reversed during the annual security lecture in London.

They know that their access to newer technologies and external influences will be restricted. He will say that they’re getting the true cost of his war of choice.

Russian Air Defense Systems as an Offensive Weapon during the Cold War: Predictions for the Ukrainian Continuum Air Defense System and Their Transition to Strategic Air Defense

As Ukraine races to shore up its missile defenses in the wake of the assault, the math for Moscow is simple: A percentage of projectiles are bound to get through.

The Pentagon’s view at the time was that of its weapons stocks, Russia was “running the lowest on cruise missiles, particularly air-launched cruise missiles,” but that Moscow still had more than 50% of its pre-war inventory.

The Russian inventories are in danger of being destroyed and whether they will resort to older, less accurate but equally powerful missiles is unknown.

The Russians have been making the air defense missile S-300 888-282-0465 888-282-0465 888-282-0465 888-282-0465 as an offensive weapon. These have wrought devastation in Zaporizhzhia and Mykolaiv, among other places, and their speed makes them difficult to intercept. But they are hardly accurate.

He stated that this was the first time that Russia had targeted energy infrastructure since the beginning of the war.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that more systems would be needed in order to stop missile attacks. The air defense systems provided by the NATO Allies are making a difference because many of the incoming missiles were shot down by the Ukrainian air defense systems. “But of course, as long as not all of them are shot down, of course there is a need for more.”

The “Yars” intercontinental missile had been installed into a silo in the Kaluga region by the Kozelsky missile formation, which Russia’s defense ministry shared with the public.

Last month, the US deputy undersecretary of defense for policy, Sasha Baker, said the US had seen “some evidence already” that the Iranian drones “have already experienced numerous failures.”

At Wednesday’s meeting, Ukraine had a wish-list that included missiles and a transition to Western-origin air defense system.

The system is widely considered one of the most capable long-range weapons to defend airspace against incoming ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as some aircraft. Because of its long-range capability, it’s possible to shoot down Russian missiles and aircraft out of reach of the intended targets.

Western systems are starting to show up in other places. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said Tuesday that a “new era of air defense has begun” with the arrival of the first IRIS-T from Germany, and two units of the US National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAM) expected soon.

“This is only the beginning. The first item on the agenda is strengthening the air defense of the Ukrainians, said Reznikov as he met with the donors at the meeting. Feeling optimistic.”

But these are hardly off-the-shelf-items. The IRIS-T had to be manufactured in Ukranian. Western governments have limited inventories of such systems. And Ukraine is a very large country under missile attack from three directions.

The Russian War with Ukraine: The Cold War could be Worsening for Russia, and for Russia to be Frozen in December (and before Winter)

The senior military commander of the country thanked Poland on Tuesday, for training an air defense battalion that had destroyed nine Shaheeds.

He said Poland was helping with the destruction of drones. There were reports last month that the Polish government had purchased advanced Israeli equipment, and was transferring it to Ukraine.

The war is moving towards an unpredictable phase not for the first time. A senior consulting fellow at Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia programme said that the war may be the third, fourth, or fifth different war they have been observing.

Though wary of making precise predictions, American and Ukrainian officials say the fighting is likely to continue for months more despite the fact that the war has favored Ukraine recently. President Vladimir V. Putin may be willing to escalate the fight in December if it means keeping Europe united this winter as energy prices soar.

“What seemed a distant prospect for anything that could be convincingly described as a Ukraine victory is now very much more plausible,” Giles said. “The response from Russia is likely to escalate further.”

Oleksii Hromov, a senior Ukrainian military official, said last week that Kyiv’s forces have recaptured some 120 settlements since late September as they advance in the Kharkiv, Donetsk and Kherson regions. On Wednesday, Ukraine said it had liberated more five settlements in its slow but steady push in Kherson.

There is a chance that the Russian-occupied city of Kherson will be attacked. The officials have been preparing for the possibility of a Ukrainian counteroffensive.

These counter-offensives have shifted the momentum of the war and disproved a suggestion, built up in the West and in Russia during the summer, that while Ukraine could stoutly defend territory, it lacked the ability to seize ground.

“The Russians are playing for the whistle – (hoping to) avoid a collapse in their frontline before the winter sets in,” Samir Puri, senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies and the author of “Russia’s Road to War with Ukraine,” told CNN.

The Russians would be a huge success if they can get to christmas with the frontline looking roughly as it is.

The Institute for the Study of War says that Russian forces will likely defend the city of Starobilsk and the surrounding Luhansk region due to the fact that Ukrainian troops crossed the Oskil River in September.

If Ukraine had a blow in Donbas, it would send a powerful signal to the rest of Europe that it is serious about regaining control of the area.

“There are so many reasons why there is an incentive for Ukraine to get things done quickly,” Giles said. The resilience of both Ukraine and its Western backers is always going to be tested by the winter energy crisis in Europe.

At their summit in March last year, NATO leaders agreed to equip, arm and train Ukraine to NATO standards. That would not make it a member, but the message was clear to Moscow: in the future, it would look and fight like it did in NATO.

Much of the country’s electricity supply was disrupted by Russian missiles on Tuesday and Monday, but Ukrenergo says it has fixed the problem. The Ukrainian Prime Minister has asked people to reduce their energy usage during peak hours, so that damaged equipment can be fixed.

The challenge of reopening a northern front for Russia after the invasion of Crimea during the Kremlin-Monte Carlo crisis

That conclusion was also reached by the ISW, which said in its daily update on the conflict Monday that the strikes “wasted some of Russia’s dwindling precision weapons against civilian targets, as opposed to militarily significant targets.”

Since Russia’s invasion ofUkraine, one of the biggest surprises has been the willingness of Western countries to hand over more sophisticated military equipment to the Ukrainians, as the Europeans’ stock cupboards have been left looking rather bare.

Petraeus was the one. It could if Putin mobilized all of Russia successfully. However, to date, the mobilizings have been partial, as Putin fears how the country will respond to a total mobilize. In fact, reportedly, more Russian men left the country than reported to the mobilization stations in response to the latest partial call-up of reserves.

“The reopening of a northern front would be another new challenge for Ukraine,” Giles said. It would provide Russia a new route into the Kharkiv oblast (region), which has been recaptured by Ukraine, should Putin prioritize an effort to reclaim that territory, he said.

Now Zelensky will hope for more supplies in the short-term as he seeks to drive home those gains. The leader has sought to highlight Ukraine’s success in intercepting Russian missiles, saying more than half of the missiles and drones launched at Ukraine in a second wave of strikes on Tuesday were brought down.

Ahead of a NATO defense ministers meeting inBrussels, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that Ukraine needed more systems to halt missile attacks.

Sergey Surovikin, the commander of the Russian forces in Syria, and his work with the Wagner group for the Latakia air base

Colonel General Sergey Surovikin, then-commander of the Russian forces in Syria, speaks at a briefing in the Russian Defense Ministry in Moscow, on June 9, 2017.

He was Commander in Chief of the Russian Aerospace Force during the time when they caused widespread destruction in rebel-held areas in Syria.

He said the person was close to the Putin regime and never had political ambitions, so always executed a plan that the government wanted.

Russian President Putin met with personnel who took part in operations in Syria at the Kremlin.

Irisov then began what he hoped would be the start of a career as an international journalist, as a military reporter with Russian state news agency TASS. He believed that it was the only main information agency that tried to cover news in a biased manner, and with a chance of freedom of speech.

“Everything changed” on February 24, 2022, when Putin’s invasion of Ukraine began and TASS received orders from the FSB security service and defense ministry “that everyone will be prosecuted if they don’t execute the propaganda scheme,” Irisov said.

He told CNN he knew nothing could justify the war, as his family hid in bomb shelters. He knew from his military contacts that there were many casualties in the first few days of the war.

While serving at Latakia air base in Syria in 2019 and 2020, the 31-year-old says he worked on aviation safety and air traffic control, coordinating flights with Damascus’ civilian airlines. He spoke to a lot of high-ranking officers under him while he was on some missions.

The direct and straight general was disliked by many at headquarters because he tried to implement his infantry experience into the air force.

The Wagner group is a private military company that has operated in Syria.

In 2004, according to Russian media accounts and at least two think tanks, he berated a subordinate so severely that the subordinate took his own life.

The author of the book said that during the attempted coup against Gorbachev in August 1991, three protesters were killed by soldiers under his command and he spent at least six months in prison.

In a 2020 report, Human Rights Watch named him as “someone who may bear ​command responsibility” for the dozens of air and ground attacks on civilian objects and infrastructure in violation of the laws of war​” during the 2019-2020 Idlib offensive in Syria. ​The attacks killed at least 1,600 ​civilians and forced the displacement of an estimated 1.4 million people, according to HRW​​, which cites UN figures.

Vladimir Putin, commander of the Ukrainian forces in Ukraine, and the failure of Russian forces in Syria during the 2017 Ukrainian War of Independence, a joint speech with Putin and Medvedev

Vladimir Putin (left) toasts with then-Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev next to Sergey Surovikin after a ceremony to bestow state awards on military personnel who fought in Syria, on December 28, 2017.

The European Union imposed sanctions on him in February for his actions and policies that undermined and threatened the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukranian as well as the stability or security of that country.

But Clark, from the ISW, suggests the general’s promotion is “more of a framing thing to inject new blood into the Russian command system” and “put on this tough nationalist face.”

His appointment “got widespread praise from various Russian military bloggers as well as Yevgeny (Prigozhin), who’s the financier of the Wagner Group,” Clark said.

He thinks the current situation is a reflection of what happened in April when Alexander Dvornikov was appointed overall commander of the operations in Ukraine.

“Similarly, he before then was a commander of one of the groupings of Russian forces and had sort of a master reputation in Syria much like Surovikin for brutality, earning this sort of name of the ‘butcher of Aleppo,’” Clark said.

If Putin decides that he is also not up to the task, there isn’t a good Kremlin option. There aren’t many other senior Russian officers and it’s just going to lead to a further degradation of the Russian war effort.”

