The world leader tries his luck in the aftermath of the meeting
China’s diplomatic clout in the wake of the Ukraine war: the role of the EU and its relations with the rest of the world
A former CNN producer and correspondent, Frida Ghitis is now a world affairs columnist. She writes for CNN, The Washington Post, and World Politics Review. The views expressed in this commentary are her own. View more opinion on CNN.
A few days after French President Emmanuel Macron stunned and angered France’s allies by handing Chinese leader Xi Jinping an unnecessary and potentially important victory, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva started his own trip to Beijing — another in a series of exchanges that shows China’s increasing global diplomatic clout.
Like most of China’s diplomacy, the country paints itself as champion of global peace, even as it launches menacing military maneuvers. Xi calls for peace in Ukraine, even presenting a vague, mostly meaningless proposal. He has not done much to help end the war or condemn Russia.
Elsewhere, China already scored a major diplomatic victory brokering reconciliation between Iran and Saudi Arabia earlier this month. In the background, it’s having advanced talks with Russia and Iran to provide Tehran with the material it needs to boost its missile program, according to a report. It would be a violation of the United Nations sanctions, as well as a way to give Russia’s arsenal a new lease on life.
Beijing has watched uneasily as the war in Ukraine has driven the US and its European allies closer. Now, analysts say playing up its economic partnerships and exploiting differences between countries on the two sides of the Atlantic is key.
European allies moved from disbelief to anger about statements that the French President made during his trip, and French diplomats were busy trying to assure them that he was in no way closer to China than to the Western alliance.
While in Beijing last week, the French President said that China and France both have a tradition of independence, and also advocated a multi-polar world.
Europe faces the risk of being caught up in crises that are not ours, according to him, which seems to suggest that Taiwan is not Europe’s problem.
The timing could not have been worse. China initiated a military operation around Taiwan just a few hours after Macron left. It was apparently China’s retaliation for the visit between Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen and US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.
France’s European allies quickly distanced themselves from Macron’s stance. Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Moawiecki said “the alliance with the United States is the absolute foundation of our security.” Europe needs more America, but the United States is more of a guarantee of safety in Europe than France, said an adviser to Poland’s President.
The official US government response was low-key, but Sen. Marco Rubio wondered in a twitter video if Macron was speaking for Europe. If so, he said, perhaps the US could tell Europe, “You guys handle Ukraine.”
Do we need a global order from China? Xi is ready to take the lead in ending Russia’s coronavirus pandemic
After a red carpet welcome followed by a staged love-fest with gushing university students,Macron came across as naive or perhaps successfully seduced by China’s treatment.
French officials moved frantically into damage control, canceling a debriefing for foreign diplomats on Macron’s China trip, and then declaring that France has not changed its position on Taiwan. France is not analogous to the United States and China, states a statement from the Elysee Palace. It added: “The United States is our ally, with shared values.”
It’s more than an academic question: European countries feel threatened by an aggressive Russia; many are convinced that victory over Ukraine would lead Russian President Vladimir Putin to expand his aim of reconstituting the old Soviet Union by conquering former members, including independent countries in the European Union.
In 2020, when the coronavirus pandemic erupted, Australia’s then-Prime Minister Scott Morrison called for an independent investigation of its origin. China retaliated with fury, imposing crushing tariffs on Australian wine and warning it about its future behavior.
On Friday, that list grew to include Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who is expected to sign a host of bilateral deals with Xi – and, like several of the leaders before him, arrives with hopes of making progress toward ending Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Since China has not taken a stance on the Russian invasion, it is an opportunity for him to push back against perceived threats and assert his vision for a global order not dictated by American rules.
Three years of scaled-back diplomacy because of China’s strict Covid-19 controls coupled with economic challenges and competition from the US and Europe has left Xi under pressure to act.
The Chinese leadership believe the time is right for China to make its strategic plans, according to an associate professor of international relations.
It is possible to weaken American alliances, so that is why Beijing is making efforts to improve relations with European nations and with emerging economies.
In a talk with Singapore’s Lee Hsien Loong late last month, Chinese President XI urged Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim to resist the “Cold War mentality” and oppose the separation of industrial and supply chains.
To Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez that same day, he warned that the “sound development of China-EU relations requires the EU to uphold strategic independence,” according to readouts from the Chinese side.
After a day of meeting in Beijing, the two presidents met in Guangzhou, China, to drink tea and listen to traditional Chinese music before the dinner.
The Brazilian leader is in China for the second time in as many years, and this time is expected to close a number of bilateral deals, from agriculture and livestock to technology.
“Xi will find in Lula a BRICS enthusiast, openness to reforms in the global governance system and the desire to avoid automatic alignment with the US,” said Luiza Duarte, a research fellow at American University’s Center for Latin American and Latino Studies in Washington.
Meanwhile, Lula’s expected warm welcome in Beijing “raises comparison with his frustrating less than 24-hour visit to Washington,” she said, referring to the Brazilian leader’s February 10 visit to the White House.
Beijing could use the lack of deliverables from that meeting to position itself as a more appealing alternative for bilateral cooperation.
Some leaders – like Macron – have viewed Xi, a close friend and diplomatic partner of Russian President Vladimir Putin, as a potential ally that could help push Putin toward peace.
But their relationship has also raised concern, with US officials earlier this year warning that China was considering providing the Kremlin with lethal aid – a claim Beijing has denied.
Brazil, in advance of Lula’s trip, has offered another view: creating – as the country’s foreign minister put it – “a group of mediator countries” including China.
Beijing has to navigate the initiatives in a way that is related to Xi and his world view, observers say.
“Russia is the only major power that shares a lot of (China’s) views on how the world and the global system should look and how various political issues should be handled. He said that Russia is very important to China.
That point was highlighted in another moment on Xi’s recent diplomatic agenda: his travel to Moscow in March for his own state visit – the first since he stepped into a third presidential term that same month.
The relations between China and the US in the past week may not have had a huge impact on peoples view of China, but how Beijing handles that conflict will continue to affect the views of people around the world.
Perceptions about Xi’s potential influence over Putin have provided “leverage that allows (Xi) to get a lot of attention, and perhaps get mileage and support that he would otherwise not have,” said Chong Ja Ian, an associate professor at the National University of Singapore.
The test of whether or not Xi can exert real influence on Putin will be decided by whether or not he can cease the war.