They join an army already degraded in quality and capability. Over the course of the war, the composition of the military force inUkraine has changed due to the number of wounded or killed military personnel before and during the war. The Russian military leadership is not usually aware of how the force will react when faced with cold combat conditions or rumors of Ukrainian assaults. Recent experience suggests these troops might abandon their positions and equipment in panic, as demoralized forces did in the Kharkiv region in September.

“Even if President (Volodymyr) Zelenskyy reached some conclusion that maybe we should, to stop the punishment, we should negotiate. I don’t think he can do that anymore because of the conviction of the Ukrainian people.”

What do we learn from a World War II: Putin’s enemies, his enemies, and the future of the Cold War — a perspective from Petereus

Petraeus spoke at an annual conference in Sea Island, Ga., run by The Cipher Brief, which brings together members of the national security community — current and former — to stand back and look at the big picture on global security.

The Chief of Staff to President Zelenskyy told the conference that the conflict needs to end with a victory on the battlefield.

The Intelligence Project at Harvard’s Kennedy School is led by a former CIA officer who said that the Russian leader was not looking for a way out of the conflict. In fact, he says, just the opposite. Putin’s memory is that it escalates when he runs into an obstacle. “There’s a lot of tricks he can still pull out to try to undermine morale in Ukraine and in the West.”

There are 300,000 more troops being called up by Putin and he annexed some of the Ukrainian land in the east and south.

“That is a metaphor for a bridge burning,” said Alperovitch. “What this means is that this war is likely to continue for many, many months, potentially many years, as long as he’s in power and as long as he has the resources to continue fighting.”

The war was not thought to be close to an end at the Georgia conference. Paul, the former CIA official, said that most wars end with some type of negotiated solution, but he doesn’t see any prospects of talks in the near term.

This war began with a Russian invasion in 2014, he noted, and is now as intense as it’s ever been. Greg Myre is an NPR journalist. You can followgregmyre1.

Moscow declares martial law and is negotiating an end to the Ukrainian war with the U.S. on social media – comment on a tweet by Alexander Sobyanin

The mayor of Moscow, Sergey Sobyanin, seemed to be taking pains to offer reassurances. Mr. Sobyanin wrote on his Telegram channel that no measures have been introduced to reduce the city’s normal rhythm.

Despite the new powers granted them, the regional governors said they would not impose entry and exit restrictions.

It is the first time in almost 70 years that Moscow has declared martial law, and it will send a message to many Russians.

“People are worried that they will soon close the borders, and the siloviki” — the strong men close to Mr. Putin in the Kremlin — “will do what they want,” Ms. Stanovaya said.

Russia supplies large quantities of weapons and weaponry to troops they will supply and is within range of enemy weaponry. Even within Russian territory that western powers have declared off-limits to Ukrainian strikes, large depots need to be broken up and scattered and located far behind enemy lines, according to standard military practice.

A young woman is on a park bench by a tram stop talking about the war with her two friends. Makarova explains how much of their safety depends on U.S. support.

He says the top issues trending on his social media channels are the upcoming U.S. elections and billionaire Elon Musk’s controversial comments about negotiating an end to the war.

Ukrainian Foreign Policy During the Trump Era: Why the U.S.’s Best Policy is Preferable for Ukraine’s Midterm Elections

The speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy, is poised to become speaker if Republicans take control of the house after next month’s elections. They just won’t do it.”

“I think people are gonna be sitting in a recession and they’re not going to write a blank check to Ukraine,” he told Punchbowl News in an interview published Tuesday.

Lauren Boebert of Colorado and Matt Gaetz of Florida weren’t happy when Zelensky was introduced.

A line of Ukrainian politicians, activists — even soldiers — have been traveling to Washington in advance of the midterms to keep up relations and lobby for more aid.

Yevheniia Kravchuk is a member of parliament with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s Servant of the People party. She has traveled to Washington to meet with adminstration and congressional leaders multiple times since the beginning of the war.

And it’s not all on the fringes. Rep. Kevin McCarthy, the Republican leader who could become speaker of the House after next week’s US elections, suggested the GOP might choose to reduce aid to Ukraine. The Democrats have withdrawn a letter calling for negotiations. Evelyn Farkas, a former Pentagon official, said they are bringing a smile to Putin’s face.

A Pew Research Center poll last month found that 32% of Republican and Republican-leaning independents believe the United States is providing too much support for Ukraine in the war. That’s up from 9% in March.

The percentage of Americans who were extremely or very concerned about the outcome of the battle for Donbass was 42% in September, a decrease from 45% in May.

The politics of aid to Ukraine is not easy to talk about in Kyiv where government officials say avoiding partisan politics in the U.S is a key pillar of Ukrainian foreign policy. Petro Burkovskiy, a senior fellow at the Democratic Initiatives Foundation, spent several years in the Ukrainian government and learned that lesson during the Trump years.

Zelenskyy was close to agreeing to a Trump demand to announce an investigation into the family of then-candidate Joe Biden, but instead he was sucked into Trump’s first impeachment.

Many Ukrainians don’t comprehend U.S. politics, according to the director of international studies at Odesa Mechnikov University.

“When there is someone, let’s say a member of House, and he or she speaks about ‘why are we spending money and Ukraine is corrupt, is not winning,’ and people in Ukraine hear this — it means, like, ‘Oh my God, that’s a new American position that’s going to prevail,'” he says.

The balance of power in Washington means that a few Republicans can’t change the direction of U.S. support for the war, he believes. Ukranian problems are much bigger than in the U.S.

American officials say there is little chance of a widespread collapse in Russian forces that would allow Ukraine to take another huge swath of territory, similar to what it claimed last month. If Russian units broke in the face of Ukrainian pressure, the city of Kherson could easily be taken by the Ukrainian army.

The War Between Ukraine and the U.S.: Tim Vance’s Remark Revisited by CNN, The Daily Beast and SiriusXM Radio

Dean Obeidallah is a former attorney who currently writes for The Daily Beast and hosts a daily program on SiriusXM radio. Follow him @DeanObeidallah. The opinions he expresses in this commentary are his own. CNN has more opinion on it.

The GOP Senate candidate in Ohio changed his mind and said he wanted the Ukrainians to be successful. But as The Washington Post detailed on Sunday, Vance’s original remark is causing Ukrainian Americans who are lifelong Republicans to support his Democratic opponent, Tim Ryan, in that too-close-to-call Senate race.

In fact, around the same time that Russia was destroying Ukrainian power plants, McCarthy was suggesting that a GOP-led Congress might no longer provide robust funding to help Ukraine fight back against Putin’s illegal war — a position that Republican Rep. Liz Cheney called a “dangerous” move motivated by political self-interest.

The idea that Kevin McCarthy would become leader of the pro-Putin wing of my party is stunning. Cheney was on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

“He knows better, but the fact that he’s willing to go down the path of suggesting that America will no longer stand for freedom, I think, tells you he’s willing to sacrifice everything for his own political gain.”

Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene recently stated that if the Republicans are elected to the House in next month’s elections, she would expect Speaker McCarthy to give her a lot of power and a lot of latitude.

Conservative Fox News stars, including Laura Ingraham and especially Tucker Carlson, have been laying the groundwork with members of the Republican base, readying them for the possibility of an end to US assistance for Ukraine.

Carlson was the one who claimed on his show in March of last year that he was trying to bring about a conflict between neighboring countries and that he was looking for Russia. For example, Carlson falsely claimed Ukraine was “not a democracy” and called Ukrainian leader Zelensky a “puppet of the Biden administration.”

Last week, the host of the radio program derided the former Vice President of the United States for calling the United States the “Switzerland of Democracy” and suggested our huge military is not enough to help other countries. Jim Banks of Indiana, who is also a Republican, said that the United States can not put America first by giving aid to countries around the world.

As Biden suggested, McCarthy and some of his fellow Republicans may or may not get it. But there’s one person who fully gets it: Vladmir Putin. If the Republicans win control of the House, there will be a lot of celebration.

Conflict: The Evolution of War: From 1945 to Ukraine, by Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz at a Conference Call

Petraeus has spent decades studying warfare and practicing its application. The US and coalition commander of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, he later served as director of the CIA. He obtained his PhD from Princeton with a thesis on the Vietnam war and the lessons it taught the American military. The upcoming book, titled, “Conflict: The Evolution of warfare from 1945 to Ukraine,” is co-authored by Petraeus and Andrew Roberts.

First, he’s seeking to distract his nation from the blindingly obvious, namely that he is losing badly on the battlefield and utterly failing to achieve even the vastly scaled back objectives of his invasion.

There are a number of variables that determine the ability to keep going, including the availability of critical and affordable energy supplies for the coming winter and popular will across a broad range of nations with often conflicting priorities.

In the early hours of Friday in Brussels, European Union powers agreed a roadmap to control energy prices that have been surging on the heels of embargoes on Russian imports and the Kremlin cutting natural gas supplies at a whim.

The Dutch Title Transfer Facility, the benchmark European gas market, has an emergency cap, as well as permission from the EU for gas companies to create a giant gas market in Europe.

While French President Emmanuel Macron waxed euphoric leaving the summit, which he described as having “maintained European unity,” he conceded that there was only a “clear mandate” for the European Commission to start working on a gas cap mechanism.

Germany, the biggest economy in Europe, is skeptical of price caps. Now energy ministers have to work out details of caps with Germany, which is worried that they would encourage higher consumption.

These divisions are all part of Putin’s fondest dream. It is plausible that Manifold forces in Europe could be central to achieving success from the Kremlin’s viewpoint.

Germany and France are already at loggerheads on many of these issues. Though in an effort to reach some accommodation, Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have scheduled a conference call for Wednesday.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/25/opinions/putin-prolonge-war-ukraine-winter-andelman/index.html

Italy’s first woman prime minister reopened after a long war with Ukraine: The role of Putin and the West in the epoch of crisis

And now a new government has taken power in Italy. Giorgia Meloni was sworn in Saturday as Italy’s first woman prime minister and has attempted to brush aside the post-fascist aura of her party. One of her far-right partners has a great deal of admiration for Putin.

In an audio clip of a secretly recorded interview, Berlusconi states that he had returned Putin’s gesture with bottles of Lambrusco wine.

Matteo Salvini was named a deputy prime minister of Italy on Saturday, and he said during the campaign that he didn’t want the sanctions on Russia to harm those who impose them more than those hit by them.

At the same time, Poland and Hungary, longtime ultra-right-wing soulmates united against liberal policies of the EU that seemed calculated to reduce their influence, have now disagreed over Ukraine. Poland was upset by the comments of Hungary’s populist leader Viktor Orban.

On Monday, the Congressional progressive caucus called on Biden to speak to Russia about ending the conflict in order to stop Russia’s missiles and drones from hitting the interior.

Hours later, caucus chair Mia Jacob, facing a firestorm of criticism, emailed reporters with a statement “clarifying” their remarks in support of Ukraine. Secretary of State Antony Blinken also called his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba to renew America’s support.

In short, there is every incentive for Putin to prolong the conflict as long as possible to allow many of these forces in the West to kick in. A long, cold winter in Europe, persistently high inflation and high interest rates, could potentially force leaders to dial back their financial and military support.

The West continues to try and reduce the amount of energy profits for Russian companies by limiting oil imports into the country and capping payments. There are signs that the effort is cutting into profits.

Russian production of hypersonic missiles has all but ceased “due to the lack of necessary semi-conductors,” said the report. Aircraft are being cannibalized for spare parts, plants producing anti-aircraft systems have shut down, and “Russia has reverted to Soviet-era defense stocks” for replenishment. The soviet era ended 30 years ago.

Putin has also tried, though he has been stymied at most turns, to establish black market networks abroad to source what he needs to fuel his war machine – much as Kim Jong-un has done in North Korea. The United States uncovered and recently sanctioned vast networks of shadow companies and individuals centered in hubs from Taiwan to Armenia to Switzerland to source high-tech goods for Russia’s collapsing military-industrial complex.

The Justice Department also announced charges against individuals and companies seeking to smuggle high-tech equipment into Russia in violation of sanctions.

Wars of aggression in the West and in the East: Gubarev’s tale of a puppet leader of the Russian-controlled Ukraine

Even though there are hardliners still like the puppet leader of Russian-controlled eastern Ukraine, Gubarev, who wanted to convince Ukrainians that he was not coming to kill them. If you don’t want to be convinced, we’ll kill you. We will kill as many of you as we can, or we will kill all of you.

It’s not a category error to apply the special case of negotiation, with few parameters and a narrow range of outcomes, to a very fluid and much wider rivalry. The danger of a Russian nuclear explosion is something that should be carefully studied, but there is no special category of actions that the West or Ukraine could take that would cause it. Russia only has a range of options and views on their relative risks and benefits at any given time. The West should continually aim, through its diplomacy, to shape these perceptions so that Russia chooses the options that the West prefers.

The historian Yuval Noah Harari has argued that no less than the direction of human history is at stake, because a victory by Russia would reopen the door to wars of aggression, to invasions of one country by another, something that since the Second World War most nations had come to reject as categorically unacceptable.

There are repercussions to what happens far from the battlefields. The US accused the Saudis of helping Russia fund the war because they increased oil revenues when they decided to slash production. (An accusation the Saudis deny).

The Battle of Sevastopol: Moscow’s War with Ukraine in the Light of Moscow and the Ukraine’s Militia Forces

Israel is hesitant to remove its defensive systems due to the fact that it might need them for its own defense. Hezbollah in the north holds a massive arsenal of missiles, and Hamas in the south has its own rockets.

Moscow suspended the reopening of the maritime corridors after the Russian navy ships were bombed at the port of Sevastopol, which is located in the Crimean peninsula. After Putin said that there would be a surge in wheat prices on global commodity markets. Those prices partly determine how much people pay for bread in Africa and across the planet.

In fact, the war in Ukraine is already affecting everyone, everywhere. The conflict has also sent fuel prices higher, contributing to a global explosion of inflation.

Higher prices not only affect family budgets and individual lives. They pack a political punch when they’re in great shape. Since the war, inflation has placed political leaders on the defensive all over the world.

According to the UK defense ministry, an increase in Russian casualties is likely due to a variety of factors including lack of trained personnel, coordination and resources across the front.

The statement said that Russians are staging up to 80 assaults per day and spoke about a conversation with an American general.

The increase in infantry in the east of the country has not resulted in new gains for Russia, according to an assessment from the Institute for the Study of War.

The institute stated that Russian forces would have had more success if they had waited until enough personnel arrived to overwhelm the Ukrainian defense.

In the south, where Ukrainian forces are moving toward the city of Kherson, the Ukrainian military reported that its army had fired 160 times at Russian positions over the course of the past 24 hours.

With Russian andUkrainian forces preparing for a battle in Kherson and conflicting signals over what will happen, the remaining residents of the city have been stocking up on food and fuel.

And Ukraine will be watching America’s midterm election results this week, especially after some Republicans warned that the party could limit funding for Ukraine if it wins control of the House of Representatives, as forecast.

Observing the State of Ukraine with the CNN Podcast. Russian Militia Attacks in the Nov. 2 U.N.-Berger Abundance

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will meet with the Prime Minister of Sweden. Before it can join NATO, Sweden has to meet certain conditions.

The United Nations General Assembly on Wednesday is scheduled to discuss an International Atomic Energy Agency report, in which Ukraine is expected to be on the agenda.

Russia rejoined a U.N.-brokered deal to safely export grain and other agricultural goods from Ukraine, on Nov. 2. Moscow had suspended its part in the deal a few days prior after saying Ukraine had launched a drone attack on its Black Sea ships.

The new, $1.8 billion package Biden will unveil includes a Patriot surface-to-air missile system, which has been a longstanding request of Ukraine’s to fend of Russian air attacks. CNN was first to report the US was expected to send the Patriot systems to Ukraine.

You can read past recaps here. For context and more in-depth stories, you can find more of NPR’s coverage here. Listen to and subscribe to the State of Ukrainepodcast for updates throughout the day.

NATO and Polish leaders are speculating that a Ukrainian anti-aircraft rocket may have shot down an incoming Russian missile and caused it to land in Poland. The president insisted the missile was not Ukrainian.

One thing is crystal clear, no matter the circumstances of the missile. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that “Russia bears ultimate responsibility as it continues its illegal war against Ukraine.”

But beyond these most recent missile attacks lies a laundry list of horrors Putin has launched that only seems to have driven his nation further from the pack of civilized powers that he once sought so desperately to join.

That said, a growing number of Russian soldiers have rebelled at what they have been asked to do and refused to fight. The Defense Ministry thinks Russian troops may shoot retreating or deserting soldiers.

The hotline and Telegram channel was created as a Ukrainian military project called “I want to live,” which is designed to help Russian soldiers who are willing to defect.

The Russian president said it was a way to clean the Russian society of traitors and spies. Russian officials have suggested stripping those who left the country of their passports. Russia can thrive without some of its best and brightest.

One leading Russian journalist, Mikhail Zygar, who has settled in Berlin after fleeing in March, told me last week that while he hoped this is not the case, he is prepared to accept the reality – like many of his countrymen, he may never be able to return to his homeland, to which he remains deeply attached.

The case for more ammunition for the future combat air system of Ukraine: a human rights watchdog report on the progress of the FACS project

Rumbling in the background is the West’s attempt to diversify away from Russian oil and natural gas in an effort to deprive the country of material resources to pursue this war. Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission told the G20 that they had learned that dependency was an unsustainable one.

Moreover, Putin’s dream that this conflict, along with the enormous burden it has proven to be on Western countries, would only drive further wedges into the Western alliance are proving unfulfilled. The french and german project for a next- generation jet fighter at the center of the Future Combat Air System started to move forward after word began circulating on Monday.

For Ukraine, cluster munitions could address two major issues: the need for more ammunition for the artillery and rocket systems the US and others have provided, and a way of closing Russia’s numerical superiority in artillery.

CNN has learned that Biden administration officials have been fielding this request for months but have not rejected it completely.

Cluster munitions are imprecise by design, and scatter “bomblets” across large areas that can fail to explode on impact and can pose a long-term risk to anyone who encounters them, similar to landmines. They also create “nasty, bloody fragmentation” to anyone hit by them because of the dozens of submunitions that detonate at once across a large area, Mark Hiznay, a weapons expert and the associate arms director for Human Rights Watch, previously told CNN.

If there is a risk of low inventories, the Biden administration has not taken the option off the table. There are statutory restrictions on the US’s ability to transfer cluster munitions that have not yet been taken into account.

It’s questionable if they will pose a risk to civilians, because of the restrictions that apply to munitions with a greater than one percent unexploded ordnance rate. The administration has said that it is unlikely that President Joe Biden will be able to overrule the restriction.

“The ability of Ukraine to make gains in current and upcoming phases of conflict is in no way dependent on or linked to their procuring said munitions,” a congressional aide told CNN.

CNN spoke to the Defense Ministry, who said that it would not comment on reports regarding requests for specific weapons systems or other weapons until there was an agreement with the supplier.

The US replaced the dual-purpose improved conventional munitions, known as DPICMs, with the M30A1 alternate warhead. The M30A1 contains 180,000 small steel fragments, which do not cause any unexploded munitions on the ground. Ukrainian officials, however, say that the DPICMs the US now has in storage could help the Ukrainian military enormously on the battlefield – more so than the M30A1.

Putin’s Special Military Operation in Ukraine: Seizing New Territory and Desensitizing the War with Western Forces, Human Rights and Humanitarian Aid

KYIV, Ukraine — Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged Wednesday that his “special military operation” in Ukraine is taking longer than expected but said it has succeeded in seizing new territory and added that his country’s nuclear weapons are deterring escalation of the conflict.

It could take a long time to end the war that began in February and has left millions homeless and tens of thousands wounded. Despite its length, he showed no signs of letting up, vowing to “consistently fight for our interests” and to “protect ourselves using all means available.” He reiterated his claim that he had no choice but to send in troops, saying that for years, the West responded to Russia’s security demands with “only spit in the face.”

The Sea of Azov became Russia’s internal sea, as stated by Putin in a televised meeting with members of his Human Rights Council. In one of his frequent historic references to a Russian leader he admires, he added that “Peter the Great fought to get access” to that body of water.

After failing to take the city of Kyiv, Russia took broad swaths of southern Ukraine and captured the key Sea of Azov port of Mariupol in May. In September, Putin illegally annexed four Ukrainian regions even though his forces didn’t completely control them: Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in the south, and Donetsk and Luhansk in the east. In 2014, he had illegally annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula.

In response to an increasing influx of advanced Western weapons, economic, political and humanitarian aid to Kyiv and what he saw as Western leaders’ inflammatory statements, Putin has periodically hinted at his potential use of nuclear weapons. Putin refused to make a pledge that Russia wouldn’t be the first to use such weapons. He said Russia would not be able to use nuclear weapons at all if it agreed not to use them first and then came under a nuclear strike.

“If it isn’t used first, it won’t be used again, and the chance of using it in the event of a nuclear strike on our territory will be less than if it is,” he said.

“We haven’t gone mad. We are fully aware of what nuclear weapons are,” Putin said. He said that they are more advanced and state-of-the-art than anything other nuclear power has.

In his televised remarks, the Russian leader didn’t address Russia’s battlefield setbacks or its attempts to cement control over the seized regions but acknowledged problems with supplies, treatment of wounded soldiers and limited desertions.

The governor posted pictures of new concrete anti-tank barriers, known as “dragon’s teeth,” in open fields. On Tuesday, the governor had said a fire broke out at an airport in the region after a drone strike. In neighboring Belgorod, workers were expanding anti-tank barriers and officials were organizing “self-defense units.” Belgorod has seen numerous fires and explosions, apparently from cross-border attacks, and its governor reported Wednesday that Russia’s air defenses have shot down incoming rockets.

Moscow responded with strikes by artillery, multiple rocket launchers, missiles, tanks and mortars at residential buildings and civilian infrastructure, worsening damage to the power grid. TheUkrainian power utility Ukrenergo said that its temperatures in eastern areas where it was repairing had dropped as low as minus 17 degrees Celsius.

WASHINGTON — The United States is poised to approve sending its most advanced ground-based air defense system to Ukraine, responding to the country’s urgent request to help defend against an onslaught of Russian missile and drone attacks, two U.S. officials said on Tuesday.

Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III could approve a directive as early as this week to transfer one Patriot battery already overseas to Ukraine, the officials said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. Final approval could be given to President Biden.

The US has provided one of the most advanced weapons to the Ukrainians with the transfer of a Patriot battery.

Many questions remain about the potential transfer, which was reported earlier by CNN, including how long it would take to train Ukrainian soldiers on the system, presumably in Germany, and where the Patriots would be deployed inside Ukraine.

Zelensky’s ‘Defense System’: The Role of the USA in Defending a Cold War with the United States

Mr. Zelensky asked for funds for weapons in the speech he gave to the Group of 7 nations.

The US provided a large quantity of cannons and rockets to the Ukrainians, but there are not that many in the Pentagon’s active-duty units, according to experts.

Zakharova said that many experts overseas questioned the rationality of the step which would lead to an escalate of the conflict and increase the risk of dragging the US army into combat.

The country can protect against Russian attacks that have left millions without power because of the expensive and complicated security system known as the Patriot system.

The officials of a country that brutally attacked its neighbor in an illegal and unprovoked invasion chose to use provocative phrases to describe defensive systems that they are meant to save lives and protect civilians.

Appearing this week on Russian state TV, Commander Alexander Khodakovsky of the Russian militia in the Donetsk region suggested Russia could not defeat the NATO alliance in a conventional war.

The system would be used in a third country by the US troops. CNN has previously reported the training would occur at a US Army base in Grafenwoehr, Germany.

Perhaps the biggest obstacle was the question of manpower. Most positions are assigned to operate one missile battery. And the training needed is substantial; course lengths range from 13 weeks for a launching station operator to 53 weeks for a maintenance role, according to Army recruitment materials.

The Zelensky legacy goes beyond the man: The case for a ride out from Ukraine to Russia, not the notion of “nothing but ammunition”

Zelensky said in an interview with The Economist published Thursday that he disagreed with the idea of Ukraine trying to get back land seized by Russia since February of 2022, instead of areas like Donbas and Crimea.

The NATO Secretary General told the French news outlet France 24 this week that they still want to provide aid to Ukraine and make sure that NATO does not become involved in the war.

Old ammo. A US military official reported earlier this week on how Russian forces have had to use 40-year-old projectiles as their supply of new projectiles is quickly running out.

“You load the ammunition and you cross your fingers and hope it’s gonna fire or when it lands that it’s gonna explode,” said the official, speaking to reporters.

In the trenches. CNN’s Will Ripley filed a video report from trenches and fortifications being built along Ukraine’s border with Belarus, where there is growing concern about Russia once again assembling troops. Ripley talks to a sewing machine repairman turned tank driver.

It is easy to forget that Zelensky was at a disadvantage when Donald Trump tried to bribe the novice politician in the quid pro quo scandal.

In Paris at the time, I witnessed how Zelensky pulled up to the Élysée Palace in a modest Renault, while Putin motored in with an ostentatious armored limousine. (The host, French President Emmanuel Macron, hugged Putin but chose only to shake hands with Zelensky).

Zelensky is a brand that goes beyond the man. It is almost impossible to avoid the olive green t-shirts worn by the Ukrainian leader when he is pictured with the world leaders and Vogue journalists.

Zelensky was described as an ordinary man in the new book by the Eastern European editor of the Economist.

This, after all, is the leader who was offered a ride out of Russia’s invasion when he joked, “I need ammunition, not a ride.”

Revisiting Zelensky during a campaign to end the Cold War: a keynote address to the King and Queen of Ukraine

Amid the fog of war, it all seems a long, long way since the heady campaign celebration in a repurposed Kyiv nightclub where a fresh-faced Zelensky thanked his supporters for a landslide victory. He looked as if he had just lost to Petro Poroshenko while standing on the stage with the confetti.

His ratings appear to have improved as a result of the war. Just days after the invasion, Zelensky’s ratings approval surged to 90%, and remain high to this day. Even Americans early in the war rated Zelensky highly for his handling of international affairs – ahead of US President Joe Biden.

His previous professional life included a TV and theatrical comedy group, called Kvartal 95. Even in the midst of the war, a press conference held on the platform of a Kyiv metro station in April featured perfect lighting and curated camera angles to emphasize a wartime setting.

I remember well the solace his nightly addresses brought when air raid sirens and explosions rang out in Lviv, as he was the comforter in chief.

Zelensky is projecting confidence and competence to a younger, global audience that sees it as such by wearing T-shirts and hoodies.

“He is probably more comfortable than Putin on camera, too, both as an actor and as a digital native,” she added. I believe Zelensky is doing a better job of balancing authority and accessibility, but I still think that both of them want to come across as personable.

Journeying to where her husband can’t, Zelenska has shown herself to be an effective communicator in international fora – projecting empathy, style and smarts. Most recently, she met with King Charles during a visit to a refugee assistance center at the Ukrainian Catholic Cathedral of the Holy Family in London. (Curiously, TIME magazine did not include Zelenska on the cover montage and gave only a passing reference in the supporting text).

Despite the strong tailwinds at Zelensky’s back, there are subtle signs that his international influence could be dwindling. Zelensky urged the G7 to set a $30 price cap for Russian crude in order to punish the Kremlin, but that didn’t happen because the price cap was $60 a barrel.

As Zelensky said in a recent nightly video address: “No matter what the aggressor intends to do, when the world is truly united, it is then the world, not the aggressor, determines how events develop.”

Rishi Sunak’s first visit to the United States since his invasion of Ukraine on January 13, 2008, before the Commons Liaison Committee

It is expected that the European Union will cap natural gas prices, a measure to tackle an energy crisis spurred by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

On Tuesday, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak makes his first appearance as prime minister before the Commons Liaison Committee, where the Ukraine war and other global issues are discussed. That follows Sunak’s meeting on Monday in Latvia with members of a U.K.-led European military force.

Russian news reports said that Putin and his Chinese counterpart would hold virtual talks this month.

Ukrainians and Russians are heading into their first Christmas or Hanukkah festivities since the Kremlin launched its full-on invasion of Ukraine in February.

The International Atomic Energy Agency said Dec. 13 it made an agreement with Ukraine’s government to send nuclear safety and security experts to each of the country’s nuclear power plants.

A 65 person prisoner exchange resulted in the release from Russian controlled territory of an American. Suedi said he was trapped in a basement for weeks, and had to endure months of imprisonment in eastern Ukraine.

EU lawmakers approved about $19 billion in financing for Ukraine, Dec. 14, and more sanctions on Russia. The aid package followed pledges earlier in the week from dozens of countries and global institutions to support more than $1 billion in winter relief funds for Ukraine, helping the country with power, heat, food and medical supplies.

Zelensky was coming to Washington on a specific mission, according to Ruben Gallego, who visited Ukraine earlier this month. “What he is trying to do is draw a direct correlation between our support and the survival and support and future victory of Ukraine,” Gallego, a member of the Armed Services Committee, said.

The visit by theUkrainian leader to Washington is expected to last just a matter of hours and it is a remarkable moment ten months after the war in Ukraine began.

The US set to work on the parameters Zelensky determined met his needs after deciding he was very keen to visit the US. The trip was finally confirmed on Sunday.

Zelensky recalled an 81 year old visit to Washington by a leader of a dark, bomb ravaged nation who was desperate for the US to help turn his country around. Pelosi, likely presiding over her final great congressional occasion, recalled how her father was in the House, as a Maryland congressman, when British Prime Minister Winston Churchill addressed Congress on December 26, 1941. Zelensky borrowed one of the great statesman’s greatest lines, as he also presented himself as the symbol of a nation’s defiance.

His visit is unfolding amid extraordinary security. Pelosi refused to confirm the reports that she would welcome Zelensky to the Capitol in an unforeseen way, saying that she didn’t know yet. We just don’t know.”

Zelensky’s Visit to the House of Representatives: The Fate of the War on Ukraine, and the Story of the Day of September 11, 2001

In the end, it is protecting the civilian population from the drone and missile campaign by Russia which is designed to make the country uninhabitable.

Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander, Europe, Wesley Clark said that Zelensky’s trip reflects a critical moment when the destiny of a war that Ukraine cannot win without upgraded US support could be decided before Russia can regroup.

His visit to Congress will play into a debate over the aid to Ukraine, with Republicans poised to take over the majority on Capitol Hill. Some pro-Donald Trump members, who will have significant leverage in the thin GOP majority, warned that billions of dollars in US cash that have been sent to Ukraine should instead be used to shore up the US southern border with a surge of new migrants expected within days.

In March, for instance, Zelensky evoked Mount Rushmore and Martin Luther King Jr.’s “I have a Dream Speech” during a virtual address to Congress. When Americans were scared of aerial bombardment, there were two days of infamy in modern history.

It was a terrible morning of December 7, 1941 when the skies were black from the planes attacking you. Zelensky told them to just remember it. “Remember September 11, a terrible day in 2001 when evil tried to turn your cities, independent territories, into battlefields. Nobody else expected innocent people to be attacked from the air, so you could not stop it. Our country is the same every day.

The Battle of Britain and the Russia of the War on Everybody: The Favour of the Successes of President Churchill and the Russian War on the World

The leader of Britain sailed to the United States aboard HMS Duke of York, dodging U-boats in the wintery Atlantic, and boarded a plane in Virginia to Washington, where he met President Franklin Roosevelt the next day.

Over days of brainstorming and meetings – fueled by Churchill’s regime of sherry with breakfast, Scotch and sodas for lunch, champagne in the evening and a tipple of 90-year-old brandy before bed – the two leaders plotted the defeat of Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan and laid the foundation of the Western alliance that Biden has reinvigorated in his support for Ukraine.

Churchill, who had pined for US involvement in World War II for months and knew it was the key to defeating Adolf Hitler, said during his visit, “I spend this anniversary and festival far from my country, far from my family, and yet I cannot truthfully say that I feel far from home.”

The historical parallels will be appreciated by the Ukrainian leader. He paraphrased one of Churchill’s most famous wartime speeches in an emotional address to British members of parliament in March.

Keir Giles works for Chatham House, an international affairs think tank in the UK. He is the author of “Russia’s War on Everybody: What do it mean for you? The views expressed in this commentary are his own. Read more opinion on CNN.

Of course, Russia and its backers around the world will present this as a massive and dangerous escalation. That’s nonsense, but it’s highly effective nonsense.

And yet, Russia’s UN Security Council veto and the fear it has instilled through nuclear propaganda have given it a free pass to behave as it wishes, without fear of interference from a global community looking on in either ambivalence or helpless paralysis.

Russia’s efforts at deterrence continue to bring success in the form of arguments for a ceasefire as a preferable outcome to a Ukrainian victory – based on fear of the consequences of Russia suffering a defeat.

It is a bad example for other aggressive powers around the world. The report says that possession of nuclear weapons allows you to wage genocidal wars of destruction against your neighbors.

There are two key headline deliverables: first, the Patriot missile systems. Complex, accurate, and expensive, they have been described as the US’s “gold standard” of air defense. NATO guards them and they need personnel who are trained to operate almost 100 weapons in a battalion.

The second are used by the Ukranian jets. Ukraine, and Russia, largely are equipped with munitions that are “dumb” – fired roughly towards a target. Howitzers and other Western standard precision missiles have been provided to the country of Ukraine.

Moscow is struggling to equip and rally its conventional forces, and appears to be running out of new cards to play. China and India have joined the West in open statements against the use of nuclear force, which has made that option even less likely.

Western analysts have observed that Russia dislikes these deliveries, but hasn’t taken a strong stance towards crossing the red lines.

The Cheating Game for Ukraine: Why the U.S. ain’t going to give up, but why the Ukrainians can do it

This is trickier. Congress’s likely new Speaker, Republican Kevin McCarthy, has warned the Biden administration cannot expect a “blank cheque” from the new GOP-led House of Representatives.

Some elements of the America First party are questioning how much help the US should be giving to the edges of eastern Europe.

Realistically, the bill for the slow defeat of Russia in this dark and lengthy conflict is relatively light for Washington, given its near trillion-dollar annual defense budget.

Jeffrey was a 22-year Army veteran who is now a Russia analyst at the Center for a New American Security and said that it is a real humanitarian issue when you decide to deny an entire country of its electrical grid and water. “I believe they see that as a necessary step in order to help Ukrainians in the fight.”

“That will do a good job of defending maybe a single city, like Kyiv, against some threats. But it’s not putting a bubble over Ukraine,” said Mark Cancian, a retired Marine Corps colonel and senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The U.S. and Germany each announced they would send tanks to Ukraine, after months of resistance to the Ukrainian government’s repeated requests. Other countries like Poland can giveUkraine their Leopard 2 tanks, according to Germany.

Even on a compressed schedule, the training requirements make it unlikely that the system will be operational until late winter or early spring.

Cancian said hasty training could hamper the system’s effectiveness and that Ukrainians might be powerless to stop Russians from destroying it. He said that the political will to send future assistance to Ukraine could be damaged by that.

“If the Ukrainians had a year or two to assimilate the system, that wouldn’t be any problem. They do not have a year or two. They want to do this in a couple weeks,” Cancian said.

The Patriot Battery and the U.S. Air Defenses of Ukraine: Comment on Senator A. Zelensky at the House of Representatives

In addition to the Patriot battery, the new aid package announced Wednesday also includes additional HIMARS ammunition, mortars, artillery rounds and tens of thousands of GRAD rockets and tank ammunition.

Kelly Greico, a defense analyst at the Stimson Center, called the announcement “a sign that there is a real deep concern” among U.S. officials about Ukraine’s air defense capability.

At $4 million apiece, the PAC-3 missiles that accompany the Patriot are much more expensive than Stingers or the missiles launched by HIMARS. They are costly, so thatUkrainians must be careful with how they use them. “You can’t just let these things fly,” said Cancian.

Before October, Ukrainian air defenses had focused on protecting frontline troops in the east and south, along with key government buildings and military sites in Kyiv and a handful of regional hubs.

Greico said it’s a terrible choice to have to choose between your natural urge to protect civilians from attacks by Russia and the need to have long-term military wherewithal to continue resisting the Russian war effort.

Zelensky spoke from the US Capitol and expressed gratitude for American aid in fighting Russians since the beginning of the war.

The speech made allusions to the struggle of Ukrainian people, to our own revolution, and to a point where we need to think about all the families in Ukraine who will be huddled in the cold for Christmas.

Clinton, who previously met Russian President Vladimir Putin as US secretary of state, said the leader was “probably impossible to actually predict,” as the war turns in Ukraine’s favor and his popularity fades at home.

“I think around now, what [Putin] is considering is how to throw more bodies, and that’s what they will be – bodies of Russian conscripts – into the fight in Ukraine,” Clinton said.

This story was adapted from the December 22 edition of CNN’s Meanwhile in America, the daily email about US politics for global readers. You can subscribe to read past editions.

The comic actor-turned-wartime hero put millions of Ukrainians in the mercy of American lawmakers and taxpayers at a time when there is growing skepticism about the cost of US involvement.

At an emotional peak of his speech in the House chamber, Zelensky handed Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Vice President Kamala Harris a Ukrainian flag he retrieved from the hottest battle front at Bakhmut on Tuesday.

“Our heroes … asked me to bring this flag to you, to the US Congress, to members of the House of Representatives and senators whose decisions can save millions of people,” he said.

“The American people, in their righteous might, will win through to absolute victory,” Zelensky said, quoting FDR. “The Ukrainian people will win too, absolutely.”

— To Americans, Zelensky professed deep thanks for tens of billions of dollars in weapons and aid offered and to come. Implicitly, he argued they couldn’t abandon this gritty, independence hero without also suppressing something of their own patriotic national identify.

Some of the House Republican members who wanted to halt aid were welcomed in the chamber by the Ukrainian leader, who was seen as a hero.

The United States is in for as long as it takes, and why don’t we give everything to the Ukrainians? Zelensky at the White House

— To Europeans, enduring their own grim winter of high electricity and heating prices after cutting off from Russian energy, and who may be minded to push for an end to the conflict on Putin’s terms, Zelensky showed that the West is united and that Biden means it when he said Wednesday the US is in “for as long as it takes.”

We will celebrate Christmas. Not because it’s more romantic, no, but because there will be no electricity,” he said. We will celebrate Christmas even if there isn’t electricity, because the light of our faith will not be taken away.

Zelensky did not hide the uncertainties and risks of a war where the US is currently fighting a proxy battle with Russia.

Zelensky pointed out that despite the largesse of US artillery support and the upcoming arrival of high-tech weapons, his nation was still outgunned.

The president sent weapons to fight because he wanted to defend a European democracy and prevent a direct confrontation with Russia, but he also wanted to avoid crossing invisible red lines that may never be seen by the public.

You say, why don’t we just give everything to the people of Ukraine? Biden said at the White House, explaining that pushing overwhelming force into Ukraine would risk fracturing the transatlantic consensus needed to support the war.

However, given partisan fury that will erupt in a divided Washington next year, there is no guarantee that America’s lawmakers will even be able to fund their own government – let alone one fighting for its survival thousands of miles away.

Zelensky and the U.S. are “set for a long confrontation with Russia” in Kyiv, the United States, and the Ukraine

Kyiv and its Western allies are “set for a long confrontation with Russia” following President Volodymyr Zelensky’s momentous visit to Washington, Moscow said as the war in Ukraine approaches 10 months.

Russia denounced the brutality of the regime in Kyiv after US President Joe Biden promised military support to the country at a meeting with Zelensky.

Maria Zakharova said that the west will achieve nothing, even if they give more military support to the Ukrainian government.

The tasks in the framework of the special military operation are to be fulfilled, Zakharova stated, referring to Russia’s war in Ukraine.

There were no calls for peace, according to Peskov. But during his address to the US Congress on Wednesday, Zelensky did stress that “we need peace,” reiterating the 10-point plan devised by Ukraine.

Peskov told journalists, however, that Wednesday’s meeting showed the US is waging a proxy war of “indirect fighting” against Russia down “to the last Ukrainian.”

The Kremlin has also been selling that line to the Russian public, who is largely buying it, says Sergey Radchenko, a Russian history professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

Zelenskyy and the Ukraine have made clear that they want a “just peace,” and all the US has been doing is helping the country defend itself against Russian aggression.

Menon notes, however, that every one of his comments could just as easily apply to Russia’s earlier waves of cyberattacks on the country’s internet—such as the NotPetya malware released by Russia’s GRU hackers, which five years earlier destroyed the digital networks of hundreds of government agencies, banks, airports, hospitals, and even its radioactivity monitoring facility in Chernobyl. The goal is the same, even though they’re different in the details. “Demoralizing and punishing civilians.”

Anna Kovalchuck was determined not to let the Russians ruin her celebrations. “I’m more worried that most likely there will be no electricity on New Year’s Eve and the holiday will have to be spent in the dark. She told CNN that she stocked up on garlands, power banks and other items to be able to deal with the situation without being stopped.

Halyna Hladka made breakfast for her family as soon as the sirens sounded, so they would have something to eat, after she stocked up on water. After nearly two hours, they heard the sounds of explosions. “It seemed to me that they were really close to our area but it turned out to be air defense,” she told CNN. A single attack won’t cancel out the fact that we will celebrate the new year with the family.

Hryn said: “The life in the capital was back to normal after the sirens blew, and my neighbor’s child and I met in the elevator to catch the new movie.” People continued with holiday plans despite the fact that parents took their children to school.

Zelensky’s war on Ukraine: Why it’s pointless barbarism, and what he wants to do about it

Russia will not negotiate with the government of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky if he goes ahead with plans to withdraw Russia from all of Ukrainian territory.

Petraeus: I think it ends in a negotiated resolution, when Putin recognizes that the war is unsustainable on both the battlefield (where Russia has in the first year likely taken many times the losses that the USSR took in nearly a decade in Afghanistan) and on the home front (which has been heavily impacted by economic, financial, economic, and personal sanctions and export controls).

When the grid is short-circuited, the electricity is turned off in order to diminish damage from the grid.

At least three people, including a 14-year-old, were injured and two people pulled from a damaged home on Thursday, Klitschko said earlier. Homes, an industrial facility and a playground in the capital were damaged in attacks on Kyiv, according to the city military administration.

“I think it’s pointless barbarism.” The foreign minister of Ukraine said that there could be no neutrality in the face of Russian aggression when he spoke about the new wave of attacks on Ukrainian cities.

When Putin said his forces were starting a military campaign, he was referring to a limited campaign that would end in a few weeks.

Yet the war has also fundamentally upended Russian life — rupturing a post-Soviet period in which the country pursued, if not always democratic reforms, then at least financial integration and dialogue with the West.

War against Ukraine Has Left Russia Isolated and Struturing With More Tortuttle-Ahed: The Ukrainian Perspective

Draconian laws passed since February have outlawed criticism of the military or leadership. According to a leading independent monitoring group, over 20,000 people have been taken into custody for demonstrating against the war.

A long prison sentence for questioning how the Russian army is conducted can be meted out to high profile opposition voices.

Even Russia’s most revered human rights group, 2022’s Nobel Prize co-recipient Memorial, was forced to stop its activities over alleged violations of the foreign agents law.

The state has also vastly expanded Russia’s already restrictive anti-LGBT laws, arguing the war in Ukraine reflects a wider attack on “traditional values.”

For now, repressions remain targeted. Some of the new laws are not enforced. The measures are designed to crush dissent should it arise.

Leading independent media outlets and a handful of vibrant, online investigative startups were forced to shut down or relocate abroad when confronted with new “fake news” laws that criminalized contradicting the official government line.

Restrictions extend to internet users as well. In March, American social media giants were banned. Since the beginning of the conflict, the internet regulators of the Kremlin have blocked more than 100,000 websites.

Technical workarounds such as VPNs and Telegram still offer access to Russians seeking independent sources of information. Older Russians prefer state media propaganda over angry TV talk shows.

Source: https://www.npr.org/2022/12/31/1145981036/war-against-ukraine-has-left-russia-isolated-and-struggling-with-more-tumult-ahe

What Russians Really Want in Europe During the First World War? Why Vladimir Putin’s Military Campaign Probably Will Not Be Enforced

Many perceived government opponents left during the early days of the war due to concerns of persecution.

Some countries that have absorbed the exodus of Russians think their economies are going to grow despite the fact that Russians are still a problem for former soviet republics.

Russia’s banking and trading markets looked shaky in the early days of the invasion, as the ruble currency cratered. Hundreds of global corporate brands, such as McDonald’s and ExxonMobil, reduced, suspended or closed their Russian operations entirely.

Ultimately, President Putin is betting that when it comes to sanctions, Europe will blink first — pulling back on its support to Ukraine as Europeans grow angry over soaring energy costs at home. The ban on oil exports to countries that don’t abide by the price cap is likely to make the pain worse in Europe.

When it comes to Russia’s military campaign, there’s no outward change in the government’s tone. Daily briefings are provided by the Defense Ministry of Russia. Putin, too, repeatedly assures that everything is “going according to plan.”

There is no immediate Russian victory in sight and the sheer length of the war suggests Russia underestimated Ukrainians.

The true number of Russian losses – officially at just under 6,000 men – remains a highly taboo subject at home. Western estimates place those figures closer to the truth.

Putin’s Russian Campaign against the Cosmic Arms-to-Cost war: Implications for Central Asia and for the Kremlin

Meanwhile, as Petraeus notes, though Russian President Vladimir Putin set out to Make Russia Great Again with his invasion of Ukraine, he has, instead, achieved exactly that with the NATO alliance.

Longtime allies in Central Asia have criticized Russia’s actions out of concern for their own sovereignty, an affront that would have been unthinkable in Soviet times. China and India have bought discounted Russian oil, but they have not supported the military campaign in Russia.

There was a state of the nation address that was scheduled for April, but will not happen until next year. Putin’s yearly “direct line” media event, in which he fields questions from ordinary Russians, was axed.

An annual December “big press conference” – a semi-staged affair that allows the Russian leader to handle fawning questions from mostly pro-Kremlin media – was similarly tabled until 2023.

No reason was given by the Kremlin for the delays. Many suspect it might be that, after 10 months of war and no sign of victory in sight, the Russian leader has finally run out of good news to share.

An apparent Ukrainian strike killed 63 Russian servicemen and destroyed a military facility in Makiivka during the Cuban Missile Crisis

America has done this before. During the Cuban Missile Crisis the position of the Soviet Union changed in a matter of days, and they eventually accepted the outcome that favored the West. Had “red lines” thinking been in vogue, America might well have accepted an inferior compromise that weakened its security and credibility.

A group of people said that an apparent Ukrainian strike in Russian occupied eastern Ukraine killed a large number of Russian troops.

Russian officials said that four Ukrainian-launched HIMARS rockets hit the vocational school where its forces were housed, apparently adjacent to a large arms depot. There were two rockets shot down by Russian air defenses.

The Russian defense ministry on Monday acknowledged the attack and claimed that 63 Russian servicemen died, which would make it one of the deadliest single episodes of the war for Moscow’s forces.

Russian senator Grigory Karasin said that those responsible for the killing of Russian servicemen in Makiivka must be found, Russian state news agency TASS reported Monday.

Video reportedly from the scene of the attack circulated widely on Telegram, including on an official Ukrainian military channel. It shows a pile of smoking rubble, in which almost no part of the building appears to be standing.

The Strategic Communications Directorate of the Chief Commander-in-Chief of the armed forces of Ukraine sent greetings and applauded the fighters who were brought to the occupied Makiivka. Santa filled bags with the corpses of Russian soldiers.

Daniil Bezsonov, a former official in the Russia-backed Donetsk administration, said on Telegram that “apparently, the high command is still unaware of the capabilities of this weapon.”

Bezsonov hopes those who made the decision to use the facility will be reprimanded. There are plenty of abandoned facilities in the area where personnel can be quartered.

A Russian propagandist who blogs about the war effort on Telegram, Igor Girkin, claimed that the building was almost completely destroyed by the secondary detonation of ammunition stores.

The military equipment stood close to the building without any sign of camouflage, and was destroyed. “There are still no final figures on the number of casualties, as many people are still missing.”

Girkin has long decried Russian generals whom he claims direct the war effort far from the frontline, calling them “unlearned in principle” and unwilling to listen to warnings about putting equipment and personnel so close together in HIMARS range. Girkin was previously minister of defense of the self-proclaimed, Russian-backed Donetsk People’s Republic, and was found guilty by a Dutch court of mass murder for his involvement in the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 over eastern Ukraine in 2014.

The unnecessary losses, which, if the elementary precautions relating to the dispersal and concealing of personnel were taken, might not have been happened, are a result of some conclusions not being made.

Donetsk, Ukraine: How Russia is attempting to Breathe Space for its Armed Forces in the Light of Putin’s Decay

Donetsk has been held by pro-Russian separatists since 2014 and it is one of four Ukrainian regions that Moscow sought to annex in October in violation of international law.

Russian forces “lost 760 people killed just yesterday, (and) continue to attempt offensive actions on Bakhmut,” the military’s general staff said Sunday.

Russian units have been pressing an offensive towards the city of Bakhmut in Donetsk for months but have suffered heavy losses as Ukrainian forces have targeted them in what is largely open rural territory.

There were air raid sirens going off over the weekend as Russian missile strikes hit several regions. At least six people were killed and a man was injured in the attacks.

Biden affirmed the new commitment in a telephone call with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Thursday. New fighting vehicles, and a missile battery, will be sent to Ukraine by Germany.

The Bradley fighting vehicle, which moves on tracks rather than wheels, can hold around 10 troops and is used to transport personnel into battle. The White House said the US and Germany would provide training to Ukrainian forces on the respective vehicles being provided to Kyiv.

Zelensky wants those systems because they will allow his army to target Russian missiles at higher altitudes, instead of having to attack them from the ground.

It was the cell phones that the rookies were using that allowed Ukrainian forces to target them most accurately, according to the Russian account. Ukraine, however, has not indicated how the attack was executed. The implications of how Russia is conducting its war now are even more profound.

It is telling that days after the deadliest known attack on Russian servicemen, President Vladimir Putin called for a temporary ceasefire, citing the Orthodox Christmas holiday. The move was dismissed by the US and Ukranian as a cynical attempt to get breathing space for Russian forces, who have suffered a very bad start to the year.

Chris had told me that the main reason Russia was not able to break up the large arms depots was due to the fact that their forces couldn’t communicate adequately.

It’s a view shared by other experts. “Bad communications security seems to be standard practice in the Russian Army,” James Lewis, director of the Strategic Technologies Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), told me in an e-mail exchange.

The troops killed in Makiivka were conscripts, part of a larger picture of Russian soldiers being shipped to the front lines with little training and sub-standard equipment and weapons.

A number of inmates from Russian prisons have been freed and transferred to the Ukrainian side. The use of cell phones for prisoners who have been isolated for years would be very appealing to them.

Semyan Pegov, who was awarded an Order of Courage by President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin two weeks ago, criticized the Ministry of Defense for its accusation that it was the troops who used cell phones.

He questioned how the Ministry of Defense could be “so sure” that the location of soldiers lodging in a school building could not have been determined using drone surveillance or a local informant.

A month earlier, the defense ministry underwent a shakeup when Col. Gen. Mikhail Y. Mizintsev, known to Western officials as the “butcher of Mariupol,” was named deputy defense minister for overseeing logistics, replacing four-star Gen. Dmitri V. Bulgakov, who had held the post since 2008. The location of the arms depot, adjacent to the Makiivka recruits, would likely have been on Mizintsev’s watch.

Still, Putin-favorite Sergei Shoigu remains defense minister — as recently as Saturday, before the Makiivka attack, telling his forces in a celebratory video: “Our victory, like the New Year, is inevitable.”

The Biden administration announced on Friday it would be withdrawing its largest amount of assistance to date, but there are concerns that the new Republican Congress may not approve future aid, especially with the House in chaos.

Blinken said the administration would work with Congress to “to provide an additional $907 million of Foreign Military Financing under the Additional Ukraine Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2022.”

A diplomat told CNN that the impasse definitely means trouble for Ukraine aid and that many of the people who fought McCarthy have spoken out against additional assistance for Kyiv.

Several Republican members who switched their votes to support McCarthy on Friday said they are encouraged by a framework of an agreement, but provided no specifics about the deal and said talks are ongoing.

Implications of the White House Speaker Negotiations on the Future of US Support for Ukraine: a Foreign Diplomat Comment on the Ukraine Crisis

That number was even higher than President Joe Biden requested – a reflection of Democrats’ concern that additional funding wouldn’t be as forthcoming in a GOP-led House. The White House thought that the number would sustain US support for a long time, and it was an insurance policy against Republican resistance.

Rules changes to the budgetary process could make it harder to pass new aid come September, as well as certain conservative Republicans who have vowed to oppose any newUkraine funding.

The implications of the House speaker negotiations on the future of US support for Ukraine is a concern for foreign diplomats.

“This is a harbinger for a protracted legislative paralysis,” the diplomat said, adding that “the Freedom Caucus – which is not particularly pro-Ukrainian – has just demonstrated its clout.”

Others noted they were watching closely to see the kinds of maneuvers McCarthy would make to secure the role, which could potentially include cuts to aid.

A diplomat is worried about the policy concessions McCarthy has to make, and whether they will affect the US role in the world.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said it was an excellent Christmas present for his country. The lawmakers in the country told CNN they aren’t concerned that the future of assistance could be at risk, citing the strong past support for aiding the country.

Russia reasoned that if Washington blocked Nord Stream 2, which it ultimately did, then it would show that European power no longer flowed through Berlin, but actually via the White House.

The new, high-capacity supply that was needed to replace the old overland lines that traveled between Ukraine and Europe was not wanted by the United States.

Putin rejoinds Russia in the aftermath of the Russian-Russian conflict: a tale of courage and pragmatism

Europe has been slow to respond to the deep fissures in US politics and the uncertainty of a Trumpian-style presidency. Decades of a reasonably unshakable reliance, if not complete trust, in the US, has been replaced by stubborn European pragmatism – and Germany leads the way.

Europe has a moral compass. Scholz has found unexpected metal in his ponderous, often stop/go/wait traffic-light governing coalition and won thunderous applause in Germany’s Bundestag on Wednesday as he flashed a rare moment of steely leadership.

He said that they wouldn’t put you in danger. He said how his government had handled Russia’s aggression and how he didn’t know about the freezing winter and economic collapse. The government was able to deal with the crisis, he said.

The applause at each step was louder than his words. It was a good idea for the Germans to have someone who could project their own power, and it was also a good idea for them to be divided over how much they should aid Ukraine in killing Russians.

But if in Europe Scholz seems to have wrestled some vestige of influence over America in the Ukraine war, in Moscow they don’t believe his new vigor changes much.

Russia would never allow itself to be defeated, and would use nuclear weapons if threatened, according to the former Russian president and deputy chairman of the national security council.

The decision of Biden and Scholz on tanks can’t prevent Russia from reaching its goals, according to Putin’s spokesman.

CNN spoke with some people who were confused by the mixed messaging of Biden and Scholz. Some said Russia would win regardless, and lumped the US and Germany together as the losers, but a significant proportion were worried about the war, dismayed at the heavy death toll and frustrated that Putin ignored their concerns.

From being late to recognize Russia’s threat, reorient Germany, reinvigorate its military, and ramp up weapon supplies to Ukraine, the pragmatist Scholz has now signaled Germany is very much in play – and, indeed, wants hands on the controls. He said Germany would “coordinate” supplies of the Leopard 2 from allies to Ukraine, a power invested in him by German legislation preventing any purchaser of the country’s war-fighting hardware to pass it on to a third state.

Zelensky will likely be sent a message that weapons supplies will be on a German leash and not led by Washington if the current debates about the Ukrainian military are any indication.

This shift in the power dynamic may not change the way the war is fought but could impact the contours of a final deal and shape a lasting peace when it comes.

The International Monetary Fund releases its latest World Economic Outlook on Tuesday morning in Singapore. The IMF has stressed that the Russia-Ukraine war is a big factor causing economic slowdown and recession in some countries.

The Russian invasion of Soledar by the Ukrainians and the plan for joint operations with the Security and Defense Forces of the South of Ukraine

European Commission leaders are scheduled to arrive in Ukraine on Thursday, just as European Union leaders are scheduled to hold a summit with Zelenskyy the following day.

Ukraine’s military acknowledged the Russian takeover of Soledar, retreating from the eastern town after a tough battle. Russian forces continue their offensive around the eastern part of the Ukranian.

New U.S. Ambassador to Russia Lynne Tracy arrived in Moscow, at a time of strong tensions between the two governments over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The protesters heckled Tracy as she entered the Russian Foreign Ministry to present her credentials.

The ambassadors from Russia have been told to leave by the Baltic NATO members after the Kremlin decided to downGRADE relations with them.

There is a likelihood of a maximum escalation in the war between Russia and the Ukrainians soon, according to a top Ukrainian national security official.

“These will be defining months in the war,” Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, told Sky News in an interview broadcast Tuesday.

Natalia spoke on national television about how the Security and Defense Force of the South of Ukraine is conducting operations on land, in the sea and in the air.

Military representatives from the two countries will plan the use of troops on the basis of previous conflicts, according to the ministry.

Chaotic scenes in Donetsk, Ukraine: Vladimir Putin, Putin, Pushilin, the enemy, and the rest of the world

In recent weeks Western allies, including Germany, the United States and the United Kingdom, have promised to ship tanks to Ukraine to help its forces fight back against a Russian offensive that is expected to begin when weather conditions improve in the spring.

On January 30, US President Joe Biden reiterated that Washington would not send its F16 fighter jets to Ukraine, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has also said that he does not envisage providing warplanes to Kyiv.

The scenes are chaotic: Russian tanks veering wildly before exploding or driving straight into minefields, men running in every direction, some on fire, the bodies of soldiers caught in tank tracks.

At least two dozen Russian tanks and infantry vehicles have been disabled or destroyed in a matter of days, according to the videos, which were released by the Ukrainian military and analyzed by CNN and military experts. Satellite images show impacts on the tree lines where Russian tanks were attempting to advance.

The Russian Defense Ministry has insisted the assault on Vuhledar, where the 155th Marine Brigade is prominently involved, is going according to plan. In remarks recorded for a Sunday television show, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the “marine infantry is working as it should. It’s right now. Fighting heroically.

But the leader of the self-declared, Russian-backed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), Denis Pushilin, acknowledged Friday that the area was “hot” and said “the enemy continues to transfer reserves in large quantities, and this slowed down the liberation of this settlement.”

On Russian tanks and troops in Vuhledar, Ukraine: Did the Russian tanks get entangled or reverse blindly? A comment by Igor Girkin

Cooper says the Russians built a formidable force around Vuhledar, “say, a total of about 20,000 troops, 90 MBTs [main battle tanks], perhaps two times as many IFVs [infantry fighting vehicles], and about 100 artillery pieces.”

The attacks in the last week of January were flawed, he said. “They were advancing along a relatively narrow route, all the time in sight of Ukrainian observers posted atop of high buildings in Vuhledar, and now facing about 500 meters of empty terrain on the eastern side of the town,” Cooper wrote on his blog.

Strelkov, also known as Igor Girkin, added on Telegram that “a lot of good T-72B3/T-80BVM tanks and the best paratroopers and marines were liquidated.”

In another post on Telegram, Strelkov wrote: “Only morons attack head-on in the same place, heavily fortified and extremely inconvenient for the attackers for many months in a row.”

Moscow Calling asserted that older T-72 tanks deployed in Vuhledar lack upgrades that would improve the driver’s breadth of vision. The Russian Tanks seemed to get entangled or reverse blindly in several instances.

“How are blind, deaf tanks, armored personnel carriers, with equally blind, deaf infantry supposed to fight without columns? If there is no communication and situational awareness, how do you coordinate any actions? he wrote.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/13/europe/russia-ukraine-vuhledar-donetsk-fiasco-intl/index.html

Ukrainian Fire Brigades and Thermobaric Missiles During the Vuhledar Assault: Comments on the First Ukrainian Congressional Observations

Several Russian commentators have called for the dismissal of Lieutenant General Rustam Muradov, the commander of the Eastern Grouping of Forces. The men of the 155th protested that their tactics had resulted in huge losses.

In an expletive-laden post, the pro-Wagner Telegram channel Grey Zone said of Muradov: “This coward is lying down at the control point and sending column after column until the commander of one of the brigades involved in the Vuhledar assault is dead on the contact line.”

These are not the tactics or practices that, at the end of the day, foster development of well-trained, disciplined, capable, and cohesive units that have trust in their leaders and soldiers on their left and right.

Ukrainian military officials say there is a random mix of Russian forces in the Vuhledar area, including professional units, the recently mobilized, militia of the DPR and infantry of a private military company called Patriot, which is said to be close to the Russian defense ministry.

The commander of the Ukrainian forces said that effective fire damage is the key to success on the battlefield.

Russian forces continue to have a distinct advantage in firepower. On Saturday they launched a barrage of thermobaric missiles at Vuhledar, a reminder that they are more capable of inflicting destruction than taking territory.

The war in Ukraine received far less attention in the address given by President Biden this year, but Ukrainian ambassador to the US Oksana Markarova attended.

The Ukraine’s Arms Need Not Be Replaced: The NATO Security & Defense Ammoment Crisis Revealed by Witney

It’s hard to get exact numbers on exactly what weapons individual nations currently hold in their arsenals due to the sensitivity of the information. But multiple European defense and security sources have told CNN that there are serious concerns at just how much of Europe’s ammunition has been used on the battlefield and not replaced. The United States is not able to meet the demand for weapons it sells toUkraine, as reported by CNN late last year.

On Monday night, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters ahead of a meeting of alliance officials that “the current rate of Ukraine’s ammunition expenditure is many times higher than our current rate of production – this puts our defense industries under strain.”

The combination of no immediate threat and the financial pressures on European governments have led to a conspiracy, according to Nick Witney, Senior Policy Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

The looming ammunition crisis has, however, revealed that policymaking is often based on convenient assumptions of the best-case scenario. After all, taking no action, in the short-term at least, is often cheaper than taking action.

Col Serhiy Cherevaty, a spokesman for the armed forces, said that soldiers need to focus on building defensive lines. He said that part of the reason for the order was to protect the military’s secret operations.

Bakhmut doesn’t offer much in the way of strategic value for either Moscow or Kyiv. The amount of blood spilled makes it significant.

“Even if Bakhmut were to fall, it would not have a strategic impact on the overall war,” said the National Security Council spokesman, John Kirby. “I would go so far as to say it won’t even have necessarily a strategic impact on the fighting in that part of the country.”

The First Open-Source War: Does the U.S. Seek More Advanced Weapons to Counteract the Russian Invasion? A Comment on the Response of the Pentagon to Ukraine

In Brussels, Western officials deflected questions about whether Ukraine would win its campaign to secure still more powerful weapons to use against its Russian enemy.

Mr. Austin, the American defense secretary, said that there was no announcement today.

A senior British official told CNN it was unlikely the Russian forces would be better organized and more successful.

“They amassed enough manpower to take one or two small cities in Donbas, but that’s it,” a senior Ukrainian diplomat told CNN. Compared to the sense of panic they were trying to build in Ukranian.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Tuesday in Brussels that the US is not seeing Russia “massing its aircraft” ahead of an aerial operation against Ukraine.

Bergen: Is this the first truly open-source war? Zelensky’s social media accounts show what he is up to, as well as commercial overhead satellites that capture battle groups moving around in real-time.

Petraeus is not a fan of the Biden administration’s withdrawal of Afghanistan. He says the President and his team have done a very admirable job of leading the NATO and West to counteract the Russian invasion even though there have been some times he would have liked to have seen the quicker decisions made on weapons systems like western tanks.

Petraeus: It isn’t Russia. Russia has, after all, lost the Battles of Kyiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv; failed to take the rest of Ukraine’s southern coast (not even getting through Mykolaiv, much less to the major port at Odesa).

It lost what it had achieved in the province. And it has had to withdraw its only forces west of the Dnipro River in Kherson province because the Ukrainians made the vital bridge connections to those forces impassable, took out the headquarters and logistics sites supporting those forces, and isolated them from the rest of the Russian elements east of the river.

The side that generates the most capable, well-trained and well-equipped forces by then will make the most significant gains. I bet that Ukraine will do that in that regard.

We are starting to get a glimpse of what warfare might look like in the future. When the US gives precision weapons to Russia, theUkrainian use of drones will double to 150 kilometers as aerial observers to see Russian headquarters and other targets.

Perhaps most notably, of course, we see a war taking place, for the first time, in a context that includes the widespread presence of smart phones, internet connectivity, and social media and other internet sites.

What Do We Need to Do to Conserve the Arms of the Continuum Cold War? The Case of Vladimir Petraeus

In the air, at sea, sub-sea, on the ground, in outer space, and in cyberspace, there would be greater number of vastly more capable outlying systems.

I recall an adage back in the Cold War days that stated, “If it can be seen, it can be hit; if it can be hit, it can be killed.” In those days, we didn’t have the assets and capabilities to “operationalize” that adage. In the future, all platforms, bases, and headquarters are likely to be seen and potentially vulnerable to being hit and destroyed.

It underscores the need to transform our forces and systems. To deter future conflict, we have to make sure that there are no questions about our abilities, our willingness to employ them, and our competitors, and we have to do everything we can to make sure that competition among great powers doesn’t turn into conflict.

Thanks to Putin, the description of NATO as suffering from “brain death” by French President Macron in late 2019 has turned out to be more than a bit premature.

All of the above, and more, is what Petraeus said. The list is long, including poor campaign design; wholly inadequate training (what were they doing for all those months they were deployed on the northern, eastern, and southern borders of Ukraine?); poor command, control, and communications; inadequate discipline (and a culture that condones war crimes and abuse of local populations); poor equipment (exemplified by turrets blowing off of tanks when fires ignite in them); insufficient logistic capabilities; inability to achieve combined arms effects (to employ all ground and air capabilities effectively together); inadequate organizational architecture; lack of a professional noncommissioned officer corps; a top-down command system that does not promote initiative at lower levels and pervasive corruption that undermines every aspect of their military – and the supporting military-industrial complex.

Petraeus: Not at all. Russia has enormous military capacity, is still a nuclear superpower, and it also has great energy, mineral, and agricultural blessings. Germany and Turkey have populations less than 80 million and 141 million, respectively, but it also has a population more than double that of the next largest European countries.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/14/opinions/petraeus-how-ukraine-war-ends-bergen-ctpr/index.html

How do the Russians feel about the Ukrain-Russia war? What have we learned in the last 200 years of the kleptocracy?

And it is still led by a kleptocratic dictator who embraces innumerable grievances and extreme revanchist views that severely undermine his decision-making.

Stalin used to say, “Quantity has a quality all its own.” Russia has a far bigger population than Ukraine: Will that make a critical difference to the Ukraine war over the long term?

Some 300,000 new recruits are being sent to the frontlines with an estimated 100,000-150,000 more on the way. And that is not trivial – because quantity does, indeed, matter.

The Ukrainians know what they are fighting for, while there is no clear picture of how many Russians are from ethnic minorities in the Russian Federation.

All of those technologies have proven very important and the Ukrainians have shown enormous skill in adapting them to military tasks.

I have felt that we should have provided a variety of capabilities when I’ve felt that way before. We don’t have until sooner than that.

Eventually, for example, Ukraine is going to have to transition from eastern bloc aircraft (e.g., MiG-29s) to western ones (e.g., F-16s). There just aren’t any more MiGs to provide to them, and they reportedly have more pilots than aircraft at this point.

So, we might as well begin the process of transition, noting that it will take a number of months, regardless, to train pilots and maintenance personnel. All that said, again, I think the Administration has done a very impressive job and proven to be the indispensable nation in this particular situation – with important ramifications for other situations around the world.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/14/opinions/petraeus-how-ukraine-war-ends-bergen-ctpr/index.html

How Should the Russian Navy End its Black Sea War? Is There a “Massive Nuclear War” in the First War of the Cold War?

The force that Putin puts in the toughest battles is the quasi-privateWagner Group. Any thoughts on using mercenaries, many of whom are convicts, as a tactic?

What Russia has done with its mercenaries is innovative, but also inhumane, as it entails throwing soldiers into battle as cannon fodder, and with little concern for their survival.

If China invaded Taiwan, what are the lessons of Thailand for the Chinese, who were not able to invade it over a land border? Does the sinking of the Moskva, the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea navy, reshape how the Chinese might think about this question?

Even if the targets of such an operation have a population who are willing to fight for its survival and will be supported by major powers, with substantial economic, financial, and personal sanctions and export controls.

To quote Jake Sullivan of the US National Security Advisory, the consequences of using nuclear weapons for Russia would be catastrophic.

Petraeus: Yes, I believe it is. The first war of its kind, in which the use of social media and smartphones are so widespread, has taken place. Through open sources, an extraordinary amount of information is available.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/14/opinions/petraeus-how-ukraine-war-ends-bergen-ctpr/index.html

The Russian Forces, the Iraq War, and the Security of the Cold War: A Critical Look at a Ruling-Informed Approach

The limitations of the Russian forces’ professional capabilities, as well as their inability to generate “combined arms effect”- in other words, integrating the actions of tanks with infantry and other heavy weapons, make a new plan hard to come by.

At the beginning of the Iraq War, you asked a rhetorical question, “tell me how this ends?” How does the war in Ukraine end?

Also when Ukraine reaches the limits of its ability to withstand missile and drone strikes, getting a Marshall-like plan (developed by the US and G7) to help rebuild the country, and gaining an ironclad security guarantee (either NATO membership or, if that is not possible, a US-led coalition guarantee).